System Failures: Understanding The Rise in Wrongful Prisoner Release in The UK

Source: Institute for Government

Key Takeaways

• Wrongful releases have risen sharply in the UK, driven by a combination of overcrowded prisons, staff shortages and outdated administrative practices that together weaken the accuracy of sentence management.

• Structural pressures across prisons in the UK, including the growing number of people held on remand, high turnover in busy establishments and the continued use of paper-based processes, create conditions in which administrative mistakes are likely.

• The government’s proposed reforms show an acknowledgement of these systemic problems, but long-term stability will depend on sustained investment in modern technology, stronger coordination between courts and prisons and meaningful expansion of capacity to reduce pressure across the system.

The Scale of the Problem: How Often Are Prisoners Wrongfully Released?

The prison system has been described to be at ‘breaking point’, with understaffing, low staff morale, overcrowding and out-dated paper-based systems. Wrongful releases are now at an all-time high. In the past 12 months, the accidental release of prisoners before completing their sentence has increased by 128%, from 115 to 262 incidents. Justice Secretary David Lammy admits ‘the system close to breaking point’, attributing some of the problems to an overly complex sentencing framework. More broadly, there seems to be a discrepancy between the current image portrayed by Lammy of a prison system intending to implement ‘the toughest checks we have ever had’ and the continuous accidental releases occurring, 91 between April and October 2025. While they are rare, they have been rising year-on-year from an average of nine per month in 2023 to 17 per month in 2025.

With male prisons at 99% capacity, overcrowding has become a major factor in the administrative errors. The prison population has doubled over the past three decades despite a fall in overall crime rates. Severe overcrowding limits officers’ ability to manage caseloads effectively and to track and locate inmates - issues that now pose significant operational challenges across the UK prisons.

Of the 262 releases in error from prison in the year to March 2025, 87 were of offenders whose primary offence was violence against a person, and three whose main offence was a sexual offence. The nature of the offence creates great safety concerns for the wider community. With many of the released offenders found in city centres, or in some cases – central London. The system has been strained to record levels with projections suggesting that prisons could reach full capacity again by early 2026. These high-profile wrongful releases, and the public and political responses surrounding them, may ultimately become a catalyst for long-term systemic reform aimed at preventing such failures in the future.

Behind the Mistakes: Why Are Wrongful Releases Becoming More Common?

Prisons are currently under immense pressure due to the growing problem of overcrowding. Many establishments now accommodate two or even three individuals in cells originally designed for a single occupant, creating conditions that heighten tension and undermine institutional stability. When combined with the shortage of prison officers, the system becomes highly susceptible to operational failures. Reduced staffing limits the capacity for consistent oversight and increases the probability that essential procedural checks will be missed, all of which can contribute directly to wrongful releases.

A continued deficit in staffing levels has also contributed to a marked decline in overall staff morale. Over the past year, approximately 13% of the prison workforce has left the service, reflecting the scale of dissatisfaction and strain within the profession. Those who remain are routinely required to manage growing populations alongside increasingly complex prisoner needs, often without adequate support. Under such conditions, the likelihood of administrative error expands significantly, as overstretched personnel struggle to meet rising operational demands.

Recent ministerial commentary has also highlighted the extent to which outdated administrative practices contribute to these systemic failures. In a public statement, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy emphasised that addressing wrongful releases must begin with a review of the antiquated paper-based processes still relied upon across prisons. She noted that every prisoner’s release date continues to be calculated manually, drawing on more than 500 pages of sentencing guidance and often requiring staff to work through complex legislative criteria by hand. This reliance on manual calculation has persisted despite the introduction of a digital system intended to support sentence management, which has since been described as unreliable and prone to malfunction. The government has therefore indicated that reform will involve not only modernising record keeping and establishing more rigorous release checks but also expanding prison capacity through the construction of new facilities.

Workforce pressures are unfolding at a time when financial constraints continue to intensify. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Ministry of Justice’s day to day expenditure remains nearly 6% lower than in 2010, despite substantial growth in the prison population and greater complexity in institutional responsibilities. Consequently, prisons are expected to deliver expanded functions with diminished resources, a dynamic that has contributed to systemic deterioration. The broader implications of this environment are reflected in patterns of institutional safety. Recent safety in custody statistics indicate an 8% rise in assaults in the year leading up to June 2025. Such increases in violence compromise the potential for effective rehabilitation, impede consistent decision making, and reinforce an already elevated reoffending rate of 80%. Under these conditions, the rehabilitative mission of the prison system becomes increasingly difficult to achieve.

Collectively, these pressures overcrowding, depleted staffing, reduced funding, and rising levels of violence create circumstances in which administrative errors, including wrongful releases, become more likely. These incidents should not be viewed as isolated mistakes but rather as indicators of a system experiencing sustained structural stress.

The Early Release Scheme: The Impact

Both Labour and the former Conservative Government turned to early release schemes as urgent mechanisms to prevent the prison system from reaching capacity crisis. While these measures alleviated immediate pressures, they simultaneously introduced new operational challenges. Large scale releases increased the administrative workload for staff who were already managing complex sentence calculations, and this heightened the risk of inaccuracies during a period of intensified activity. In several instances, individuals were released in error because their offences were recorded under outdated or repealed legislation, revealing the extent to which legacy data practices continue to undermine accuracy within the system.

The reliance on early release schemes also interacted with broader pressures created by the expanding remand population. Frequent transfers between courts and institutions introduced additional opportunities for paperwork discrepancies, misplaced documentation, and scheduling conflicts. These movements created a system in which staff were often required to make rapid decisions on incomplete or inconsistent information, further increasing the likelihood of administrative oversight.

Conditions within certain high-volume prisons illustrate the cumulative effect of these pressures. Facilities already experiencing severe strain saw their operational stability further weakened by the acceleration of release processes. In establishments where turnover was high and internal movement common, staff faced significant difficulty in maintaining accurate and up to date records, making the administration of early release schemes especially vulnerable to error. Taken together, these developments demonstrate that although early release schemes provided a short-term solution to capacity pressures, they also exposed the fragility of existing administrative structures. The additional demands placed on staff, combined with outdated systems and complex prisoner movement patterns, created an environment in which procedural accuracy became increasingly difficult to sustain. As a result, the impact of early release extends beyond population management, revealing deeper vulnerabilities within the organisational framework of the prison system.

When the System Slips: High-Profile Cases of Wrongful Release

• Kaddour-Cherif was mistakenly released after his arrest warrant was sent to the wrong establishment. He was freed from HMP Wandsworth on 29 October 2025, with the error being noticed when the court attempted to set up a video link for a scheduled hearing.

• Hadush Kebatu was wrongly released during the process of being transferred to a deportation centre, illustrating how administrative inconsistencies in prisoner movement can lead to significant operational failures.

• William Smith was released after a court clerk incorrectly recorded his custodial sentence as a suspended one, demonstrating how inaccuracies in digital and paper-based court records can directly result in unlawful discharge from custody.

HMP Wandsworth provides a clear illustration of the structural pressures currently affecting the prison system and an understanding of how prisoners can be incorrectly released. Operating at approximately one and a half times its intended capacity, the institution was recently placed in special measures following an inspection that described it as overcrowded and infested with vermin. Inspectors reported that staff often struggled to maintain an accurate account of prisoners’ whereabouts during the day, a difficulty closely linked to both overstretched resources and the high volume of daily movements within the establishment. More than half of the population is held on remand, resulting in frequent transfers between the prison and the courts and contributing to a particularly high level of turnover. This constant movement places considerable strain on fundamental administrative processes, including record keeping and internal coordination. The prison represents wider systemic weaknesses that increase the likelihood of administrative failures.

Fixing the Fault Lines: What Can Be Done to Prevent Wrongful Releases?

Preventing further wrongful releases requires addressing both the structural weaknesses of the prison estate and the administrative systems that support it. A central priority is the modernisation of sentence calculation and prisoner management processes, which currently rely heavily on outdated paper-based methods and fragmented digital tools. Introducing a single, reliable national system for sentence management, supported by courts and probation services, would significantly reduce the opportunity for clerical and communication errors. Strengthening staffing levels is also essential. Persistent shortages have left prison officers managing complex tasks under considerable pressure, which increases the likelihood of mistakes. Improved training, clearer operational guidance and a more stable workforce would help create the consistency needed for accurate decision making.

Better coordination between the courts and the prison service is another critical area for reform. The continued growth of the remand population, combined with frequent prisoner transfers, demands a more robust system for tracking warrants, bail decisions and release dates. Enhanced auditing procedures, routine cross checking and mandatory verification before any release could act as safeguards against administrative oversight. Finally, investment in the physical infrastructure of prisons is necessary to ensure that establishments struggling with overcrowding and poor conditions are better equipped to maintain basic organisational control. With these measures combined, they would address the most significant points of failure that currently make wrongful releases far more likely.

The Government’s Plan For Change

The government has set out a programme of reforms aimed at reducing wrongful releases and strengthening the reliability of sentence administration. A central element of this plan is the modernisation of existing processes through a six-month investment of up to £10 million. This funding will support the introduction of new technology, including artificial intelligence tools to assist with sentence calculation, and will accelerate the replacement of the current paper-based system that requires staff to navigate extensive guidance and has been linked to administrative errors.

Alongside technological improvements, the government is introducing new structures for oversight and coordination. The Deputy Prime Minister will chair a Justice Performance Board that will meet monthly to monitor key performance indicators, including the rate of mistaken releases. A dedicated team of data specialists has also been tasked with reviewing historical release errors to identify recurring patterns and inform future operational changes. Communication between courts and prisons is being strengthened through a new fast track communication system.

The future strategy also includes substantial expansion of the prison estate, with plans to create 14,000 additional places and build on the 2,500 already delivered. The government argues that increased capacity, coupled with simplified release policies and improved administrative systems, will help reduce pressure on overcrowded institutions and lower the risk of further errors. Collectively, these measures seek to address both the immediate operational problems and the broader structural weaknesses that have contributed to instability within the prison system.

Beyond the Immediate Crisis: Building a Reliable and Resilient Custodial System

The rising number of wrongful releases in recent years highlights deep structural weaknesses within the UK prison system. Chronic overcrowding, severe staffing shortages, outdated administrative processes and growing operational volatility have collectively created conditions in which procedural accuracy is increasingly difficult to sustain. High-profile cases demonstrate that failures can emerge at any point across the custodial pathway, from court documentation to internal prison record keeping.

While the government’s reform programme represents a significant step toward modernising sentence management and strengthening oversight, long-term improvement will depend on more than technological upgrades. Sustainable progress requires resolving the underlying drivers of institutional strain: insufficient capacity, unstable staffing levels, and the increasing complexity of prison operations. Without coordinated investment in infrastructure, personnel and data systems, the risk of further wrongful releases will remain high.