Asia Pacific

Beijing has escalated pressure across multiple fronts by issuing travel warnings, launching coast guard patrols near the Senkaku Islands, increasing military activity around Taiwan, and reinstating a seafood import ban. Takaichi has adopted an unusually assertive stance toward China compared with her predecessors, while simultaneously pursuing closer security ties with South Korea to address shared regional threats. China could escalate to more disruptive measures, such as ra

Trump and Takaichi’s meeting on 28 October enabled significant trade deals on rare earth extraction and processing, as well as nuclear energy development projects. ●       Trump’s APEC meeting with Xi on 30 October marked a temporary stop to the Chinese rare earth curbs. ●       As rare earths are increasingly sought and needed in manufacturing modern technologies, a wider variety of industries are affected by movement and disruptions in the rare earth supply chain.

Contemplating a future conflict involving China tends to evoke scenarios such as an invasion of Taiwan, a border escalation with India, or even a confrontation with the United States. However, with Beijing’s increasing assertiveness on the international stage reshaping power dynamics, the number of potential flashpoints is growing.

On 31 July 2025, China raised concerns over potential security risks in Nvidia’s H20 artificial intelligence (AI) chip, casting uncertainty over the US company's sales prospects in China. In particular, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) took issue with the proposal for the chips to include tracking and positioning functions.

Despite war appearing to be an unlikely outcome, the prospect has become more realistic than a few months ago. Considering Thailand’s overwhelming military strength relative to Cambodia, it is unsurprising that Phnom Penh would seek to avoid escalating the matter too far at the current time. Additionally, while there have been clashes over Preah Vihear before, a full-scale war has not broken out yet.

If Xi Jinping’s political standing weakens or China’s internal challenges deepen, the appeal of escalating tensions over Taiwan as a means of distraction could grow. Alternatively, if Beijing concludes that its military advantage over Taiwan is at its peak and that waiting would risk a shift in the strategic balance, it may be judged that it is now or never. There are multiple scenarios under which an invasion could be triggered. But just how long China is willing to wait rem

With growing political will, multiple countries are recognising and developing solutions to the challenges posed by grey zone warfare. However, the matter will require ongoing multilateral cooperation and investment. This will be made harder by actors who continue to refine new methods and technologies to undermine and neutralise countermeasures.

Recent US- China trade talks in London followed a rare 90-minute phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at easing trade tensions. Since an agreement on 12 May 2025 to roll back the majority of the triple-digit tariffs, resolving trade tensions has emerged as a shared priority. One major reason for Washington’s interest in coming to the table is Beijing’s utilisation of export controls on a range of critical rare earth minerals and

Leader of the Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, secured a landslide victory in South Korea’s snap presidential election, becoming the country’s 21st president. Although his victory provides a clear illustration of the population’s will for a change in leadership, Lee is inheriting a difficult situation. With deep domestic political divisions, a sharp economic downturn, great power foreign policy struggles, and escalating threats from North Korea to manage.

China is developing a huge new military command centre that will dwarf the size of the Pentagon. The project underscores Beijing’s military ambitions at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions and endemic economic challenges. The project suggests Beijing is increasingly prioritising the development of China’s warfighting capability. The plans could provide further evidence signalling the growing threat posed by China, particularly to Taiwan and in the South China Sea.

Australian elections are typically peaceful, and the transfer of power has been historically peaceful, but there remains a potential for minor civil unrest. The Labour Party is tipped to win the elections, and Anthony Albanese is likely to continue in his role as prime minister for a second term.

With an election on the near horizon, the country’s domestic political upheaval is entering a new phase. Yoon’s conspiracy theories have taken root and far-right extremism is on the rise at a time of intense division, excessive partisanship, mass protests, and populism. With the country’s history of protests and demonstrations, such incidents are likely to continue. The volatility brought by Donald Trump’s re-election has added further volatility to already virulent global th