Resolving Western Sahara? Boosting Maghrebian Economic and International Integration

Key Takeaways 

●       Western Sahara is a territory disputed between the Sahrawis, claiming independence under the Polisario Front, and Morocco.

●       Morocco proposed an autonomy plan in 2007 that was recently voted on and widely recognised by UN member states in 2025.

●       Increasing international backing of Morocco and the Polisario Front’s growing openness to peace discussions indicate a future of economic and political stability after decades of contentious relations.

Image depicting Moroccan sand walls in Western Sahara

The dispute over Western Sahara is rooted in a colonial past. Spain withdrew from the territory in 1975 after 92 years of control. Power over the territory was initially transferred to Morocco and Mauritania. The nomadic Sahrawis claim sovereignty over the territory, stating that they had governed it for centuries before the Spanish arrived. Since Spain’s departure, a faction of the Sahrawis formed the Polisario Front, a paramilitary resistance group calling for the territory’s independence. The group is backed by Algeria, which currently serves as the Politario Front’s base. Mauritania initially made peace with the Polisario Front, yet Morocco unilaterally took over Mauritania’s part of Western Sahara in 1979. Violent conflicts between the independence group and Moroccan forces have since erupted. This is until the Polisario Front accepted a UN peace plan for Western Sahara in 1991, along with the additional promise of a referendum for self-determination. Morocco brought its claims to the International Court of Justice, and despite partial backing, its claims to “territorial sovereignty” were not recognised. Efforts to vote on and establish the referendum were largely unsuccessful, and continued UN-sponsored talks between the warring parties in the 2010s did not assuage threats to return to hostilities. It was not until the US’s 2018 intervention, pushing progress towards peace, that the UN peacekeeping mission restarted.

2025 Developments

In November 2025, the United Kingdom joined the US, France, and Israel in recognising Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. The movement was established after the UN Security Council formally endorsed the autonomy plan for Western Sahara, a plan that would allow the Sahrawi people to vote on their own future, provided the territory remains under Moroccan sovereignty and governance. The move was celebrated as a “Unity Day” in Morocco, while the Sahrawi called it a “betrayal”, with Algeria fiercely opposing the decision. The resolution makes no plan to establish a referendum on self-determination, something long-favoured by the Polisario Front and nations that support its independence, including Algeria, Russia, and China. The Polisario Front operates in refugee camps in southwestern Algeria, and upon the announcement of the resolution, dozens of Sahrawi refugee camps in Algeria started demonstrations, claiming to fight for their right to self-determination. The Polisario Front claimed it will not join the process set forth by the resolution, as it “legitimises” Morocco’s “illegal military occupation” and peace cannot be “achieved by rewarding expansionism”.

Nevertheless, the resolution consists of the strongest endorsement for Moroccan sovereignty over the territory yet. Several European Union members and African ally countries support the decision, the most in recent history. The resolution also renews the UN peacekeeping mission’s mandate in Western Sahara for another year. This is despite reports of “low-level hostilities” between the Polisario Front and Moroccan military forces on the outskirts of the territory. Other European countries supporting Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara include Sweden. The country’s officials state the resolution poses a “credible foundation” for future discussions on settling the long-time dispute. Sweden has joined the position shared by Spain, Germany, and France, effectively recognising Moroccan sovereignty over the territory. Morocco’s autonomy initiative is today recognised by around 60% of UN member states. Additional European states supporting Morocco include the UK, which “considers Morocco’s autonomy proposal, submitted in 2007, as the ‘most credible, viable and pragmatic basis for a lasting resolution of the dispute.”

The contention around Western Sahara is central to North African diplomacy. Morocco evaluates its partnerships with other states based on their support for the autonomy plan, and to a certain extent, so does Algeria. Western Sahara serves as a benchmark for how the countries determine their allies. This often leads governments like the US to pick and choose their funding to the region, which affects operations and agencies, along with the US position and interests in the region. The US has additionally opened consulates in Western Sahara, undermining the Polisario Front’s claims. The rise in UN member states recognising Moroccan sovereignty allows for diplomatic gains. By supporting Moroccan legitimacy, they reinforce its presence and claims in the territory. It normalises Moroccan relations in the region, renders them less controversial, and, in turn, reinforces Morocco’s international standing. The autonomy plan effectively secures international acceptance of Morocco’s claims.

Diplomatic considerations for Western Sahara

The stalemate could turn into a regional crisis in the case of a failure of negotiations. Several events could lead to regional conflict. If Washington is successful in its goal to remove the UN peacekeeping mission in Western Sahara, MINURSO, Moroccan military forces may push in to capture the easter half of Western Sahara, a part still outside of its control due to Polisario fighters still present. The Polisario Front’s base, located in Algeria, may expand the conflict to include Algerian forces in case they come to support the independence movement. Applying the autonomy plan may also lead other restive regions to demand greater independence, including the Rif in northern Morocco. Morocco additionally lacks democratic safeguards and human rights legislation and is organised under an absolute monarchy. Given its hostility to Sahrawi self-determination, the security and stability of a power transition is not guaranteed. The younger Sahrawi population is also favourable to escalating hostilities with Moroccan authorities. Those living under Moroccan occupation reportedly target Moroccan police and economic assets in attacks meant to fuel independence claims. The Polisario Front has so far worked to contain the violence, emphasising progress through diplomacy, yet the rise in tensions reflects the pressure felt by the increasingly frustrated Sahrawi population.

US President Trump has begun focusing on Western Sahara as his new conquest in his plan to establish peace deals throughout the world. American officials have started focusing on the territory to resolve the conflict and broker reconciliation between Algeria and Morocco, indicating plans for long-term negotiations. Aligned with Polisario claims, Algeria claimed it is open to establishing better safeguards for the Sahrawi people if the autonomy plan comes to be. Algerian officials disclosed their desire for bilateral agreements with the US aimed at boosting investments in security cooperation and Algeria’s energy sector. Algeria has been open about wanting to de-escalate tensions through revived negotiations, even if its goals are contradictory to US interests in allowing Sahrawi self-determination. Nevertheless, these opening trilateral discussions allow for openings for development and increased joint opportunities in advancing regional peace and security. Such discussions include power-sharing plans to find a balance between blatant independence and full-fledged integration into Morocco. Although this is supported by the Polisario Front, the Sahrawis reject such engagements, claiming they would not protect their rights and interests in the long-term. Including all belligerent sides in future UN discussions is necessary to ensure the parties agree on a mutually acceptable solution to the conflict. This would also allow for progress in the Algeria-Morocco detente. However, European countries openly favouring Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara may dissuade Rabat from staying flexible in negotiations, as it will have greater international backing. Western Sahara also holds considerable natural resources. Mutually acceptable provisional arrangements on the resources and the economic interests that come with them will be additionally necessary.

Business Assessment

Peace talks between Morocco and the Polisario Front need to incorporate economic provisions. Power-sharing agreements concerning Western Sahara’s natural resources will be necessary. The 2025 UN resolution around Morocco’s 2007 autonomy proposal indicates it aims to prioritise normalising relations between Rabat and Algiers. Delineating military and economic cooperation and commitments countries have with Morocco and Algeria helps determine the solidity of future partnerships during the 2026 negotiations on the autonomy proposal. UN member states’ policy vis-à-vis Western Sahara will likely determine the incentives they developed to manage Morocco-Polisario negotiations. If countries aim to normalise relations with Morocco, recognising its sovereignty, they may additionally start pursuing opportunities in Western Sahara. Direct commercial flights to the tourism-attractive territory may resume, and so could border crossings reopen. European governments may additionally push businesses to seek mutual interest deals between both countries. The Maghreb lack economic integration with the rest of the world, due to the conflict’s effect on trade relations. However, a detente could help pave the way to regional cooperation, improving trade and infrastructure development, such as water management. Previously, trade routes were closed between Morocco and Mauritania due to the Polisario Front’s hostile activities.

Western Sahara holds significant phosphate reserves and a promising Atlantic coastline. Considerable opportunities in terms of tourism development, resource extraction, and fishing opportunities could emerge from a formal integration of the territory with Morocco. Indeed, Morocco is favourable to developing the north-west of the territory. Tax breaks and other economic incentives led to Moroccan business initiatives developing in the area, as well as developing public city and deep-water port infrastructures to welcome international flows. State subsidies are strong, aiming to keep food and energy prices low in an effort to bring Moroccans to settle in cities like Dakhla and Laayoune.

Considerations to keep in mind include Moroccan censorship and restrictions on topics discussing Western Sahara. Independent journalists working in Morocco have been deported in the past due to their separatist theses. This point is also important when discussing joint ventures between an institution located in a country that does not recognise Moroccan sovereignty and Morocco. In the event of security conflict and growing instability in the region, economic retaliatory measures are to be kept in mind. Algeria’s contentious relations with Morocco may lead it to enforce beyond-military relations, including economic sanctions on countries it deems to wrongly support Morocco against the Polisario Front. A normalisation of relations between Morocco and the Polisario Front, and by extension, Algeria, is necessary to create a stable environment attractive to investments and joint opportunities.