Poland/Russia: Russian Drones Entering Polish Airspace Forces Multinational NATO Response

Executive Summary:

• Over the night of Tuesday 09 to Wednesday 10 September 2025, 19 Russian drones were launched into Polish airspace as part of a broader drone attack on Ukraine. The incident required a multinational response from NATO, with several drones being shot down.

• Fears are growing that Putin is seeking to portray an image of power amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, while also testing Western resolve.

• Considering the possibility of similar incidents occurring in the future, a robust NATO response is crucial. Suggestions such as a new sanctions package on Russia and the implementation of a drone wall along the eastern front are pertinent considerations.

Russia Tests the West

At 2200hrs (local) on Tuesday 09 September 2025, the Polish military received its first reports of a massive drone attack launched by Russian forces against Ukraine. At 2330hrs (local), the first violation of Polish airspace was recorded; the last Russian drone crossed the border at 0630hrs (local) the following morning. The Polish Armed Forces neutralised at least three out of an estimated 19 Russian drones. The operation involved Dutch and Polish fighter jets, while German Patriot missiles were put on alert and an Italian early warning aircraft provided support. Although no injuries were reported, the incursion marks the most serious clash between Russia and NATO since the beginning of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Four airports in Poland, including Chopin Airport, Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport, Warsaw Modlin Airport, and Lublin Airport, were closed due to military activity. Poland also triggered NATO’s Article 4 procedure, activating consultations between member states, and banned drone flights along its eastern border with Belarus and Ukraine until 09 December 2025.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that Iranian-designed Shahed drones were involved in the “unprecedented violation of Poland’s and Europe’s airspace”. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the strike was part of a massive attack on his country, involving 415 drones and 40 cruise and ballistic missiles. A significant number of the drones that entered Poland were launched from the Russian ally Belarus. With Iranian technology contributing to a Russian operation against NATO launched primarily from Belarus, the incident highlights growing polarisation between the West and increasingly collaborative anti-Western nations.

In a statement, Russia’s defence ministry claimed that it had not planned to attack targets in Poland and offered to hold consultations with Poland on the subject. The drone campaign came ahead of major Russian military exercises, running from 12-16 September 2025, involving thousands of Russian and Belarusian troops. The joint drills, called Zapad 2025, will be conducted in western Belarus, raising security concerns in neighbouring Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Poland announced that it would close the border crossing with Belarus at 0000hrs (local) on Thursday 11 September 2025.

The International Response

As expected, NATO countries have condemned the violation. The foreign ministers of Lithuania, Ukraine, and Poland issued a joint statement “strongly condemning the recent incursion of Russian drones into Polish territory,” calling it a “deliberate and coordinated attack” and an “unprecedented provocation”. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer decried the incident as an “extremely reckless move” that underscores Vladimir Putin’s “disregard for peace”. Additionally, French President Emmanuel Macron said the incident was “simply unacceptable”, a sentiment echoed by other European leaders. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha accused Putin of “expanding his war and testing the West”. Even Hungary’s pro-Putin Prime Minister Viktor Orban criticised the move as “unacceptable”. However, US President Donald Trump offered an ambiguous response, posting on social media: “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”

On Wednesday 10 September 2025, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said a full assessment of Russia’s drone incursion into Poland was ongoing, adding that he was “really impressed” with the bloc’s response. Some policymakers, including Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, have called for new economic sanctions on Moscow. EU officials are understood to be ironing out a 19th package of sanctions against Russia. European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius called for the development of a “drone wall” along the eastern flank”, promising to “work together with member states” to find a resolution. The impetus to fund such a programme will likely be greater following the incursion. Along a similar vein, UK Defence Minister John Healey announced that, due to Russia reaching “a new level of hostility”, he had asked the British armed forces to "look at options to bolster" NATO's air defence over Poland. While it remains to be seen whether these ideas are acted upon, their suggestion implies intent to take necessary responsive steps and implement practical solutions.

Ceasefire Negotiations in Ukraine

The incident comes against a backdrop of stalled negotiations to agree a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The attack could provide an opportunity for Europe to convince US President Donald Trump that Russian President Vladimir Putin was never serious about peace. Should Trump conclude that to be the case, European leaders hope that Washington will impose further sanctions on Moscow and boost support for Kyiv. Despite a widely publicised August 2025 meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska, after which the former claimed that “great progress” was made, the talks produced no tangible results. Nothing of substance has been achieved in the weeks since and there are signs that Trump is growing impatient. Nevertheless, it remains unclear exactly how long he is prepared to wait. With Trump refusing to directly supply Ukraine with weapons and threatening to cut off the flow of intelligence to Kyiv since taking office, many commentators have raised fears concerning his commitment to Ukrainian and European security.

Business Implications - A Near Miss

Following the drone attack, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared that the prospect of his country being involved in a large military conflict is “closer than at any time since the Second World War”. Had casualties been inflicted in Poland, the situation could have escalated even more dangerously. Putin has demonstrated his preparedness to test Western resolve more directly despite the escalatory risks and appears intent on portraying an image of power amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. He has often spoken of his desire to return Eastern Europe to the era when it was ruled by the Soviet Union. A robust NATO response centred on deterrence, punishment, and effective responses when necessary is imperative. The fact that several drones were not shot down demonstrates that “lessons need to be learned”, as Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Gregory Grynkewich highlighted. Failure to take necessary steps risks emboldening Moscow to pursue similar, and potentially more severe, actions. The closure of several airports in Poland offers a glimpse of what could be on the way. Causing disruptions and inspiring fear falls in line with the broader Russian strategy of making Europeans experience the ramifications of supporting Ukraine, thereby eroding public resolve and weakening allied unity. The meetings between NATO allies following the invocation of Article 4 by Poland will be an important opportunity for the bloc to orchestrate its response.

A range of companies across several sectors should be watching developments in Eastern Europe closely. For instance, should airport closures become a regular occurrence that causes escalating costs for airlines, operators could decide to cease regional operations. Many air carriers demonstrated their preparedness to take such actions when they stopped flights to Israel following the recent 12-day war with Iran. If this were to occur in Eastern Europe, knock-on effects would also be felt in sectors such as tourism in affected countries. With the incursion raising questions about the region's security, foreign investors may reconsider their exposure to Eastern European countries. These are just a few examples of the likely ramifications should NATO allies fail to manage the situation. For those concerned about the business implications of the deteriorating geopolitical situation between the West and Russia, Global Situational Awareness’s strategic advisory and scenario planning services can offer the insights needed to navigate the uncertain road ahead.