Western Europe

The month of November marked a significant shift in Western European states’ defensive strategies. The UK encountered several Russian threats (a spy ship in British waters, cyberattacks, and satellite spying), while Germany and France increased their defence budgets and introduced voluntary conscription plans. The private sector is heavily implicated in European defence projects, especially as Russian threats manifest in hybrid forms; skills include AI, cyberspace, ammunition

Online extremism is rising across multiple ideologies, driven by social grievances, digital echo chambers, and global conflicts. Early online behaviours – including fixation, extremist memes, hate rhetoric, and network engagement – often precede real-world criminal or terror activity. OSINT tools and analytics can detect precursor signals at scale, enabling proactive policing and threat mitigation. Youths are increasingly vulnerable to radicalisation, making education and ear

On 20 November 2025, Spanish Republicans are flooding social media outlets with #ElBorbónEsFranquista focusing on King Felipe VI who inherited the throne from his father, accused of holding the Spanish crown thanks to Francisco Franco. The Republican activism in Spain is nowhere as active or considered as pressing as issues such as corruption or ongoing international conflicts. However, these demonstrations are still reported in Spain and intertwined with current affairs.

Crime-as-a-Service (CaaS) has transformed cybercrime into a commercial ecosystem, lowering the barrier for anyone to commit complex attacks. Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) remains the most profitable and damaging CaaS model, driving record global and UK cybercrime losses. CaaS markets thrive on anonymity, cryptocurrency, and specialisation, mirroring legitimate tech-industry dynamics. UK law enforcement and policymakers are responding with proposed bans on ransom payments and

UK prisons are facing a growing drone threat, as criminal networks increasingly use unmanned aerial vehicles to smuggle drugs, weapons, and contraband into secure facilities. Drone-facilitated smuggling fuels organised crime, disrupts daily prison life, and hinders rehabilitation by maintaining a pervasive drug culture. Counter-drone technology is evolving, with systems such as Sky Fence and advanced detection methods, but current measures remain inconsistent across pri

China and Russia have signed an agreement to jointly commercialise and develop the Northern Sea Route, focusing on technological exchange and infrastructure development. ●      As a strategically located maritime route containing vast resources, countries are expressing a growing appetite for investment. ●      Tourism, shipping, mining, development, and various other industries interested in expanding into the Arctic need to account for the significant insurance costs, unp

According to the latest UK Home Office crime statistics, data for the year ending March 2024 demonstrates a 25% increase in the number of religious hate crimes compared to the previous year. Spikes in hate crime can be partially attributed to the Israel-Hamas conflict, which began in October 2023. National Hate Crime Awareness week will take place from 11 to 18 October 2025. The UK government has implemented the Hate Crime Strategy 2025-2028 to reduce the impact of h

State-sponsored sabotage is assessed as the most likely explanation for the incursions, which have been described by Danish government officials as a "hybrid attack" and "systematic operation." The tactics, locations, and timing of the incursions suggest deliberate efforts to test the responses of NATO air defences and undermine political unity ahead of the European Political Community meeting, which is due to take place in Copenhagen on 02 October 2025.

Supporters see the digital ID as a practical tool to curb illegal working, reduce fraud, and streamline access to public and private services, drawing on international examples such as Estonia and Denmark. Critics, including civil liberties groups, warn of risks to privacy, potential “mission creep,” and the emergence of a surveillance culture, with more than 2.4 million people signing petitions against the policy. Political and public reaction has been deeply divided, with p

The event highlights the growing visibility and scale of far-right mobilisation in the UK, linking domestic movements with international networks, and demonstrates the operational challenges for authorities in managing large-scale demonstrations. Online amplification of attendance claims and messaging suggests continued efforts to build momentum for future rallies, while counter-protests remain a focal point of opposition.

On 13 September 2025, central London will host two large, opposing demonstrations: Tommy Robinson’s “Free Speech Festival” and a counter-protest led by Stand Up To Racism (SUTR) and allied anti-fascist groups. Based on previous demonstrations organised and promoted by Tommy Robinson, attendance is likely to be in high tens of thousands. Organisers are claiming it could attract at least 150,000 'patriots' but quoting interest from at least 500,000 people and mark the biggest r

Far-right mobilisation may intensify in the coming weeks, particularly around asylum hotels and key symbolic dates, with a heightened risk of escalation and social unrest at some confirmed anti-immigration protests that could attract participants with disruptive or extremist affiliations. The spread of misinformation appears to be an increasingly influential driver of protest activity, with unverified claims alone capable of triggering rapid mobilisation and significant po

The UK retail sector is facing an unprecedented wave of sophisticated cyberattacks in 2025, with major brands like Marks & Spencer, Co-op, and Harrods suffering crippling blows to their operations, finances, and reputations. Over just a few weeks this spring, attackers managed to halt online orders, disrupt payment systems, and expose sensitive customer data, underscoring the sector’s acute vulnerability in an era of digital transformation.

The threat of terrorism remains relevant across the UK, with the UK Government outlining a terrorism threat level of “substantial”, meaning that “an attack is likely”. The threat in London is particularly significant. There are considerations and precautions that individuals can take to protect themselves. The public is advised to remain aware of unattended bags, especially if they display signs of potential danger such as exposed wires, batteries, adhesive tape, liquids, or

With growing political will, multiple countries are recognising and developing solutions to the challenges posed by grey zone warfare. However, the matter will require ongoing multilateral cooperation and investment. This will be made harder by actors who continue to refine new methods and technologies to undermine and neutralise countermeasures.

Though a successful counterterrorism operation, the recent arrests of five Iranian nationals underscore the persistent threat of state-sponsored terrorism across the UK. Geopolitically motivated state-sponsored terrorism is a growing challenge across the West, demanding robust international cooperation to meet shared counter-terrorism objectives. As global tensions intensify, state-sponsored terrorism is likely to remain a persistent and complex challenge.

On 24 April 90,000 people filed past the Pontiff's body following an 8 hour wait for access to pay respects to him. Factors including strong media attention, the religious element, and large crowds increase the appeal of the event as a target for Islamist terror groups. Travel disruptions are highly likely and visitors should expect closures, restrictions, and huge crowds. The Pope will continue to lie in state until the evening of 25 April 2025 and at around 1900hr

Clashes between rival gangs have been reported from Edinburgh and Glasgow over drug territories with violence levels that are rapidly escalating. Methods used between the rivals have been firebombs, firearms, weapons. The past six weeks have seen over a dozen brutal attacks take place with private properties and children caught in the crossfire of the organised crime that the Police Federation admitted there are not enough officers to deal with.

The “Revolutionary Class Struggle", a newly emerged extremist group, claimed responsibility for the incident. The group made their claim via a post on the "Athens Indymedia" website and also took credit for a similar incident involving explosives at the Labour Ministry building in Athens in February 2024.

The proposed amendments would give police the ability to impose conditions on protests, including altering protest routes and timings to prevent disruption to those attending places of worship. This comes in the wake of violent incidents during the summer of 2024, when religious venues including mosques and synagogues were targeted by protests, making it risky or impossible for worshippers to practice their faith peacefully.