Russian Espionage and Maritime Security Threats Across Europe

Intelligence Update:

An investigation published in early April 2025 revealed that Russian sensors were sighted in British waters, likely planted to gather intelligence on the four Vanguard submarines that carry nuclear missiles. According to the report, these sensors are considered part of Russia's "grey zone" warfare strategy, which may also involve sabotaging critical infrastructure, such as energy pipelines.

In a related development, it was reported that Russian internet users searched for terms linked to a stabbing attack in Mannheim before it occurred. During this incident, a rejected Afghan asylum seeker stabbed Michael Stürzenberger and killed a German police officer. Searches included phrases like “Michael Stürzenberger stabbed” and “Michael Stürzenberger attack.”

Additionally, Russian users attempted to access a webcam feed of Mannheim’s town square shortly before the attack. Similar findings emerged regarding fire safety protocols at the Berlin-based defence company Diehl, prior to a suspicious fire outbreak in May 2024. Searches related to the type of fire engines near the factory took place weeks before the arson attack.

Responses to concerning patterns of Russian activities across Europe:

Andrei Kelin, Russia's Ambassador to the UK, has not denied the presence of these sensors. He acknowledged that Russia is monitoring British submarines but downplayed the idea that this poses any threat to the UK. Meanwhile, The British military views the presence of these devices as a “potential threat to national security.” This comes as reports indicated that the Royal Navy's HMS Somerset tracked a Russian vessel named Boikiy near British waters in March 2024, including the spy ship Yantar, which is accused of gathering intelligence on underwater infrastructure.

The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) reaffirmed its commitment to securing critical undersea infrastructure and stated it is enhancing responses to ensure that Russian vessels cannot operate unnoticed near the UK or NATO territories. However, Former Conservative Defence and Foreign Office Minister Tobias Ellwood has warned that the UK is falling behind in monitoring Russia's deep-sea activities. Ellwood claimed that the use of sensors is "only part of the picture." He alleged that Russia has established "remote seabed platforms" off the UK coast, which act as recharging stations for mini-submarines.

Meanwhile, German officials expressed concern that these digital traces could indicate a broader Russian strategy to influence events in Germany, potentially involving attacks to support pro-Kremlin political factions and their agenda.

Assessment:

Ellwood's warning highlights the UK's weaknesses in maritime security, indicating that similar threats could arise throughout Europe. The risk of cyberattacks from Russian espionage threatens critical infrastructure in Germany and other European countries.

The attempt to access a webcam suggests that Russian users may have been aware of the attack and wanted to observe it live. While investigations did not find evidence that the Mannheim attack was orchestrated by Russia, German officials still consider it significant.

The searches related to fire protocols indicate a pattern of Russian interest in German infrastructure, suggesting a desire to understand emergency response mechanisms, although the motive remains unclear. They claimed that it was probably an attempt to disrupt supply chain of weapons meant to be delivered to Ukraine.

European sources suggest that Russia might have intentionally left clues about its research to signal to the West that it is targeting German arms companies that support Ukraine as part of its hybrid warfare strategy.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has been accused of Russia carrying out a hybrid war against the West as a response to the military support given to Kyiv. The campaign is focused on disrupting and/or destroying the weapons being sent by Germany and other Western allies to Ukrainian forces.

In March, German authorities investigated the possibility that some terror attacks by foreigners before Germany’s last election may have involved Russia. Reports indicate that Russia attempted to recruit vulnerable asylum seekers and extremists to carry out these attacks. They claimed that it was to increase support for the pro-Kremlin Alternative for Germany (AfD) party before the elections. The recruitment of vulnerable individuals for extremist activities highlights the risks faced by asylum seekers.

Forecast:

As Russia intensifies its surveillance and espionage efforts, the likelihood of heightened tensions in the region is likely. Monitoring Russian activities will likely remain a priority for the UK government. Russia might increase support for proxy groups or individuals in the UK and Europe to carry out covert operations. Ellwood’s comments demonstrate the need for the UK to take a more pro-active approach, not just to address current threats but also to prepare for future Russian activities, which could involve sabotage or cyberattacks on important infrastructure in Europe. German authorities may tighten regulations on Russian influence and increase oversight of political parties affiliated with pro-Kremlin groups.