Central Asia

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has shattered assumptions about its strategic limits, showing that ideology and historical ambition can override logic. Moscow has sought to keep Kazakhstan as firmly within its sphere of influence as possible. Astana’s contingency planning against a potential Russian incursion has become a central pillar of its foreign policy. Kazakhstan has pursued a multivector approach, balancing ties with Russia, China, and the West.demographics, and log

The primary factor straining Russia’s international security partnerships is ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This war has both inspired crackdowns against central Asian and Caucasian communities within Russia, and caused Moscow to neglect its duties as a security provider for other nations within its alleged sphere of influence.

The formation of an anti-democratic political bloc including Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, and Georgia is assessed as likely to occur. This will likely increase polarisation within European politics and provide Russia with greater scope to stage influence and sabotage operations against European targets.