Poland: Trzaskowski and Nawrocki to meet in presidential election runoff

Introduction

The second and final round of Poland’s presidential election is scheduled to be held on 01 June 2025. The runoff will see a tight race between Civic Platform (PO) candidate Rafal Trzaskowski and Law and Justice (PiS)-backed Karol Nawrocki. Trzaskowski narrowly won the first round on 18 May 2025 with 31.4%, with Nawrocki gaining 29.5%. Both candidates head to the runoff, as neither won more than 50% of the vote. The winner will take over from incumbent President Andrzej Duda of the nationalist conservative Law and Justice party.

Main contenders

Opinion polls suggest the race between the two candidates will be very close. Nawrocki, 42, targets conservatives, rural areas and voters frustrated with European Union (EU) policy, while Trzaskowski, 53, appeals to urban, pro-European voters and the centre-left.

Nawrocki is head of the Institute of National Remembrance, a state body that investigates crimes dating back to the communist era and World War Two. He was relatively unknown nationally but positioned himself as a newcomer before he was picked by PiS to run. Nawrocki has been endorsed by U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who called him a "strong leader" like President Donald Trump. He was also a speaker at MAGA’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Jasionka, Poland. Nawrocki campaigned on lowering taxes and pulling Poland out of the EU’s Migration Pact and Green Deal. He also pledged to allocate 5% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Nawrocki is critical of giving more rights to LGBTQ couples.

On the other hand, Trzaskowski receives support from liberal voters, as he pledged to back abortion and LGBTQ rights. He has been the liberal mayor of Warsaw since 2018 and is an ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Trzaskowski was narrowly defeated by President Duda in the 2020 presidential election. During the campaign period, he proposed increasing defence spending to 5% of the country’s GDP and developing Poland’s arms and technology industry. He also campaigned to strengthen Poland’s position in the EU. Trzaskowski received support from Romania's President Nicușor Dan, who was a guest of honour at his “March of Patriots" on 25 May 2025.

What is at stake?

In Poland, the presidency is largely symbolic. Presidents serve as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. They can shape security policy, and they have the power to veto legislation or refer it to a constitutional tribunal.

The runoff between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will be a battle over who can attract Poles who voted for the other candidates who contested in the first round. Trzaskowski will likely attract supporters from centrist and left-wing candidates, including Deputy Senate Speaker Magdalena Biejat, Adrian Zandberg, and lawmaker Joanna Senyszyn, while Nawrocki will be hoping to attract the supporters of far-right Sławomir Mentzen, who came third with 14.8%. Although Mentzen declined to endorse either contender, he met both candidates on his YouTube channel to convince them to sign up to an eight-point policy agenda dubbed the Toruń Declaration. The eight points, which he claimed were central to his voter base, included a commitment not to raise taxes, barring Ukraine from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), protecting Polish sovereignty, and a pledge to introduce no additional gun controls. Nawrocki signed the document while Trzaskowski refused; however, he said he agreed with four of the eight items.

A victory for Nawrocki would likely result in blocks or delays in legislation through veto power, which could create tensions between the president and the government. Nawrocki is a staunch opponent of Tusk's coalition and is expected to use the veto frequently. On the other hand, a win for Trzaskowski would likely strengthen Tusk’s government significantly, reducing governance and institutional deadlocks. He promised "peaceful cooperation" with Tusk’s government.