No Country for Old Peace: Israel Attacks Hezbollah Risking Lebanon Ceasefire

ISRAEL WATCH

Israel’s airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburb of Haret Hreik on 23 November 2025 eliminated Haytham Ali Tabatabai, Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff and its effective second-in-command. The IDF carried out the strike deep inside Dahieh, one of Hezbollah’s most secure strongholds, killing Tabatabai and four aides. Israeli officials described the operation as a precise, opportunistic action aimed at disrupting Hezbollah’s military rebuilding after the 2023–24 conflict.

Senior Israeli leadership publicly defended the strike. The Prime Minister stated that Israel “will act anywhere and at any time” to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament. Defence officials emphasised that the target played a key role in strengthening Hezbollah’s military capabilities, portraying the action as essential to restoring deterrence and ensuring the security of northern Israel.

“In the heart of Beirut, the IDF attacked the Hezbollah chief of staff, who had been leading the terrorist organisation’s buildup and rearmament. Israel is determined to act to achieve its objectives everywhere and at all times.” - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, The Guardian [23-24 November 2025]

Israeli messaging frames the strike not as a violation of the November 2024 ceasefire but as an enforcement measure. According to this narrative, Hezbollah’s weapons build-up constitutes a breach of the agreement, giving Israel justification for targeted operations. A military source noted the IDF identified a narrow “operational window” to strike Tabatabai and stressed that the intent was not to initiate a broader conflict.

“We will continue to act forcefully to prevent any threat to the residents of the north and the State of Israel” - Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz, APN News [23 November 2025].

Israel has also linked the operation to domestic security needs. The government aims to demonstrate decisive action following the failures of October 7. With elections approaching, the strike aligns with a political strategy that seeks project control and re-establish public confidence in national security institutions.

Israel has raised the readiness of its northern forces, reinforced air-defence systems, and increased cross-border monitoring. Civilians were encouraged to maintain normal activity, indicating Israel expects possible retaliation but wishes to avoid signalling panic or escalation.

LEBANON WATCH

Lebanese officials condemned the strike against Beirut on 23 November 2025 as a violation of sovereignty and an act that undermines the fragile ceasefire. Political sources say the timing of the attack has weakened ongoing diplomatic efforts, including President Joseph Aoun’s recent initiative to stabilise the border and open channels for future negotiations. Many in Beirut view the strike as a direct response to these political moves.

“This attack endangers regional stability and threatens to drag Lebanon into a wider conflict” - Lebanese Ministry of Information, LCBI, Reuters [23-24 November 2025]

Hezbollah confirmed the death of Tabatabai and vowed to respond, but the group is currently navigating a sensitive internal transition. It has suffered multiple leadership losses, including senior members of its jihad council, eroding organisational cohesion. Hezbollah is also under pressure to rebuild military capabilities, compensate displaced families, and restore public support after a difficult period during and after the 2023–24 war.

Deputy Secretary-General Na’im Qassem has promoted a strategy of containment, avoiding escalation with Israel to focus on reconstruction and political stability. This approach has caused frustration among some field commanders who want a stronger response to Israeli operations.

“The attack on Beirut is a dangerous development that aims to derail ongoing political efforts.” - Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, An-Nahar [24 November 2025].

Lebanon’s broader political environment is shifting. There is growing interest in strengthening state institutions and reducing dependency on external actors, particularly Iran. This trend has created new pressures on Hezbollah, whose role is increasingly contested domestically. Iran itself faces internal political and economic challenges and is unlikely to support a major confrontation with Israel currently.

The assassination of Tabatabai leaves Hezbollah with limited options. A strong retaliation risks triggering a larger conflict that could further damage Lebanon and undermine Hezbollah’s rebuilding efforts. Inaction, however, could harm its credibility and provoke internal dissent. Given these constraints, Hezbollah is likely to opt for a small-scale, symbolic response which is sufficient to show resolve but calibrated to avoid a wider war.

“Israel will face the consequences of its aggression at the time and place of our choosing.” - Hezbollah Media Office, [23 November 2025].

GOVERNING BODIES’ WATCH

The Joint Monitoring Committee responsible for overseeing the 2024 ceasefire, along with the United States and France, has remained silent following the Beirut strike. This absence of public reaction is interpreted by some Lebanese officials as tacit acceptance of Israel’s more assertive military posture.

International actors appear reluctant to challenge Israel’s justification for the operation, especially given the wider regional dynamics and continued instability following the events in Gaza. Diplomatic resources remain stretched, and there is limited appetite to confront or mediate in the Israel–Hezbollah arena at this stage, yet, the United Nations have raised their concerns recently.

“This is not an isolated incident but part of a disturbing pattern of lethal strikes in populated areas by Israel, and of total disregard for the ceasefire and for Lebanese peace efforts” - UN Special Rapporteur, Morris Tidball-Binz, United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner [21 November 2025].

Some analysts argue that this silence may reflect a broader strategic shift. The international community may be signalling that Hezbollah’s military presence in southern Lebanon is no longer sustainable and that Lebanon must consider deeper political and security arrangements. These could include reducing Hezbollah’s autonomy and strengthening the role of state security forces along the border.

STRATEGIC IMPACT OVERVIEW