North/Horn of Africa

Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have demonstrated how relatively low-cost drone and missile attacks can generate disproportionate economic disruption across global supply chains, shipping lines, and energy markets.

The sea has always been a space of trade, crime and power. What is changing is the density of threats and the number of actors willing to use vessels as instruments of leverage. Piracy has not disappeared, but it is no longer the whole story. Future maritime risk map will be shaped as much by states, sanctions, militias and militarised law enforcement as by pirates with weapons and ladders.

Western Sahara is a territory disputed between the Sahrawis, claiming independence under the Polisario Front, and Morocco. ● Morocco proposed an autonomy plan in 2007 that was recently voted on and widely recognised by UN member states in 2025. ● Increasing international backing of Morocco and the Polisario Front’s growing openness to peace discussions indicate a future of economic and political stability after decades of contentious relations.

Recent anti-government protests, often labelled as “Gen Z” movements, have been driven by deep-seated discontent with poor governance, corruption, economic inequality and high unemployment rates, which affect young populations. Over the years, social media has changed the face of activism as various platforms have evolved into crucial elements in mass mobilisation and content dissemination.

Key Takeaways The breakdown of diplomatic relations between Sudan and the UAE marks a significant shift from a historically strong...

he arrests suggest that Hasm retains operational capability and the group’s intentions to resurface, contrary to previous reports that the movement has been suppressed. Hasm’s propaganda video also strongly suggests efforts to ramp up recruitment by appealing to disillusioned youth. Egyptian authorities are likely to intensify counterterrorism operations in areas such as Cairo, Faiyum, Damietta, and Beheira.

U.S. President Donald Trump hosted leaders from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal at the White House for a three-day summit that began with a working lunch in the State Dining Room on 09 July 2025. A high-stakes summit designed to reassess American influence across a continent. Each of these countries is currently facing a 10% tariff on exports to the U.S.

With growing political will, multiple countries are recognising and developing solutions to the challenges posed by grey zone warfare. However, the matter will require ongoing multilateral cooperation and investment. This will be made harder by actors who continue to refine new methods and technologies to undermine and neutralise countermeasures.

Anti-government sentiments are likely to intensify as public pressure continues to mount on Kenyan authorities. As the situation remains unstable, sporadic or planned protests are likely to spring up in areas such as Nairobi and Mombasa, increasing Kenya’s country risk profile. This is likely to result in disruptions to business operations and travel within the Central Business District. Violence is also likely, as government security forces often respond with force.

On 02 June 2025, JNIM launched a series of coordinated attacks on key military targets in Timbuktu. The group claimed responsibility for attacking the Sidin Bekaye camp in the city and three checkpoints in its northern and eastern sectors. A suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack on a military barracks in the city centre and an artillery strike were aimed at Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and Russian Africa Corps personnel stationed at the Timbuktu mili

Despite its commitment to self-reliance, Tunisia's economic situation has not improved, and without external financial support, the country may continue to face slow growth. In the coming weeks, Zenzri is expected to announce fresh measures to tackle urgent financial and economic issues, but significant changes will take time to implement. Additionally, as Saied evaluates the government's performance, he may consider further reshuffles to ensure effective leadership in