Targeted From Afar: The Rise of State-Sponsored Terrorism in the West

Key takeaways:

• Though a successful counterterrorism operation, the recent arrests of five Iranian nationals underscore the persistent threat of state-sponsored terrorism across the UK.

• Geopolitically motivated state-sponsored terrorism is a growing challenge across the West, demanding robust international cooperation to meet shared counter-terrorism objectives. As global tensions intensify, state-sponsored terrorism is likely to remain a persistent and complex challenge.

• With future attacks inevitable, businesses, universities, and individuals must understand the shifting terrorism threat and adopt suitable mitigation strategies to protect themselves.

Recent Developments:

On Saturday 03 May 2025, five Iranian nationals were arrested for conspiring to “target a single premises” as part of a UK counter-terrorism operation. Police officers, in collaboration with military personnel, carried out searches at several addresses in Greater Manchester, London, and Swindon. UK Home Secretary Yvette Cooper confirmed the efforts were part of the “biggest counterterrorism operations in years”. The Metropolitan Police has said that it could not provide more details, citing “significant operational reasons” for the ongoing “fast-moving” investigation. However, reports have emerged claiming that the group’s intended target was Israel’s embassy in Kensington, London, W8 4QB.

Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi strongly denied that Tehran was involved in the alleged plot. In a statement posted on X, he asserted that: "Iran in no uncertain terms categorically rejects any involvement in such actions and confirms that we have not been informed of any allegations via proper diplomatic channels”. He pointed toward “third parties bent on derailing diplomacy and provoking escalation” through “false flag operations” as bearing responsibility.

Tehran and the Changing Nature of Terrorism:

The UK Government currently maintains a “substantial” national terrorism threat level, meaning that “an attack is likely”. During a recent speech to Parliament, Minister of State for Security of the UK, Dan Jarvis, addressed the shifting landscape of the terrorism threat. While the focus had previously been on Islamist terrorism and, to a lesser extent, Northern Ireland-related terrorism, state-sponsored threats are becoming increasingly problematic. Social media has also provided a new avenue through which individuals are becoming radicalised into committing terrorist attacks. According to Relief Web, the majority of Western terror attacks are now carried out by individuals without formal group affiliations who are radicalised through various social media platforms. Law enforcement agencies are being forced to respond to a wider range of forms of terrorism.

The threat posed by Iranian-sponsored terrorism to UK national security is indicative of the two countries’ strained relations. Despite Aragchi’s best efforts, many will consider Iran’s official line unconvincing. One former British military intelligence officer dismissed Iran’s denial, believing instead that the plan was likely ordered by Iran’s Supreme Leader and linked to Unit 840 of the Quds Force, a branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. His position is unsurprising given that last year, MI5 confirmed that it had responded to 20 Iran-backed plots since January 2022. The threat posed is considered so severe that there have been calls in the UK to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation.

While the terrorism threat presented by Tehran is nothing new, Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza and previous incursion into Lebanon against Hezbollah (an Iranian proxy) have further strained relations between Iran and the West. In addition to increasing the state-sponsored terrorism threat, flashpoints such as these conflicts can be unpredictable and occur at relatively short notice, complicating efforts to curb the risk. Another notable flashpoint was the killing of Mahsa Amini by Iranian security forces in 2022, which resulted in “plot after plot here in the UK at an unprecedented pace and scale”. Given the cyclical nature of such incidents, counterterrorism efforts must be sustained continuously.

Iran is by no means the only state that presents a terrorism threat to the UK and its Western allies. Since invading Ukraine, Russia’s international hybrid warfare campaign has become increasingly aggressive. Europe has been proactive in seeking to address this issue, expelling 750 Russian diplomats since the beginning of the war. However, Moscow has adapted its strategy by turning to criminal proxies to execute operations involving espionage, arson, and sabotage. For instance, in March 2025, six Bulgarians living in the UK were convicted of being part of a spying operation on behalf of Russia. Head of the Metropolitan Police’s Counterterrorism Command Dominic Murphy stated that the convictions were a “clear example of the increasing amount of state threat casework we are dealing with in the UK”.

Risk Forecast:

Amid rising geopolitical tensions, strategic competition, and a terrorism landscape marked by emerging threats, businesses, universities, and individuals are advised to strengthen their resilience. The underlying conditions that give rise to terrorism show few signs of abating. If anything, escalating geopolitical rivalries are fuelling a rise in state-sponsored terrorism, increasingly used to destabilise adversaries without provoking full-scale conflict. Recent attacks across Europe and the US highlight that terrorism is an international threat that demands a multilateral response. Despite law enforcement agencies' best efforts, which in the UK have included disrupting 43 late-stage terrorism plots, future attacks are an inevitability.

For businesses—particularly those operating in major metropolitan areas—global intelligence solutions offer a vital tool for responding effectively to a terrorist attack. While every country faces some level of threat from terrorism, the nature and scale vary significantly. Travel risk management strategies, such as country risk reports and journey risk management plans, provide travellers with the key information to understand the risks of a location and support companies to meet their duty of care requirements.