Madagascar: Elite Military Unit Seizes Power After Siding With “Gen Z” Protesters

Key Takeaways:

• Youth-led protests in Madagascar, initially sparked by chronic water and electricity shortages, culminated in a military seizure of power and President Rajoelina’s fleeing the country.

• The ensuing political crisis highlights deep structural and systematic challenges, including high poverty rates and inequality.

• A resolution to the crisis is dependent on whether the military leadership can successfully manage the transition timeline, effectively address the main socioeconomic grievances of the protesters, and eventually restore constitutional order.

• Madagascar’s situation adds to a growing list of African nations experiencing military takeovers, highlighting a trend of youth-led movements leveraging social media to demand better governance.

  
  

From Street Protests to Military Takeover

What began as youth-led protests in Antananarivo on 24 September 2025 over severe water and electricity shortages escalated into mass violent anti-government protests and the dismissal of Prime Minister Christian Ntsay and cabinet. This failed to appease the protesters, who continued to demand President Andry Rajoelina’s resignation. The situation escalated on 11 October 2025, when the Elements of the Corps d’Administration et Technique de la Sécurité Publique (CAPSAT), an elite military unit instrumental in Rajoelina’s seizure of power in 2009, refused orders to disperse demonstrators and openly escorted protesters in the capital. CAPSAT appointed General Demosthene Pikulas, the former head of the military academy, as army chief. General Nonos Mbina Mamelison was named the new Commander of the Gendarme Forces, marking a significant change at the top of the military hierarchy. Fears of Rajoelina’s removal and an alleged assassination plot prompted him to dissolve the National Assembly and flee the country, reportedly aboard a French military aircraft, to an unknown location. The dissolution came as lawmakers were planning to initiate impeachment proceedings against him. Despite this, the vote continued, and lawmakers voted overwhelmingly against Rajoelina, and the military declared a takeover. The country’s High Constitutional Court said it had invited Colonel Michael Randrianirina to serve as Madagascar’s new president.

Madagascar’s Fragile Political History and Global Trends

Madagascar has a history of political instability since it gained independence in 1960, with the 2009 coup being the most recent turning point in the country’s history. Rajoelina first came to power in a military-backed coup that ousted President Marc Ravalomanana in 2009, with CAPSAT playing a crucial role. He subsequently won elections in 2018 and 2023, both of which were contested and boycotted by the opposition over allegations of irregularities. Madagascar adds to a growing list of countries that have been hit by a series of military takeovers. Most African governments with youthful populations that fear this could be replicated in their countries will likely monitor the situation closely, particularly as more youth are taking a stand globally to demand better governance. The Malagasy protests were most likely inspired by youth-led movements in Nepal, Indonesia, and Kenya, which leveraged social media platforms to organise the protests and coordinate mass actions.

Implications for Stability, Travel and Business Operations

A resolution to the crisis is dependent on whether the military leadership can successfully manage the transition timeline, effectively address the main socioeconomic grievances of the protesters, and eventually restore constitutional order. Presently, the protests in Madagascar appear to have died down; however, the situation remains fluid. Operational disruptions are likely to continue in the near term. Air travel to and from the island nation continues to be restricted as some international flights, including Emirates and KLM, have suspended operations due to security concerns.

The nature of these protests, which stem from deep-seated grievances mainly driven by corruption, high unemployment rates and poverty rates, particularly among youthful populations, presents an extra layer of unpredictability for businesses operating in the affected regions. Youth-led mobilisations are expected to remain a key feature in the political sphere of many countries across the globe. Hence, protests can quickly erupt, disrupting transport, communications and supply chains.

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