Middle East

Arguably, the key to understanding Türkiye’s rise can be found in its internal politics, where two major developments have reshaped the nation’s power structures in recent weeks. Firstly, the disbanding of the PKK, announced by leader Abdullah Ocalan in mid-May 2025, will significantly reduce security tensions in Türkiye’s southern and eastern regions, allowing for an expansion of the central government’s presence in these previously unstable areas.

Türkiye remains particularly alert to the threat of both intercommunal violence and Israeli military expansion. Ankara’s backing of President al-Sharaa is assessed to have played a significant role in the leader’s ascent to power, and continues to remain a critical factor in ensuring the regime’s present survival.

With growing political will, multiple countries are recognising and developing solutions to the challenges posed by grey zone warfare. However, the matter will require ongoing multilateral cooperation and investment. This will be made harder by actors who continue to refine new methods and technologies to undermine and neutralise countermeasures.

US President Donald Trump subsequently imposed a 2-week ultimatum for the agreement of a deal with Iran, prompting European leaders to hold an emergency summit with Iranian counterparts in Geneva, Switzerland. Whilst President Trump’s stated desire to make a deal may provide limited scope for a diplomatic resolution, continued strikes are assessed as highly likely to take place over the next 24-48 hours, posing continued disruptions to air travel, maritime logistics, and reg

Whilst Israeli strikes against Iranian targets are highly likely to continue over the 24-48 hours, their long-term impact remains uncertain. Operation Rising Lion was likely conducted to comprehensively eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities: an aim American policymakers would likely have rather achieved through diplomatic efforts. The operation’s scale marks a notable escalation from previous clashes, elevating the likelihood of an all-out war erupting between Israel and Ira

Renewed peacebuilding efforts by the Trump administration are deemed as unlikely to increase regional stability in their targeted areas. ·         President Trump remains highly motivated by the desire to be perceived as a “dealmaker” by his domestic supporter base, and to secure concessions for his family’s business operations.

An energy cooperation agreement between Syria and Türkiye presents new opportunities for energy supply chain diversification within the Middle East. The reopening of the Kirkuk–Baniyas oil pipeline and construction of a 400-kilovolt transmission line will likely foster closer energy and political cooperation between Türkiye and Syria. Türkiye is likely to perceive the dissolution of the PKK as an opportunity to expand energy and security activity within the Türkiye-Syria bord

The threat of attacks follows the end of the first 42-day phase of a Gaza ceasefire mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States (U.S.), which expired on 01 March 2025. ●       Under the first phase of the three-phase ceasefire deal, which came into effect in January 2025, Hamas exchanged 33 Israeli hostages and five Thais for some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.