North/Horn of Africa

The targeting of undersea cable infrastructure highlights the growing use of grey zone warfare by Western adversaries such as China and Russia. Nations targeted by grey zone tactics are best positioned to mitigate the threat through collaboration. In the case of protecting deep-sea cables, solutions include enhanced surveillance, AI integration, and deploying UUVs. The multitude of challenges posed by grey zone warfare demands ongoing multilateral cooperation and investment. This will be made harder by actors who continue to refine new methods and technologies to undermine and neutralise countermeasures.

Global Deep Dive - Undersea Cable Sabotage Underscores Ongoing Threat of Grey Zone Warfare

With growing political will, multiple countries are recognising and developing solutions to the challenges posed by grey zone warfare. However, the matter will require ongoing multilateral cooperation and investment. This will be made harder by actors who continue to refine new methods and technologies to undermine and neutralise countermeasures.

Jun 275 min read

Tensions have flared in Kenya over the death of Albert Ojwang, the social media influencer who died in police custody after being arrested for "false publication" linked to social media posts critical of the Deputy Inspector General. Police initially claimed he died "after hitting his head against a cell wall.” Protests erupted on 12 and 17 June 2025 in Nairobi as the protesters accused the police of brutality. The protests came as the country marks a year since mass ‘Generation Z’-led protests over the economy and the 2024 finance bill.

Kenya – Public outrage over blogger’s death sparks fresh anti-government protests

Anti-government sentiments are likely to intensify as public pressure continues to mount on Kenyan authorities. As the situation remains unstable, sporadic or planned protests are likely to spring up in areas such as Nairobi and Mombasa, increasing Kenya’s country risk profile. This is likely to result in disruptions to business operations and travel within the Central Business District. Violence is also likely, as government security forces often respond with force.

Jun 204 min read

Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) has in recent weeks increased attacks in northern and central Mali. Over the past few days, JNIM, a jihadist group aligned with al-Qaeda, claimed attacks on military installations near the borders with Burkina Faso and Niger. Recurrent attacks have highlighted security gaps between Burkina Faso and Mali along their shared border. Mali has been grappling with a security crisis since 2012, when an Islamist insurgency began in the country’s north following a Tuareg separatist rebellion. The security situation in the western Sahel has seen a significant decline over the years, which is currently regarded as the epicentre of global terrorism.

Mali - JNIM’s Escalation in Timbuktu Seeks Strategically Significant Target

On 02 June 2025, JNIM launched a series of coordinated attacks on key military targets in Timbuktu. The group claimed responsibility for attacking the Sidin Bekaye camp in the city and three checkpoints in its northern and eastern sectors. A suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack on a military barracks in the city centre and an artillery strike were aimed at Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and Russian Africa Corps personnel stationed at the Timbuktu mili

Jun 93 min read

Tunisia: President appoints new PM Zeneri to replace Maddouri in shock move

Despite its commitment to self-reliance, Tunisia's economic situation has not improved, and without external financial support, the country may continue to face slow growth. In the coming weeks, Zenzri is expected to announce fresh measures to tackle urgent financial and economic issues, but significant changes will take time to implement. Additionally, as Saied evaluates the government's performance, he may consider further reshuffles to ensure effective leadership in

Mar 212 min read