Middle East

Türkiye has expanded its strategic reach by integrating into the Mecca Defence Alliance with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. This emerging axis aims to establish collective deterrence against any act of aggression, with Article 2 stipulating that an armed attack against any one of the three countries will be considered an attack against all.

Geopolitical and security pressures are reshaping aviation's connectivity, competitiveness and commercial resilience. Restricted routes increase fuel consumption and emissions, while lost cargo capacity can push freight prices up well beyond the conflict zone. The attempted terrorist attack aboard flydubai FZ1073 highlights the importance of vetting, screening and intelligence sharing in aviation security.

The Gulf security picture has shifted noticeably over the past week. Sea lanes, energy infrastructure and air travel are all under pressure at the same time. For organisations with people, assets or supply chains in the region, this is a time to prepare, not panic.

Iran-backed militias in Iraq have opened a northern front against Saudi petroleum infrastructure. The Houthis are simultaneously threatening Saudi ports, pipelines and tankers from Yemen. The attack on the Saudi-flagged tanker Encelia showed that the campaign extends beyond land-based infrastructure into the Red Sea.

Canada is deepening ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE as Ottawa seeks greater trade and investment diversification. Mark Carney's Saudi visit produced more than C$1 billion in commercial agreements across technology, infrastructure, mining and defence. The UAE's major investment commitment has highlighted the practical challenge of matching available capital with sufficiently advanced Canadian projects.

Israel, Egypt and Cyprus are developing a functional gas corridor that links Israeli production, Egyptian LNG infrastructure and future Cypriot offshore fields. The corridor is commercially useful but politically fragile, with Gaza, Palestinian offshore gas, Cyprus’s divided status and Turkey’s maritime claims all shaping the risk environment. Companies should monitor offshore security restrictions, Egypt’s LNG utilisation, Cyprus project timelines, Turkey’s maritime posture.

Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have demonstrated how relatively low-cost drone and missile attacks can generate disproportionate economic disruption across global supply chains, shipping lines, and energy markets.

The KSA maintains strong ties with the US whilst closely monitoring Iran in the Gulf, cooperating with the UAE and Russia, and engaging with BRICS+ economies. Businesses can capitalise on the KSA’s Vision 2030 for significant long-term opportunities.

The sea has always been a space of trade, crime and power. What is changing is the density of threats and the number of actors willing to use vessels as instruments of leverage. Piracy has not disappeared, but it is no longer the whole story. Future maritime risk map will be shaped as much by states, sanctions, militias and militarised law enforcement as by pirates with weapons and ladders.

Unlike the 1991 Gulf War, this war is unfolding in a fragmented digital environment where information is abundant in volume but increasingly constrained in quality and access.

The joint US-Israel war against Iran has experienced significant strategic ambiguity, with initial goals of regime change conflicting with stated aims of neutralising nuclear and conventional capabilities. Despite Trump’s optimism, a massive diplomatic gap exists between Washington and Tehran, casting doubt on the likelihood of a deal being reached.

The escalation following the start of US‑Israeli coordinated strikes on Iran since 28 February 2026, has intensified geopolitical uncertainty across the Middle East, with clear reverberations in the United Kingdom through heightened protest activity and counter‑terrorism (CT) considerations.

Digital infrastructure is becoming a conflict target. Recent drone strikes affecting cloud facilities in the UAE and Bahrain show that hyperscale data centres may now face physical security risks during regional conflict. The Gulf functions as both an energy and digital chokepoint. Critical subsea fibre optic cables linking Europe, Asia and Africa pass through the Red Sea, Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz, placing global internet connectivity alongside major maritime trad

The latest phase of the Israel–US–Iran confrontation has moved beyond signalling into direct and measurable pressure on the global energy system. What distinguishes this episode is not only the targeting of specific assets, but the simultaneous stress imposed on production capacity, export processing hubs and maritime transit. The result is not merely a geopolitical risk premium, but a layered supply constraint with identifiable volumes at stake. Markets are no longer pricing

The regional security environment has entered a period of sustained escalation following coordinated US and Israeli strikes against Iranian leadership and military infrastructure. Iran’s response through missile and drone attacks across Israel and multiple Gulf states demonstrates a strategy aimed less at direct battlefield advantage and more at expanding the geographic scope of the conflict.

On 28 December 2025, following the collapse of the rial to 1.42 million per USD, protesters took to the streets in Tehran's Grand Bazaar, actions which quickly spread across the country and have reached 111 cities across all 31 provinces as of 08 January 2026. Security forces (IRGC, Basij, LEF) have used force, including live ammunition and hospital raids; protest activity has been geographically diffuse, extending to peripheral regions and stretching the capacity of secur

Israel’s airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburb of Haret Hreik on 23 November 2025 eliminated Haytham Ali Tabatabai, Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff and its effective second-in-command. The IDF carried out the strike deep inside Dahieh, one of Hezbollah’s most secure strongholds, killing Tabatabai and four aides. Israeli officials described the operation as a precise, opportunistic action aimed at disrupting Hezbollah’s military rebuilding after the 2023–24 conflict.

Palestinian nationalists, Islamist fundamentalists, and other anti-Israeli extremist groups may seek to target synagogues, Israeli settlements (particularly in Golan Heights), diaspora communities, and Israeli-linked shipping operators in the Red Sea using violent tactics for ideological and political reasons. Significant security measures are likely to be implemented within Israel during this period, posing potential disruptions to business operations and transportation

On 09 September 2025, Israel conducted an unprecedented missile strike against Hamas negotiators in Doha, Qatar, killing five junior Hamas officials and a Qatari security officer. The strike marks a major escalation of security tensions in the Gulf region, and suggests that Israel is broadening its definition of national security threats to justify targeting enemies on foreign soil.

Arguably, the key to understanding Türkiye’s rise can be found in its internal politics, where two major developments have reshaped the nation’s power structures in recent weeks. Firstly, the disbanding of the PKK, announced by leader Abdullah Ocalan in mid-May 2025, will significantly reduce security tensions in Türkiye’s southern and eastern regions, allowing for an expansion of the central government’s presence in these previously unstable areas.