Mali - JNIM’s Escalation in Timbuktu Seeks Strategically Significant Target

Introduction

Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) has in recent weeks increased attacks in northern and central Mali. Over the past few days, JNIM, a jihadist group aligned with al-Qaeda, claimed attacks on military installations near the borders with Burkina Faso and Niger. Recurrent attacks have highlighted security gaps between Burkina Faso and Mali along their shared border. Mali has been grappling with a security crisis since 2012, when an Islamist insurgency began in the country’s north following a Tuareg separatist rebellion. The security situation in the western Sahel has seen a significant decline over the years, which is currently regarded as the epicentre of global terrorism.

Recent terror attacks in Mali

On 02 June 2025, JNIM launched a series of coordinated attacks on key military targets in Timbuktu. The group claimed responsibility for attacking the Sidin Bekaye camp in the city and three checkpoints in its northern and eastern sectors. A suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack on a military barracks in the city centre and an artillery strike were aimed at Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and Russian Africa Corps personnel stationed at the Timbuktu military Airport. The Malian Army reported that the attack was repelled, resulting in the deaths of 13 jihadists and the capture of vehicles and weapons. The attack occurred less than 24 hours after a major attack on a military base in Boulikessi, which left at least 30 soldiers dead. In late May, JNIM militants killed 40 soldiers during an attack on a base in Dioura.

The rise of JNIM and counterterrorism efforts

Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) is a coalition of Salafi-jihadist insurgent groups, including Ansar Dine, Katibat Macina, al-Mourabitoun, and the Sahara branch of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) operating in the Sahel. Over the years, JNIM has intensified the frequency and scale of attacks against government-controlled areas, with most attacks being concentrated near the Mali-Burkina Faso border. It has expanded its recruitment activities and control of territory, pushing southward toward Benin, Ghana, and Togo. During some of these attacks, the group loots money and weapons from the customs posts and gendarmerie posts.

Formed in 2017, JNIM has expanded its operating territory across West Africa while attacking civilians and local and international security forces. JNIM has often capitalised on the grievances of local communities. In some instances, the militant group gives civilians an ultimatum: accept jihadist governance, relocate to non-jihadist zones, or face violence. In Mali, JNIM has established itself in the northern Koulikoro region and the western Segou region.

The junta-led military is known to frequently understate the severity of militant attacks. Local media reported that FAMa’s drone missile supply is depleted, with footage of resupplies entering the country the day after the Timbuktu attacks. The Timbuktu military airport reportedly housed Turkish-made TB2 drones. Authorities also instituted and extended a curfew in Timbuktu to stabilise the situation.

In recent times, Wagner, the Russian private military company, has assisted the Malian Armed Forces and contributed significantly to scaling up military operations and the return of FAMa to areas from which it had previously withdrawn. Despite some reported successes, human rights groups and analysts regularly accuse both Wagner and the Malian army of committing abuses against civilians. On 06 June 2025, Wagner announced that it had completed its mission supporting Mali’s military junta in its fight against Islamist insurgents. Russian forces are expected to continue to play an active role in Mali’s security landscape through the Africa Corps, the Kremlin's armed wing.

Assessment

The latest attacks highlight JNIM’s continued operational capacity to launch coordinated and multiple attacks against military positions. Timbuktu is a strategically significant target which hosts both military bases and the Timbuktu airport, serving as a key hub for supply routes across northern Mali. The attempted infiltration of the city reveals a potential escalation in JNIM’s ambitions in Mali. Additionally, the coordinated strikes suggest that at least two cells operated hand in hand. The group’s operations raise coup risks, which are likely to reduce the junta’s influence among the local populations and within the military. Colonel Assimi Goita, who seized power in 2020, promised to restore order in the country.