Global

An energy cooperation agreement between Syria and Türkiye presents new opportunities for energy supply chain diversification within the Middle East. The reopening of the Kirkuk–Baniyas oil pipeline and construction of a 400-kilovolt transmission line will likely foster closer energy and political cooperation between Türkiye and Syria. Türkiye is likely to perceive the dissolution of the PKK as an opportunity to expand energy and security activity within the Türkiye-Syria bord

Though a successful counterterrorism operation, the recent arrests of five Iranian nationals underscore the persistent threat of state-sponsored terrorism across the UK. Geopolitically motivated state-sponsored terrorism is a growing challenge across the West, demanding robust international cooperation to meet shared counter-terrorism objectives. As global tensions intensify, state-sponsored terrorism is likely to remain a persistent and complex challenge.

On 04 May 2025, Romania held its first round of the rescheduled presidential elections after the Constitutional Court annulled the results of the first round of the November 2024 presidential election due to evidence of a Russian interference campaign. The November elections saw far-right, pro-Russia candidate Călin Georgescu winning the election, but reports of “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” during the election period raised concerns about election integrity, prompting

The incident highlights an ongoing threat of violence against LGBTQ+ communities in Brazil, particularly during major events that celebrate inclusion. The suspects disguised themselves as “Little Monsters” on social media. This name is mostly used by fans of Gaga, and using it likely helped them avoid detection online. The suspect’s plan to target the LGBTQ+ community likely reflects reflects a rise the far-right extremism in the country.

For many companies operating in the broader region, the prospect of greater Russian influence will be unwelcome. With terrorism continuing to pose a threat, companies operating in Central Asia face an ongoing threat to their infrastructure. Instability in Afghanistan and the Taliban’s limited ability to contain ISK could easily lead to cross-border attacks or unrest in other Central Asian states. Targeting oil and gas infrastructure could cause significant economic damage and

Australian elections are typically peaceful, and the transfer of power has been historically peaceful, but there remains a potential for minor civil unrest. The Labour Party is tipped to win the elections, and Anthony Albanese is likely to continue in his role as prime minister for a second term.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced the reversal of the proposed Value-Added Tax (VAT) increase, confirming that the VAT rate will stay at 15% from 01 May 2025. The decision, announced on 24 April 2025, follows widespread discontent over its potential impacts on the average South African and how it would disproportionately affect low-income households already struggling with the rising cost of living.

India has accused Pakistan of being involved in the attack, which Pakistan denies. India also threatened a “loud and clear” response to the incident. More than 1,500 people have been arrested by the police across Jammu and Kashmir, and several demonstrations were held in Srinagar over the attack. On 25 April 2025, media reported indicated that both sides exchanged gunfire along the Line of Control, which separates the two countries, but the report did not specify the exact lo

On 24 April 90,000 people filed past the Pontiff's body following an 8 hour wait for access to pay respects to him. Factors including strong media attention, the religious element, and large crowds increase the appeal of the event as a target for Islamist terror groups. Travel disruptions are highly likely and visitors should expect closures, restrictions, and huge crowds. The Pope will continue to lie in state until the evening of 25 April 2025 and at around 1900hr

Clashes between rival gangs have been reported from Edinburgh and Glasgow over drug territories with violence levels that are rapidly escalating. Methods used between the rivals have been firebombs, firearms, weapons. The past six weeks have seen over a dozen brutal attacks take place with private properties and children caught in the crossfire of the organised crime that the Police Federation admitted there are not enough officers to deal with.

UK's weaknesses in maritime security, indicating that similar threats could arise throughout Europe. The risk of cyberattacks from Russian espionage threatens critical infrastructure in Germany and other European countries. The attempt to access a webcam suggests that Russian users may have been aware of the attack and wanted to observe it live. While investigations did not find evidence that the Mannheim attack was orchestrated by Russia, German officials still consider i

With an election on the near horizon, the country’s domestic political upheaval is entering a new phase. Yoon’s conspiracy theories have taken root and far-right extremism is on the rise at a time of intense division, excessive partisanship, mass protests, and populism. With the country’s history of protests and demonstrations, such incidents are likely to continue. The volatility brought by Donald Trump’s re-election has added further volatility to already virulent global th

The “Revolutionary Class Struggle", a newly emerged extremist group, claimed responsibility for the incident. The group made their claim via a post on the "Athens Indymedia" website and also took credit for a similar incident involving explosives at the Labour Ministry building in Athens in February 2024.

Gang members from the Viv Ansanm coalition have continued to expand their territory and are believed to control over 85% of the capital, Port-au-Prince. Gang violence has led to thousands of deaths and displacement. U.N. sources reported that approximately 4,200 people have been killed and 1,356 injured between July 2024 and February 2025. Criminal activity has also caused major disruptions as they attack public infrastructure, including government buildings, hospitals, and m

Intelligence Update:   On 29 March 2025, President Aleksandar Vucic stated that experts from the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB)...

The proposed amendments would give police the ability to impose conditions on protests, including altering protest routes and timings to prevent disruption to those attending places of worship. This comes in the wake of violent incidents during the summer of 2024, when religious venues including mosques and synagogues were targeted by protests, making it risky or impossible for worshippers to practice their faith peacefully.

The Russian ships, which included destroyer RFN Severomorsk, landing ship RFN Alexander Shabalin, and two transport ships, MV Sparta IV and MV Siyanie Severa, were sailing east towards the Baltic Sea. This comes after the Royal Navy began an operation on 16 March 2025 after tanker Tidesurge had monitored the destroyer in the North Sea and through the Strait of Dover. HMS Somerset and her Merlin helicopter from 814 Naval Air Squadron then began shadowing Russian task group's e

The opposition could leverage this incident to attract support from various groups that are dissatisfied with the government. The government may introduce new laws aimed at curbing dissent and to consolidate its power. The recent protests may evolve into a prolonged period of instability if the government fails to address the underlying problems. Members of some political parties who disagree may shift their alliances, with some trying to distance themselves from governm

Over the past month, the territorial control of the RSF has been shrinking rapidly in favour of the army across several states, including Khartoum, Al-Jazira, White Nile, North Kordofan, Sennar and Blue Nile. The army and RSF have been fighting since mid-April 2023. More than 20,000 people have been killed, and 14 million have been displaced, according to the UN and local authorities. Research from US universities, however, estimates the death toll at around 130,000.

Despite its commitment to self-reliance, Tunisia's economic situation has not improved, and without external financial support, the country may continue to face slow growth. In the coming weeks, Zenzri is expected to announce fresh measures to tackle urgent financial and economic issues, but significant changes will take time to implement. Additionally, as Saied evaluates the government's performance, he may consider further reshuffles to ensure effective leadership in