The Death of Diplomacy - Israel Strikes Hamas Negotiators in Qatar

Key Takeaways:

• On 09 September 2025, Israel conducted an unprecedented missile strike against Hamas negotiators in Doha, Qatar, killing five junior Hamas officials and a Qatari security officer.

  
  

• The strike marks a major escalation of security tensions in the Gulf region, and suggests that Israel is broadening its definition of national security threats to justify targeting enemies on foreign soil.

  
  

• China and Russia are likely to exploit this incident to advance their strategic aims, with Beijing positioning itself as a more neutral Gulf security guarantor and Russia using this precedent to justify eliminating dissidents abroad.

  
  

• The attack threatens Israel-Gulf normalisation efforts, with Qatar hosting an emergency Arab-Islamic summit (September 14-15) to discuss potential responses.

  
  

• President Trump’s heated phone call with Prime Minister Netanyahu highlights the growing diplomatic strain between Israel and the United States, which has been exacerbated by Israel’s increasing desire to engage unilaterally in provocative military campaigns against its neighbours.

Israel Strikes Qatar: Context and Fallout

During the afternoon hours (local) of 09 September 2025, an Israeli missile strike was conducted against Hamas negotiators in the Leqtaifiya district of Doha, marking an unprecedented escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Israeli media reported that the strike was carried out using 15 Israeli fighter jets, which fired 10 munitions against a single target. According to the Qatari interior ministry, the strike killed five junior Hamas officials alongside a Qatari security officer, but failed to eliminate the group’s senior leadership. Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ chief negotiator, is currently believed to have survived the strike despite having not made a public appearance.

The strike generated immediate condemnation from world leaders, who described the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and Qatari sovereignty. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani described the attack as an “act of state terror”, and warned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “killed any hope” for the remaining hostages in Gaza by deliberately derailing attempts to agree a peace process via diplomatic channels. United Nations Secretary-General Antonia Guterres has issued a formal statement condemning the strike, supplementing criticisms made by the leaders of nations including United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, France, Spain, and Japan.

Israel, meanwhile, has remained bullish in its response, arguing that the strike was “fully justified” due to the involvement of the targets in planning the 07 October 2023 attacks. This was reinforced further by a 10 September 2025 statement delivered by President Isaac Herzog, in which the leader stated that “sometimes it's necessary to remove people who won't make a deal”. Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s ambassador to the United States, clarified the government’s position in more bellicose terms, warning that “We have put terrorists on notice, wherever they may be... we're going to pursue them, and we're going to destroy those who will destroy us.”

Emboldened Impunity: Implications for the Rules Based International Order

More broadly, the Doha strike may suggest that Israel’s security establishment intends to expand its definition of what constitutes a national security threat: a tactic employed by nations such as Russia to justify the targeting of enemies on foreign soil, both through covert and traditional means. Traditionally, Israel has limited its use of such tactics to Iran and its proxy militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria. Indeed, this was witnessed on 11 September 2025, when Israel carried out new airstrikes against targets in Yemen, confirming that its air force had struck “military camps” and had targeted “the headquarters of the Houthi military propaganda department and a fuel storage site”. Yemen’s Houthi-run health ministry estimates that approximately 35 people were killed and another 131 injured during the attacks. However, using such tactics against a US ally and mediator suggests that moving forward, any country identified as hosting “hostile actors” may be considered valid targets for military intervention, irrespective of diplomatic or economic relations.

China and Russia will undoubtedly perceive this incident as further evidence of western hypocrisy, and as an opportunity to advance their respective visions for a new global order. Beijing will likely seek to reemphasise the importance of respecting sovereignty and international law, whilst positioning itself as a more politically neutral and stable security guarantor for Gulf States than Washington, whose control over Israel appears to be waning. Russia, meanwhile, may use the precedent set by this attack to justify the elimination of ant-Kremlin dissidents in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere on national security grounds.

Shifting Sands: Implications for Regional and Global Alliances

This attack is likely to pose a severe obstacle to normalisation attempts between Israel and the Gulf States, who appear likely to distance themselves diplomatically and economically from both Israel and the United States in the short to medium term. Qatar has confirmed its intention to host an emergency Arab-Islamic summit between 14-15 September 2025 to discuss potential responses to the Doha strike, which are likely to consist of economic rather than military measures. Sanctions, embargoes, and withdrawals from partnership such as the Abraham Accords are all assessed as likely possibilities over the next several days.  Travel bans could also be imposed against Israeli or American citizens, whilst defence contractors from both countries appear likely to lose business with the Qatari, Emirati, and Saudi governments in the medium to long term as they seek to forge partnerships with less outwardly bellicose allies.

The United States, meanwhile, will likely remain wary of its waning control over Israel’s actions in the Middle East, which risk threatening Washington’s intricate patchwork of security alliances in the region. According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, US President Donald Trump held a heated phone call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following the Doha strike, suggesting that the United States was informed retroactively of the unilateral attack as opposed to being involved in its planning. President Trump reportedly told Netanyahu on 09 September 2025 that the decision to strike inside the territory of a US ally would be “unwise”. Allegedly, Prime Minister Netanyahu responded by claiming that he had only a brief window to launch the airstrike and took the opportunity. As evidenced by the fallout of the Israel-Iran conflict of June 2025, President Trump’s support of Netanyahu remains highly contingent on being perceived as the “dominant” force in the US-Israel relationship. Any instances where Israeli has acted unilaterally or against the wishes of the Trump Administration has contributed to moderate diplomatic fallout, which if repeated, could place increasing strain on relations between Tel Aviv and Washington. Indeed, should American businesses lose revenue in the Middle East as a result of the strike, Trump may use inflammatory rhetoric to condemn Netanyahu’s actions. However, given the broad similarities between the ideologies and strategic aims of Trump and Netanyahu, this relationship is assessed as likely to recover in the medium to long term.

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