Latin America

Brazil’s first presidential election round has triggered a systemic shock, putting conservative Flávio Bolsonaro in the lead and accelerating a potential pro-market “Blue Wave” in Latin America. Brazil’s dependence on exports to China makes formal withdrawal from BRICS highly unlikely, potentially pushing a right-wing government towards weakening the bloc from within and realigning with Washington.

River systems are not only trade routes but also pathways through which criminal networks and major global powers exert territorial control. Strategic waterways like the Paraguay–Paraná, Mekong, and Congo have become sites for drug trafficking, resource smuggling, and intense competition between Washington and Beijing for strategic resources and geopolitical power.

Colombia's "Total Peace" strategy under Petro failed to reduce armed group activity, rebel numbers nearly doubled to roughly 27,000 fighters by 2026, and 2025 became one of the deadliest years in a decade. Abelardo De La Espriella won the presidency on 21 June by less than one percentage point, pledging a 90-day military offensive and an end to all peace talks.

The Dutch MV Hondius cruise liner has seen several of its passengers become infected with Andes hantavirus, a strain capable of spreading between humans.So far, three individuals have died and 11 have been infected, with all passengers disembarking from the ship. Communications between countries concerning the logistics and permissions needed to address, contain, and treat infected individuals have been difficult. Fears of the virus have rekindled fears about a global pandemi

Despite the violent retaliation by the cartel members, the operation perceived internally to have been a success, both for Mexican authorities and for the future of joint coordination work with Washington. While short-term insecurities were largely stamped down, more violence and clashes are expected in the long term until the cartel finds a new head. Further political, business and security risks cannot be discounted in the weeks ahead especially in the state of Jalis

The U.S. seizure of Venezuelan-linked tankers represents an escalation in sanctions enforcement and maritime attacks. Actions increasingly resemble blockade-like measures, which some observers argue could constitute an act of war under international law. Latin America is deeply divided, with left-leaning governments condemning U.S. actions and right-leaning governments cautiously aligning with Washington.

Brazil’s climate leadership is undercut by policy contradictions: green funds on one hand, new oil drilling on the other. Indigenous exclusion is stoking unrest, exposing firms to social and reputational risk. ESG disclosure rules now demand verifiable, auditable data, heightening scrutiny of supply chains. The Amazon has become a testing ground for both corporate ethics and regulatory resolve.

Milei’s mid-term victory strengthens his political position and reduces near-term impeachment or obstruction risks, providing greater room to advance fiscal and market-oriented reforms. The government is expected to continue inflation reduction, deficit control, and tax/labour reforms, improving regulatory predictability and reducing sovereign risk premia. However, governance and compliance risks have increased due to the ongoing “CryptoGate” investigation and alleged i

President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, during a press conference on 01 September 2025, made several remarks concerning reports that the U.S. government is increasing its military presence in the Southern Caribbean, aimed at targeting drug cartels in the region. Maduro expressed intentions to “declare a republic in arms” if U.S. forces launch an attack against his country. For several weeks, he had raised concerns about this naval deployment, comprising “8 ships with 1,200 mis

Cenit has suspended oil pumping operations following an incident where unknown individuals attacked a section of the 773-kilometrtes Cano Limon-Covenas oil pipeline with explosives on 13 July 2025 in the eastern part of the country. The attack caused spillage near the rural Agua Santa village in Arauca department which prompted the company to activate emergency and contingency plan to mitigate any environmental risks.

CONFEMIN miners have been staging fresh protests across various regions of the country, particularly in the regions of Arequipa, Cusco, and Apurímac. These demonstrations are part months long demonstrations demanding that the government extend the deadline for regularising informal mining activities and to suspend transportation for large formal mining companies. Miners have been gathering in front of Congress in Lima to voice their concerns.

With growing political will, multiple countries are recognising and developing solutions to the challenges posed by grey zone warfare. However, the matter will require ongoing multilateral cooperation and investment. This will be made harder by actors who continue to refine new methods and technologies to undermine and neutralise countermeasures.

Tensions have escalated in the indigenous community of Arimae, Darién province, eastern Panama, after officers from the national Border Service (SENAFRONT) clashed with locals from the Emberá Wounaan during a protest on 05 June 2025. For nearly two months, demonstrators, including teachers, workers from (construction and banana industries), students, and healthcare workers, have barricaded and erected roadblocks along a major road that connects Panama to other Latin American

Authorities often downplay the influence of major drug cartels in the city. They point to the fact that there are over 80,000 security cameras and a strong police presence in the city. Yet, a recent report from the US Drug Enforcement Administration indicated that powerful cartels, such as the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG have a significant presence in the city but maintain a low profile. Politically motivated violence targeting politicians and government officials is commo

The incident highlights an ongoing threat of violence against LGBTQ+ communities in Brazil, particularly during major events that celebrate inclusion. The suspects disguised themselves as “Little Monsters” on social media. This name is mostly used by fans of Gaga, and using it likely helped them avoid detection online. The suspect’s plan to target the LGBTQ+ community likely reflects reflects a rise the far-right extremism in the country.

Gang members from the Viv Ansanm coalition have continued to expand their territory and are believed to control over 85% of the capital, Port-au-Prince. Gang violence has led to thousands of deaths and displacement. U.N. sources reported that approximately 4,200 people have been killed and 1,356 injured between July 2024 and February 2025. Criminal activity has also caused major disruptions as they attack public infrastructure, including government buildings, hospitals, and m

Gangs have consistently targeted journalists in the country. In December 2024, two journalists were killed when gang members opened fire at a government press conference held to announce the reopening of the country’s main general hospital in Port-au-Prince. On 14 March 2025, consular services at the French Embassy were closed due to the recent wave of violence in the capital. Between mid-February and early March 2025, more than 42,000 people have been displaced from their