Europe’s Security Problem: Are NATO States Prepared for Modern Conflict?

Key Takeaways

• NATO has made significant progress in strengthening deterrence since 2022 but European reliance on the United States for key military capabilities remains a structural vulnerability.

• Closer coordination between Russia and China is creating a more complex global security landscape, stretching NATO’s ability to respond in multiple regions.

• To maintain readiness, Europe must invest in transport networks, forward deployments, and joint defence production.

  
  

A Changing Security Environment in Europe

The security landscape in Europe is changing more dramatically than it has in generations. The war in Ukraine, growing strategic coordination between Russia and China and uncertainty surrounding long term United States engagement in European defence have forced NATO states to reassess whether they are prepared for modern conflict. Since 2022, NATO has ramped up its deterrence measures, but European countries may still struggle to act swiftly without substantial support – due to an overreliance on US military capabilities.

The Expanding Russia-China Partnership

One major challenge for NATO is the deepening cooperation between Russia and China. While not a formal alliance, their coordination combines economic support with shared strategic interests. China’s backing has helped cushion Russia economically after the Ukraine invasion, while its actions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait show that European security is increasingly connected to wider global tensions. NATO can no longer consider European threats in isolation; developments in Asia and global supply chains now have direct implications for Europe.

Russia as the Security Challenge

Despite global trends, Russia remains Europe’s most immediate military threat. Since 2022, NATO has refocused on collective defence, making it central to the Alliance’s strategy. At the Madrid Summit, NATO leaders updated their Strategic Concept, naming Russia as the primary security concern and pledging to reinforce forward defences along the eastern flank. NATO officials describe this as a significant recalibration of the Alliance’s deterrence approach.

NATO remains heavily reliant on the United States for intelligence, logistics, airpower, and strategic mobility. If Washington’s attention were diverted elsewhere, European allies might struggle to respond quickly and cohesively. To address this, plans are underway to upgrade roads, railways, and military infrastructure by 2027, boosting deterrence and reassuring frontline states of NATO’s support.

European Defence and Development

European governments are taking steps to address these challenges. In March 2025, the European Union outlined plans to boost defence spending, expand joint procurement, and focus on areas like missile defence, drones, and cyber resilience. These initiatives aim to close capability gaps, reinforce Europe’s defence industry, and reduce long-term dependence on external suppliers.

Operational readiness has also been tested through large scale multinational exercises. The recent Steadfast Defender exercise involved approximately 90,000 personnel and represented NATO’s largest collective defence exercise since the Cold War. Activities took place across multiple domains and regions including maritime operations in northern waters and mobility exercises across continental Europe.

Strengthening Deterrence for the Future

Looking forward, NATO is focusing on ‘deterrence by denial,’ aiming to prevent adversaries from gaining early advantages in a crisis. This involves deploying more forces forward, pre-positioning equipment, and upgrading transport infrastructure along the eastern flank to allow rapid reinforcement. Upgrades to north-south roads and railways will be key for mobility and sustaining operations in a high-intensity conflict.

Progress is being made. However, the effectiveness of NATO’s response to modern threats will ultimately depend on whether European allies can sustain investment improve coordination and strengthen their ability to act collectively in a more uncertain security environment. As the strategic landscape continues to evolve readiness will depend not only on capability, but also on political willingness to work as a collective.