Eastern Europe

Over the night of Tuesday 09 to Wednesday 10 September 2025, 19 Russian drones were launched into Polish airspace as part of a broader drone attack on Ukraine. The incident required a multinational response from NATO, with several drones being shot down. Fears are growing that Putin is seeking to portray an image of power amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, while also testing Western resolve.

Russia’s security and intelligence services have intensified sabotage and subversion operations across Eastern Europe, employing tactics from GPS signal jamming to arson attacks. The recent signal jamming attack conducted against Ursula von der Leyen’s plane in southern Bulgaria highlights the growing extent to which Russian operatives are willing and able to target high-profile political figures.

With growing political will, multiple countries are recognising and developing solutions to the challenges posed by grey zone warfare. However, the matter will require ongoing multilateral cooperation and investment. This will be made harder by actors who continue to refine new methods and technologies to undermine and neutralise countermeasures.

Renewed peacebuilding efforts by the Trump administration are deemed as unlikely to increase regional stability in their targeted areas. ·         President Trump remains highly motivated by the desire to be perceived as a “dealmaker” by his domestic supporter base, and to secure concessions for his family’s business operations.

Opinion polls suggest the race between the two candidates will be very close. Nawrocki, 42, targets conservatives, rural areas and voters frustrated with European Union (EU) policy, while Trzaskowski, 53, appeals to urban, pro-European voters and the centre-left.

On 04 May 2025, Romania held its first round of the rescheduled presidential elections after the Constitutional Court annulled the results of the first round of the November 2024 presidential election due to evidence of a Russian interference campaign. The November elections saw far-right, pro-Russia candidate Călin Georgescu winning the election, but reports of “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” during the election period raised concerns about election integrity, prompting

UK's weaknesses in maritime security, indicating that similar threats could arise throughout Europe. The risk of cyberattacks from Russian espionage threatens critical infrastructure in Germany and other European countries. The attempt to access a webcam suggests that Russian users may have been aware of the attack and wanted to observe it live. While investigations did not find evidence that the Mannheim attack was orchestrated by Russia, German officials still consider i

Intelligence Update:   On 29 March 2025, President Aleksandar Vucic stated that experts from the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB)...

The opposition could leverage this incident to attract support from various groups that are dissatisfied with the government. The government may introduce new laws aimed at curbing dissent and to consolidate its power. The recent protests may evolve into a prolonged period of instability if the government fails to address the underlying problems. Members of some political parties who disagree may shift their alliances, with some trying to distance themselves from governm