Global Deep Dive – Israel – Iran Conflict Week 1 Assessment

Executive Summary:

Since 13 June 2025, Iran and Israel have engaged in direct military action against one another, resulting in mass casualty attacks in both Tel Aviv and Tehran. Iranian nuclear facilities such as Natanz and Arak have incurred extensive damage over the past week, whilst oil refineries in South Pars, Shahran, and Shahr Rey have also been targeted by Israeli missile strikes. Meanwhile, Iranian missiles struck Be’er Sheva’s Soroka hospital on 19 June 2025: a move viewed by Israeli authorities as a significant escalation. US President Donald Trump subsequently imposed a 2-week ultimatum for the agreement of a deal with Iran, prompting European leaders to hold an emergency summit with Iranian counterparts in Geneva, Switzerland. Whilst President Trump’s stated desire to make a deal may provide limited scope for a diplomatic resolution, continued strikes are assessed as highly likely to take place over the next 24-48 hours, posing continued disruptions to air travel, maritime logistics, and regional energy markets.

Situational Update:

13 June 2025

At 0400hrs (local), Israel launched “pre-emptive” strikes on Iran as part of operation Rising Lion, declaring a "special state of emergency". Dozens of strikes hit different areas of the country, targeting Tehran’s air defence systems and nuclear facilities, including Iran’s main enrichment facility in the city of Natanz, 225km south of Tehran. The attacks killed many of Iran’s top military commanders and leading nuclear scientists.

14 June 2025

The Israeli military struck an unspecified weapons facility as well as several energy sites in southern Iran, including South Pars field (the world’s largest gas field) and the Fajr Jam gas plant. Iran was subsequently forced to partly suspend production at the South Pars gas field.

15 June 2025

Israel targeted Iranian government buildings, including the Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry in Tehran and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security. On the same day, Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles, damaging Israel’s largest oil refinery near the port city of Haifa. The attack caused a partial shutdown and an increase in oil prices. The Houthis announced that they had targeted the central Israeli city of Jaffa with ballistic missiles, marking the first time an Iranian ally had intervened, with Hezbollah indicating on Friday that they did not plan to attack Israel.

16 June 2025

Israeli strikes hit the command centre for an elite Iranian military unit as well as Tehran’s state broadcaster while on the air. Footage showing the presenter fleeing circulated widely online. On the same day, Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, stated that it was likely centrifuges at Iran's underground uranium enrichment plant at Natanz had been "severely damaged if not destroyed altogether" following Israeli strikes. Additionally, it emerged that the US was expanding its response in the Middle East, deploying over two dozen tanker planes to the region, while aircraft carrier USS Nimitz left the South China Sea to head west. Massive lines of traffic were observed in Tehran following a social media post from US President Donald Trump stating: “IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

17 June 2025

Israel's military claimed that it killed Iran's wartime chief of staff Ali Shadmani just four days after he was appointed. Israel escalated its attacks on Iran’s nuclear, military, and government infrastructure.

18 June 2025

Israeli military said it attacked the Khojir missile production facility near the capital of Tehran. Iranian media reported that Israel also targeted the Imam Hossein University linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. When questioned about whether the US would support Israel with military strikes, US President Donald Trump told reporters: “I may do it, I may not do it… nobody knows what I’m going to do”. An unspecified US official stated that US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff had been in contact with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Aragchi, receiving some indication that Iran was interested in resuming negotiations. Two Iranian government planes landed in Oman, which has been mediating between the US and Iran.

19 June 2025

The Soroka Medical Centre in Israel was hit by an Iranian missile. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz threatened Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, asserting that he “can no longer be allowed to exist”. The White House confirmed that Trump would decide on whether to order US warplanes to strike Iranian nuclear facilities within the next two weeks. Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi stated that the Houthis would continue to attack Israel. Abdulmalik called on Arab countries, including Iraq, to prevent Israel from using their airspace to strike Iran.

20 June 2025

The UK, France, and Germany held talks with Iran in Geneva in a push to prevent further escalation of its conflict with Israel.

Iran - Nationwide Strike Map – SEVERE RATING

Verified strikes since 14 June 2025 

Tehran Strike Map – SEVERE RATING

Verified strikes since 14 June 2025

14 June 2025

Two Israeli projectiles struck Tehran’s Mehrabad International Airport, which hosts an air force base with fighter jets and transport aircraft and is located near to key Iranian government buildings. Meanwhile, the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran reported that “there has been limited damage to some areas at the Fordow uranium enrichment site”.

15 June 2025

Mohamed Kazemi, the intelligence chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was killed alongside two other generals by Israeli strikes. Israel targeted the Iranian defence ministry headquarters in Tehran during the early morning hours (local) of 15 June 2025. Iranian officials also reported that the Shahran oil depot, located northwest of Tehran, was struck by Israeli missiles, resulting in a significant blaze. Israel also targeted an oil refinery in the southwestern Bushehr province. Elsewhere, Israeli missile salvoes targeted a Foreign Ministry building in Tehran, a military base operated by the Defence Ministry in Isfahan, and an aerial refuelling aircraft at Mashhad Airport.

16 June 2025

The Israeli military confirmed an attack against a broadcasting studio operated by Iran’s state news channel IRINN. A loud explosion was heard while an anchor was presenting live on air, according to a live feed. The Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting organisation later reported that one of its workers was killed during the strike. Israeli strikes also damaged the Farabi Hospital, located in the central city of Kermanshah. Multiple blasts were reported in Tehran as Israel issued new evacuation orders to the capital’s residents, and attacked a military base located in the west of the city.

17 June 2025

The Israeli military reportedly struck “12 missile launch and storage sites” across Iran. Isfahan province and Tabriz city were among the areas attacked by Israel, while attacks on Tehran were “continuous and intense”, according to Iranian state media outlet IRNA. Israeli officials also claimed that one of its strikes in Tehran assassinated the Iranian army’s war chief of staff, Ali Shadmani.

18 June 2025

Israel reportedly struck 40 sites across Iran, the majority of which were targeted against weapons caches. Other strikes targeted two centrifuge production facilities, one in located Tehran and the other in Kahraj, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Elsewhere, an Israeli strike against a vehicle in Isfahan’s Najafabad area killed six people, including a pregnant woman and two children, according to local media reports.

19 June 2025

Israeli fighter jets bombed a nuclear reactor under construction in central Iran during a wave of air strikes against the country. The Israeli military reportedly targeted the Arak heavy water reactor's core seal to prevent the facility from being used for "nuclear weapons development". The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed the reactor was hit, and that it contained no nuclear material. Social media footage showed that Israeli warplanes also struck defence systems in Asadabad, Hamadan province. Meanwhile, in Tehran, Israel reportedly targeted Iran’s internal security headquarters while multiple explosions were recorded in the city of Karaj and the nearby Payam airport.

Israel - Nationwide Strike Map – SEVERE RATING

Verified strikes since 14 June 2025

Tel Aviv Strike Map – SEVERE RATING

Verified strikes since 14 June 2025

Since fighting broke out between the two, Tehran has seen some success in penetrating Israel’s Iron Dome surface-to-air missile defence system. Although the system has proven effective at repelling missiles for many years, it is not infallible. Given the scale and scope of Iran’s retaliatory strikes, which have been more sustained than past attacks in recent years, the system has become overwhelmed, leading to successful strikes on targets within Israel. Experts also believe that Iran may have used hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs), which can manoeuvre and glide at hypersonic speed, making them difficult to intercept.

Notable targets hit in Israel include the Haifa Oil Refinery and Soroka Medical Centre in Beersheba. The attack on the Haifa Oil Refinery caused a partial shutdown. According to operator Bazan, the strike, which marks the first instance of a direct Iranian attack on Israeli energy infrastructure since the latest round of hostilities began, damaged pipelines and transmission lines between facilities. Israel’s economy is not heavily dependent on domestic energy, relying on imports to meet a substantial portion of its energy needs. This suggests that the stakes of an expansion in the reciprocal attacks on energy infrastructure are greater for Iran, which is heavily reliant on exporting energy, receiving $144 billion in oil export revenues between 2021 and 2025. However, Israel is still likely to face economic repercussions from reduced domestic production capacity, albeit to a lesser extent than Iran. The Leviathan gas field, located 130km off the coast of Israel in the Mediterranean Sea, has been shut down as a precaution due to the potentially severe impact of an attack. When operational, the field plays a key role in meeting Israel’s domestic energy needs and supporting regional exports, particularly to Egypt and Jordan. Additionally, with the energy sector directly linked to water desalination, communications, financial markets, and the technology sector, any disruption will pose significant economic issues for Israel.

With civilian infrastructure being struck in Tel Aviv and Beersheba, there is a clear and ongoing threat posed to Israeli citizens by the current fighting. Millions are having to seek shelter across the country on a regular basis for their safety. Daily life has also changed for many as a result of nationwide school closures and restrictions on the number of people who can attend gatherings. Some have decided to relocate away from higher-risk urban centres to more rural areas.

Netanyahu’s political rivals and a large portion of the public have accused him of prolonging the war in Gaza to placate his far-right coalition partners, who threatened to bring down the government if he reached a deal with Hamas, to the detriment of the hostages still held by Hamas. Mass protests calling for an end to the war have become a regular occurrence across the country. However, since attacking Iran, the ruling Likud party has enjoyed a surge in polls, although the coalition still falls far short of a majority in the Knesset should elections be held now.

On 16 June 2025, the main opposition parties in the Knesset voted against a motion of no confidence in the government, despite having voted for the Knesset to dissolve itself a week earlier, just before the attacks occurred. There has been a similar shift on the international stage. For instance, despite bitter disagreement over Israel’s conduct during the war in Gaza, the UK, France, and Germany have recognised the existential threat posed by Iran’s nuclear programme. The Israeli strikes have drawn no significant rebukes from Europe, as demonstrated by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer balancing his appeal for de-escalation with an acknowledgement of the UK’s “long-standing concerns” about Israel’s nuclear programme.

Israel’s tourism sector has already been strongly impacted by the country’s ongoing military campaigns. Reports of tourists stranded in Israel as a result of Israeli airspace being closed until further notice could cause long-term damage to the industry as international travellers seek safer options. The impact is set to be particularly felt in Israel’s peripheral cities such as Tiberias, Nazareth, and Safed, where around 15% of jobs depend on tourism.

International – HIGH RATING

On 18 June 2025, open-source flight tracking software revealed that 3 Iranian aircraft, including the official presidential plane, travelled to Oman, likely in an effort to conduct emergency ceasefire negotiations with American counterparts. Whilst unverified, this development could suggest that Iran’s willingness to negotiate has not dissipated entirely, and that the significant damage exacted upon Iran’s military capabilities in recent days may force policymakers to return to negotiations.   

On 19 June 2025, American President Donald Trump pledged to make a decision on whether to involve US forces in Israel's war against Iran within the next two weeks. In a statement read out by the White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, President Trump said that there was a "substantial chance of negotiations" with Iran. However, contradictory reports have also claimed that Trump has tentatively approved plans to attack Iran, prompting speculation regarding the President’s true intentions. Allegedly, President Trump is considering an attack against Iran's underground uranium enrichment facility at Fordo, which can only be penetrated by GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs owned by the US military. Meanwhile, reports from Associated Press claim that the Al Udeid Air Base, an American military installation located outside Doha, Qatar, has seen many of its aircraft dispersed, which could indicate the opening phases of US forces being mobilised in the Gulf region. However, this is instead more likely to be a pre-emptive measure to secure Qatari airspace, with no offensive manoeuvres confirmed as of writing.

Meanwhile, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy travelled to Geneva, Switzerland on 20 June 2025 to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi alongside counterparts from France, Germany, and the European Union. French President Emmanual Macron stated that the negotiations aim to completely eliminate Iran’s capacity to perform uranium enrichment, the process that can yield both nuclear fuel and weapons grade material, and to limit Iranian missile activity and financing of terrorist organisations. However, Foreign Minister Araghchi has stated that Iran refuses to enter negotiations with the US until Israeli strikes stop, posing serious questions regarding the Geneva summit’s effectiveness. Ahead of the Geneva summit, Secretary Lammy travelled to Washington DC to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Donald Trump's Middle East special envoy Steve Witkoff.

During a phone call held on 20 June 2025, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned German Chancellor Friedrich Merz that military escalation between Israel and Iran could trigger mass migration movements and heighten the risk of nuclear contamination. President Erdoğan stated that the situation poses potential consequences for Europe as well as the Middle East, and underline Turkey’s willingness to mediate diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions.

Maersk, operator of the world’s second-largest container ship fleet, has temporarily suspended calls to the Israeli port of Haifa on 20 June 2025, citing concerns for the safety of its crew members. The decision by the Danish company marks the first announcement by a major container line since the beginning of the conflict to stop serving the key Israeli facility. As energy and port infrastructure remain highly vulnerable targets for strategic attacks, it is likely that other international shipping operators will suspend operations in the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli coast, and Bab el-Mandeb strait over the coming days due to the latent threat of strikes from Iranian and Israeli missiles.

Forecast – HIGH RATING

• Daily life for Iranian civilians has been severely impacted by operational disruptions, with cyber-attacks and power outages resulting in cuts to internet access, electricity, and fuel.

• Strikes against Israeli infrastructure, government offices, and personnel are assessed as highly likely to continue over the next 24-48 hours. Attacks against energy infrastructure has both impacted Iran’s ability to export petrochemical products, and to provide power for its citizens.

  
  

• Israeli forces have comprehensively disabled Iran’s air defences, proxy networks, and nuclear capabilities, leaving Tehran with significantly fewer military resources with which to detect and respond to incoming threats.

• Senior commanders and adviser within Iran’s security establishment remain at high risk of assassination given the Israeli intelligence service’s deep penetration of Iranian networks.

• President Trump’s political instincts to portray himself as a “dealmaker” and to avoid involving the United States in foreign conflicts may open limited space for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

  
  

• While the Geneva Summit is likely to produce a unified European position vis-à-vis the reduction of regional tensions, Iran’s high degree of distrust towards the West mean that negotiations are nevertheless unlikely to result in a short-term diplomatic resolution.

• While Iran has seen success in breaching Israel’s Iron Dome, airstrikes on the former will continue to see a higher success rate than those on the latter. With Israel firing interceptors faster than it can produce them, analysts are debating what the implications of the ratio of Israeli interceptors to Iranian long-range missiles could have on the conflict.

  
  

• The strikes on the Haifa oil refinery and Soroka Medical Centre suggest that facilities of strategic importance within Israel are at greater risk of being targeted. It is likely that Tehran will seek to hit other similar sites to maximise impact.

  
  

• There are indications that Iran’s depleted medium-range missile arsenal, strained production capacity, and Israel’s successful targeting of Iran’s stockpiles could reduce the threat posed to Israeli civilians. Reports have already emerged regarding the declining rate of missiles used in Iran’s missile attacks since the fighting first broke out. While it would be premature to reach a definitive conclusion as the exact size of Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile is unknown, the evidence suggests that Tehran could well choose to ration its missiles as the conflict persists.

• Netanyahu is likely to continue to enjoy a boost in political support for the campaign in the short term. However, this could be undermined by a flare-up in Gaza or further escalation with Iran, which are likely to deepen fears among the war-weary population of another prolonged conflict. Continued disruptions, such as school closures and the frequent need to seek shelter, could accelerate this process.