North/Horn of Africa

Sudan: Relations With UAE Deteriorate Amid Civil War and Proxy Power Struggles

Key Takeaways The breakdown of diplomatic relations between Sudan and the UAE marks a significant shift from a historically strong...

Aug 116 min read

Raid in Giza indicates that the Hasm Movement is attempting to regroup and resume militant operations in Egypt after a period of inactivity. Egyptian authorities are expected to increase counterterrorism measures and surveillance, especially in previously known hotspots. While the current threat level is assessed as low to moderate, the potential for targeted attacks remains based on Hasm’s previous modus operandi.

Egypt: Giza Raid Highlights Possible Resurgence of the Hasm Movement

he arrests suggest that Hasm retains operational capability and the group’s intentions to resurface, contrary to previous reports that the movement has been suppressed. Hasm’s propaganda video also strongly suggests efforts to ramp up recruitment by appealing to disillusioned youth. Egyptian authorities are likely to intensify counterterrorism operations in areas such as Cairo, Faiyum, Damietta, and Beheira.

Jul 284 min read

Many have welcomed a U.S.-Africa partnership; however, scepticism remains as this could negatively affect countries that are more aligned with China, Russia, or BRICS. Countries with far less bargaining power and smaller economies could be left without a share of the “investment cake”, resulting in fragmentation in U.S.-Africa trade relations. Any deal with the U.S. is likely to result in partnerships and investments within the private sector, infrastructural development, and security cooperation.

“Trade, not aid”: Trump Hosts Five African Leaders in Washington

U.S. President Donald Trump hosted leaders from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal at the White House for a three-day summit that began with a working lunch in the State Dining Room on 09 July 2025. A high-stakes summit designed to reassess American influence across a continent. Each of these countries is currently facing a 10% tariff on exports to the U.S.

Jul 115 min read

The targeting of undersea cable infrastructure highlights the growing use of grey zone warfare by Western adversaries such as China and Russia. Nations targeted by grey zone tactics are best positioned to mitigate the threat through collaboration. In the case of protecting deep-sea cables, solutions include enhanced surveillance, AI integration, and deploying UUVs. The multitude of challenges posed by grey zone warfare demands ongoing multilateral cooperation and investment. This will be made harder by actors who continue to refine new methods and technologies to undermine and neutralise countermeasures.

Global Deep Dive - Undersea Cable Sabotage Underscores Ongoing Threat of Grey Zone Warfare

With growing political will, multiple countries are recognising and developing solutions to the challenges posed by grey zone warfare. However, the matter will require ongoing multilateral cooperation and investment. This will be made harder by actors who continue to refine new methods and technologies to undermine and neutralise countermeasures.

Jun 275 min read

Tensions have flared in Kenya over the death of Albert Ojwang, the social media influencer who died in police custody after being arrested for "false publication" linked to social media posts critical of the Deputy Inspector General. Police initially claimed he died "after hitting his head against a cell wall.” Protests erupted on 12 and 17 June 2025 in Nairobi as the protesters accused the police of brutality. The protests came as the country marks a year since mass ‘Generation Z’-led protests over the economy and the 2024 finance bill.

Kenya – Public outrage over blogger’s death sparks fresh anti-government protests

Anti-government sentiments are likely to intensify as public pressure continues to mount on Kenyan authorities. As the situation remains unstable, sporadic or planned protests are likely to spring up in areas such as Nairobi and Mombasa, increasing Kenya’s country risk profile. This is likely to result in disruptions to business operations and travel within the Central Business District. Violence is also likely, as government security forces often respond with force.

Jun 204 min read

Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) has in recent weeks increased attacks in northern and central Mali. Over the past few days, JNIM, a jihadist group aligned with al-Qaeda, claimed attacks on military installations near the borders with Burkina Faso and Niger. Recurrent attacks have highlighted security gaps between Burkina Faso and Mali along their shared border. Mali has been grappling with a security crisis since 2012, when an Islamist insurgency began in the country’s north following a Tuareg separatist rebellion. The security situation in the western Sahel has seen a significant decline over the years, which is currently regarded as the epicentre of global terrorism.

Mali - JNIM’s Escalation in Timbuktu Seeks Strategically Significant Target

On 02 June 2025, JNIM launched a series of coordinated attacks on key military targets in Timbuktu. The group claimed responsibility for attacking the Sidin Bekaye camp in the city and three checkpoints in its northern and eastern sectors. A suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack on a military barracks in the city centre and an artillery strike were aimed at Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and Russian Africa Corps personnel stationed at the Timbuktu mili

Jun 93 min read

Tunisia: President appoints new PM Zeneri to replace Maddouri in shock move

Despite its commitment to self-reliance, Tunisia's economic situation has not improved, and without external financial support, the country may continue to face slow growth. In the coming weeks, Zenzri is expected to announce fresh measures to tackle urgent financial and economic issues, but significant changes will take time to implement. Additionally, as Saied evaluates the government's performance, he may consider further reshuffles to ensure effective leadership in

Mar 212 min read

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