Western Europe

Key Takeaways Violence-as-a-Service is transforming organised crime, allowing criminal groups to outsource violent acts through online recruitment and encrypted communications. Young people are increasingly being targeted and exploited via social media and messaging platforms to carry out serious offences on behalf of organised crime networks. The threat is driving greater international cooperation, with the UK participating in Europol’s Operational Taskforce GRIMM to disrupt

Crime is falling. So why do so many people feel less safe? It’s a paradox that sits at the heart of the UK’s current security landscape. Understanding the threat landscape isn’t just about analysing crime data - it’s about understanding how people experience and interpret risk.

The G7 remains a relevant, minilateral forum capable of defending the liberal international order and its values at a time when it is under threat. It serves as an alternative to larger, often gridlocked global institutions, providing an informal structure for diplomacy. To protect G7 unity and avoid direct confrontation with the Trump administration, France has compromised on its agenda by omitting climate change.

nternal conflict in the UK has, in recent years, been heavily influenced by international conflict across the globe. The rise in hate crime incidents cannot be ignored, with increases in antisemitism and Islamophobia often closely linked to periods of international warfare and heightened geopolitical tensions.

The expansion of AI introduces significant risks around privacy, bias, and intrusive surveillance practices. Growing reliance on private technology firms raises concerns over data governance and accountability. Increased use of AI may challenge public trust, which is central to the UK’s policing-by-consent model. Balancing operational effectiveness with ethical oversight will be critical to the future of AI in policing.

Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party secured a supermajority, ending Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule and providing a mandate to overhaul the constitution. Orbán's 2024 decline was driven by a child-abuse pardon scandal that damaged his party’s image, coupled with sustained economic stagnation and ineffective campaign strategies.

Geopolitical energy shocks can translate into nationwide unrest and infrastructure disruption within days, not weeks. Protest tactics and grievances are spreading across Europe, increasing the risk of cross-border contagion. Energy security is now a public order and national resilience issue, not just an economic concern.

The escalation following the start of US‑Israeli coordinated strikes on Iran since 28 February 2026, has intensified geopolitical uncertainty across the Middle East, with clear reverberations in the United Kingdom through heightened protest activity and counter‑terrorism (CT) considerations.

NATO has made significant progress in strengthening deterrence since 2022 but European reliance on the United States for key military capabilities remains a structural vulnerability. Closer coordination between Russia and China is creating a more complex global security landscape, stretching NATO’s ability to respond in multiple regions. To maintain readiness, Europe must invest in transport networks, forward deployments, and joint defence production.

Organised crime has evolved into a geopolitical threat, shaping sanctions evasion, cyber activity, and hybrid conflict dynamics. Law enforcement remains essential but is limited by jurisdictional, legal, and political constraints that criminal networks exploit. Intelligence-led, multi-agency approaches are needed to identify and disrupt risks before they become prosecutable offences.

The Munich Security Conference (MSC) 2026 on 13-15 February 2026 matters less as a problem-solving forum and more as a signal of how global elites are adapting to sustained instability. The dominant threat landscape is defined by grey-zone conflict, hybrid warfare, economic coercion, and AI-enabled disruption rather than conventional war alone. The conference signals the next 12 months will be shaped by hedging, deterrence, and resilience planning rather than confidence in

On 07 January 2026, rail infrastructure was targeted by saboteurs, causing significant disruption to train services on the opening day of the Winter Olympic Games. Three distinct incidents were reported in Bologna, and another in Pesaro. Electrical cables used to detect train speeds were found severed in Bologna, while a rudimentary improvised explosive device (IED) was discovered by a track at a nearby location. Additionally, a cabin housing a track switch was set on fire ne

Violence against women and girls in the UK represents a widespread structural problem rooted in gender inequality and power imbalances. Affecting millions of women each year, its scale and persistence justify its recognition as a national emergency rather than a collection of individual crimes.

WEF 2026 in Davos is due see a heightened security presence to counter protests and mitigate against chances of lone-actor and small-cell attack trends, with explicit concern for low-tech attacks, drones and cyber threats.

The January 2026 US military intervention in Venezuela has rasiedconcerns over Trump’s ambition to take over Greenland were renewed. The Trump administration reportedly does not exclude using military or economic force to take over Greenland, leading many European leaders to signal the end of NATO if the US were to intervene in the nation. The critical minerals found in Greenland are significant to US and private company interests in terms of defence and green technologies.

The Fitburg ship was seized by Finnish authorities on 31 December 2025, after dragging its anchor on the seafloor, damaging an undersea telecoms cable. The incident is the first to take place a year after extensive securitising measures were taken by NATO, the EU, and coastal states to protect the Baltic undersea installations. Baltic maritime affairs impact various business practices, including shipping, communications, and energy, and all could be affected by changes to th

Electricity demand from AI data centres in the West is projected to increase 31-fold by 2035, potentially absorbing up to 20–25% of total annual electricity generation in the United States. Structural increases in electricity prices have already driven U.S. power costs up by around 50% since 2021, undermining competitiveness and the viability of new data-centre investments. The construction timelines for new power plants—up to ten years for combined-cycle facilities—are misal

The UK is unlikely to face direct war with Russia in 2026, but will remain under sustained pressure below the threshold of armed conflict. · Russian activity against the UK and NATO is most likely to manifest through hybrid threats such as cyber attacks, sabotage, espionage and disinformation. · Escalation risks are more likely to arise from incidents or miscalculation than from deliberate invasion or overt military action.

Organised crime is highly complex and transnational: UK criminal networks range from small, local groups to large international organisations, exploiting vulnerabilities abroad and leveraging technology to commit fraud, cybercrime, and money laundering. Financial systems are a major target: Criminals use cash-intensive businesses and complex financial arrangements to launder illicit funds, making London and the UK’s open economy attractive for organised crime.

Digital forensics is essential for modern investigations, but its expanding reach creates significant privacy and ethical challenges. UK legislation seeks to balance investigative needs with civil liberties, yet rapid technological change continues to test these frameworks. Operational pressures – like evidence backlogs, encryption barriers, and skills shortages – complicate the responsible use of digital evidence.