South Korea: Post-election Analysis - A New Era or More of the Same?

Key Takeaways:

• The election outcome demonstrates a strong will among the South Korean population for a change in leadership following the political chaos caused by Yoon’s failed imposition of martial law.

• Lee faces a multitude of challenges, ranging from Sino-American strategic competition and North Korea to a politically divided domestic landscape and economic issues.

• With a significant majority in the National Assembly, the Democratic Party will be able to pursue its progressive legislative agenda with relative ease.

• Lee’s comparatively pro-China stance, firmer approach to Japan, and more accommodating strategy toward North Korea could carry significant regional geopolitical implications, likely to be viewed favourably by Beijing and Pyongyang.

The Road to a Snap Election

Former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s term was characterised by controversy. Growing inequality, rising prices, and accusations of censorship, combined with his vetoing of bills intended to support farmers and investigate his wife’s financial dealings, made Yoon a highly unpopular leader. As of the second week of December 2024, only 11% of respondents approved of Yoon’s performance in office, while 85% disapproved.

After the main opposition Democratic Party won a landslide majority in the April 2024 parliamentary election, Yoon became a lame-duck president and was reduced to vetoing bills from the opposition party. Considering Yoon’s diminished political authority, when he declared martial law at 2300hrs (local) on 03 December 2024, many viewed it as a desperate attempt to reassume control. His claims that the move was necessary to protect the country from “North Korea’s communist forces” and “eliminate anti-state elements” failed to convince the public. Consequently, just hours after Yoon’s announcement, lawmakers forced their way into the National Assembly to vote it down at 0100hrs (local) on 04 December 2025 as thousands of protestors gathered outside. While martial law is always a drastic decision, considering South Korea’s dark history of military rule, which is still within living memory for many, it is unsurprising that Yoon’s move went down badly.

In the weeks that followed, South Korea was plunged into chaos characterised by police confrontations, protests, and political gridlock. While the first attempt to impeach Yoon on 07 December 2024 narrowly failed after members of the People Power Party (PPP) boycotted the vote, a second attempt on 14 December 2024 succeeded after PPP lawmakers were granted the freedom to vote. Despite the clarity of the outcome, the situation remained anything but straightforward. In Yoon’s stead, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo stepped in as acting President, only to be impeached less than two weeks later on 27 December 2024 for attempting to block the appointment of three additional judges to the Constitutional Court. The decision was widely seen as an attempt to maximise Yoon’s odds of surviving the impeachment vote. Han was later reinstated on 24 March 2025.

The role of the police in the unfolding chaos was also repeatedly called into question. On 11 December 2024, the police raided Yoon’s offices only to find themselves blocked from securing critical documents by security. On the same day, Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun, who was detained for his role in the martial law, attempted to commit suicide while in custody. Then, on 03 January 2025, a 150-strong force of police officers failed to arrest Yoon at his presidential residence after a six-hour standoff. A combination of pro-Yoon supporters and presidential security agents stood in the way of law enforcement. Ultimately, it required a force of 3,200 officers to besiege the compound and arrest Yoon on 15 January 2025. Despite the extensive efforts, Yoon was released on 08 March 2025 on legal technicalities. However, on April 04 2025, after months of deliberating, the Constitutional Court unanimously voted to uphold Yoon’s impeachment, triggering a snap election.

The Election: A New Mandate for South Korea

On 04 June 2025, the Leader of the Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, secured a landslide victory in South Korea’s snap presidential election, becoming the country’s 21st president. In the previous presidential election, Yoon narrowly edged out Lee in the closest contest in the country’s history. The 61-year-old left-wing politician received 49.42% of the vote, ahead of runner-up Kim Moon-soo, a member of the same party as Yoon, who obtained 41.15%. The turnout was the highest for a presidential election since 1997, with 79.4% of the population casting their vote. In his inauguration speech, Lee pledged to “unite the people” and build a "flexible, pragmatic government" after months of political chaos. Although his victory provides a clear illustration of the population’s will for a change in leadership, Lee is inheriting a difficult situation. With deep domestic political divisions, a sharp economic downturn, great power foreign policy struggles, and escalating threats from North Korea to manage, following through on his policy promises could prove difficult. Additionally, as a snap election, Lee has not enjoyed the two-month transition period usually afforded to new leaders. Making a swift impact will be crucial to restoring political stability in South Korea.

Domestic Divides

Despite Lee’s pledges concerning national unity, he faces a profound domestic dilemma. Populist elements and deeply rooted partisanship are entrenched in South Korea’s political environment. While some South Koreans view the election as evidence of the country’s democratic processes functioning, others have adopted a different stance. Former President Yoon still possesses a strong and highly vocal supporter base, particularly among young male voters and the elderly. Their tendency to push strong right-wing narratives and conspiracy theories, such as the belief that Yoon's party was a victim of election fraud, is unlikely to diminish. Although South Korea has a new leader, many are likely to refuse to accept his rule.

During the campaign, the Democratic Party stated that, if elected, it would seek to dissolve the PPP because it was headed by Yoon when he declared martial law. The new government has also proposed legislative changes to protect Lee against legal challenges that nearly prevented him from running. Lee has been embroiled in a string of legal cases, including allegations of bribery, the illegal transfer of funds to North Korea, and making false statements during election campaigns. In November 2024, he was sentenced to one year in prison, suspended for two years, after being found guilty of breaching election laws. In March 2025, Lee was cleared by an appeals court, permitting him to be a future presidential candidate. Although this was overturned in May 2025 by South Korea’s Supreme Court, which returned the case for retrial, the hearing was postponed until after the election. Lee’s political baggage, coupled with a desire to punish the PPP further, introduces the possibility of political manoeuvring that could be perceived as undermining fair political processes. It has become common practice in South Korea for new presidents to investigate their predecessors in the name of “liquidating the past wrong”, a common phrase in the country. The result has been a vicious cycle of political revenge. Should Lee indulge in this, with South Korea’s reputation for mass mobilisation, anti-government demonstrations could reemerge despite the change in administration. Businesses and travellers are advised to maintain a heightened awareness of the potential for demonstrations.

Economic Hurdles

Out of the multitude of challenges facing Lee, some analysts consider the economy to be the “top priority”. On 29 May 2025, the Bank reduced the 2025 growth forecast by 1.5% to 0.8%; this is only the fourth time the forecast has dipped below 1% since 1987. The Sino-American trade war, involving South Korea’s two most important trading partners, has had a detrimental impact on Seoul’s export-led economy. Total global exports fell 1.3% in May 2025 from one year earlier and exports to the US dropped by 8.1%. The interim government that preceded Lee made no progress in alleviating the raft of sanctions imposed by US President Donald Trump, including the 10% baseline tariffs, 25% auto tariffs, and 50% aluminium and steel tariffs. With the 90-day pause on the US’ sweeping global tariffs set to end on 08 July 2025, Lee must find a way to engage with the White House.

When Lee ran for president in 2022, he had a heavier focus on left-leaning policies that prioritised fairer wealth distribution and a substantial increase in social spending. During the most recent election campaign, he shifted toward the centre, prioritising growth rather than distribution and watering down plans to introduce universal income. Nevertheless, his policies are expected to remain aligned with progressive principles and Lee could shift further toward the left now that he has taken office. With a sizeable majority in parliament, Lee will have the freedom to push his liberal agenda forward. Some analysts have even referred to the election as a “watershed moment”, warning that Lee now wields vast amounts of power. Lee is expected to increase funding for welfare programmes and policies that address high living costs, joblessness, and corruption. Analysts also anticipate an increase in government spending to support households, SMEs, and government-led growth. The coming budget is expected to be expansionary, with a significant investment in AI and R&D.

While Lee may be able to address some economic challenges, deeper structural problems are projected to remain problematic without any easy solutions available. With South Korea having the world's lowest birth rate, the country is becoming a "super-aged" society. Such a demographic composition impedes economic growth by reducing the labour force and straining the pension system. It is estimated that South Korea’s labour force could shrink by over 25% by 2050. Strategies such as boosting AI adoption and increasing labour participation (particularly among female and older workers) can offset the impact of an ageing population. However, it remains to be seen whether Lee implements such reforms.

A Tilt Toward Beijing? Navigating the Sino-American Great Power Rivalry

For South Korea, sitting precariously at the point where two conflicting spheres of influence meet has required a delicate balancing act across administrations. Traditionally, South Korea has pursued “strategic ambiguity” to avoid an adversarial relationship with China and limit any dilution in its alliance with the US. While South Korea has a shared history of military, economic, and diplomatic cooperation with Washington, China has traditionally been South Korea’s greatest trade partner. Beijing’s sway over North Korea further complicates matters as closer ties with Beijing could mitigate the threat posed by Pyongyang, while deteriorating relations could have the opposite effect. Analysts widely acknowledge that the Sino-American strategic rivalry is set to escalate. Lee must proceed with caution as heightened tensions inevitably lead both sides to scrutinise Seoul’s actions and their impact on the great power competition.

Liberals tend to be more wary of South Korea’s traditional allies, such as the US, compared with the conservatives. It is widely anticipated that Lee's administration will be more pro-China than previous administrations. While Yoon emphasised the importance of US alignment and adopted a tough stance on China, Lee is expected to seek more of a balanced relationship. One major motivating factor behind the anticipated change in approach is the growing doubts surrounding the Trump administration’s commitment to South Korean security. Unlike his predecessors, Trump “does not feel a moral and strategic obligation towards Korea", repeatedly threatening to withdraw US troops stationed in South Korea should Seoul refuse to pay more. With Trump’s attempts at using Seoul’s strategic vulnerability as leverage to extort concessions being a consistent theme across both of his terms in office, there is little reason to expect a departure from this pattern. In May 2025, reports emerged indicating that Washington was considering pulling 4,500 troops from South Korea and redeploying them elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific, such as Guam. Regardless of whether the withdrawal threat is serious or strategic posturing, the Trump administration is proving itself to be a less dependable ally. With third-party countries set to play an important role in the escalating US-China rivalry, Washington is playing a dangerous game by straining relations with long-term partners. 

Lee’s ascendancy to power could have several potential policy implications for the US-China rivalry. One particularly important area concerns a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which Lee has previously said would have nothing to do with South Korea. Fears are also growing that Lee may be more likely to turn a blind eye to Beijing’s other foreign policy aggressions and human rights abuses. For instance, while Lee mounted a 24-day hunger strike to protest Japan’s discharge of Fukushima wastewater into the Pacific Ocean, he remained silent on China’s disposal of far more nuclear-contaminated water into South Korea’s West Sea. This occurred despite the International Atomic Energy Agency's approval of the disposal of the Fukushima water. Lee’s anticipated pragmatic diplomacy may come to be seen as a pro-China foreign policy in disguise in the fullness of time.

Japan: Some Wounds Never Heal

Lee and other Democratic Party leaders are less enthusiastic about strengthening relations with Japan compared with the Yoon administration, which “took unilateral steps to improve relations”. Lee has previously accused Japan of failing to come clean on the brutalities it inflicted during its colonial rule. Lee’s outlook on Japan, which he previously described as an "enemy country", raises concerns about the future of the US-South Korea-Japan trilateral partnership. Lee did tone down his rhetoric concerning Japan during the election campaign, going as far as to state that Tokyo was an "important cooperation partner”. However, with avoiding controversial foreign policy statements on the campaign trail being a strategic necessity, Lee will be judged by his actions rather than his words.

North Korea’s Evolving Challenge

While the ongoing confrontation between South Korea and North Korea has never been straightforward, things have become more complicated in recent years. A key reason for this is North Korea’s expanding military capabilities. With Pyongyang advancing its nuclear weapons programme, the country’s nuclear warfighting capability is becoming increasingly formidable. With North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un equating the programme to being “a guarantor of regime security and national pride”, there is little chance of the threat across the border disappearing. To make matters even more complex for Seoul, Pyongyang has also deepened ties with Moscow, sending both troops and equipment to assist Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. The growing partnership introduces the worrying prospect of North Korea receiving support from both Beijing and Moscow if war were to break out again with South Korea. With North Korea strengthening its military capabilities and reducing its international isolation on its terms, Lee has inherited a difficult situation.

Although Seoul has largely done a commendable job of managing the difficult situation, there are clashing schools of thought on how to deal with North Korea. Different administrations have adopted varying approaches to North Korea. For instance, while the Yoon administration firmly rejected engagement with Pyongyang, the previous President Moon Jae-in adopted a far more progressive strategy. With liberals tending to be more interested in reconciliation with Pyongyang than conservatives, Lee is expected to promote dialogue with North Korea, while also being more pragmatic than Moon. While Moon emphasised peace and inter-Korean reconciliation, Lee advocates conditional dialogue with Pyongyang. Although Lee’s approach could reduce tensions on the Korean Peninsula in the short term, there are concerns that Pyongyang could exploit weakened deterrence.