Mexico - The killing of two aides in Mexico City poses a challenge to the political landscape

Intelligence Update:

At approximately 0700 hrs (local) on 20 May 2025, the personal secretary of the mayor of Mexico City, Ximena Guzmán, and her close advisor, José Muñoz, were shot and killed in Calzada de Tlalpan, Benito Juárez borough of Mexico City. The assailant is believed to be an unidentified gunman who rode a motorcycle. The victims were reportedly attacked while driving on a busy central road.

Investigators have reportedly found the motorcycle and two other vehicles that the unidentified gunman used to escape after the shooting. Authorities have launched an investigation to establish a motive behind the attack and to arrest the perpetrators.

Why Guzman and Muñoz?

Although authorities are yet to establish a motive behind the incident and the identity of the assailants, being part of Mexico City’s governance may likely make one a potential target for politically motivated violence. Mexico City is governed by President Claudia Sheinbaum’s ruling Morena party and ally Mayor Clara Brugada.

Experts have suggested that the attack may be a ‘direct message” to Brugada. Criminal organisations in the city have reportedly been trying for a long time to "intimidate and pressure" local authorities for special treatment.

Sheinbaum, who assumed office in 2024, vowed to fight gang violence in the country, and Brugada has equally made progress in the fight against insecurity. The first quarter of the year saw a slight decrease in murder rates within the city compared to the same period in 2024, with no fewer than 188 homicides recorded.

Assessment:

Overall, Mexico City is viewed as safer than many other parts of the country, with rare reports of political assassinations, particularly given its status as the capital. However, in 2020, Omar García Harfuch, Sheinbaum’s current security minister, survived an assassination attempt by suspected members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

Authorities often downplay the influence of major drug cartels in the city. They point to the fact that there are over 80,000 security cameras and a strong police presence in the city. Yet, a recent report from the US Drug Enforcement Administration indicated that powerful cartels, such as the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG have a significant presence in the city but maintain a low profile.

Politically motivated violence targeting politicians and government officials is common across other Mexican states. On 11 May 2025, a mayoral candidate for Texistepec, Yesenia Lara, along with three others, was shot and killed during a campaign event in Veracruz State. Lara was also a member of Sheinbaum’s Morena party. In June 2024, councilwoman Esmeralda Garzón of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) was killed in Guerrero. She endorsed Morena party candidates during the 2024 general elections.

Assassinations targeting politicians linked to the Morena party suggests that criminal organisations are unhappy with the party's policies, showing a change in their strategies as they respond to government actions that threaten their operations.

The latest attack occurred in broad daylight, which, while not surprising for Mexico, reveals how emboldened criminal members have become. Local authorities believe that the killer(s) had previous experience and that the shooting was a direct attack involving a high level of planning. They added that an unnamed individual conducted surveillance in the area days before the incident.

The practice of reconnaissance and surveillance allows criminals to gain a better understanding of the area, their targets' routines, and the quickest escape routes without resistance. Bertha Alcalde Luján, the city’s chief prosecutor, confirmed that the gunman fled into a neighbouring state.

Although it is said that Guzmán and Muñoz both had training in self-defence but did not have what reports described as "special security measures" at the time of the attack. This likely means they were alone in the car without any bodyguards or an armoured vehicle, making them more vulnerable to security threats.

Forecast:

Authorities are likely to strengthen security protocols for government officials not only in Mexico City but also in other states, especially those governed by the Morena party.

Over the next few months, security forces will continue to carry out raids, which may lead to the arrests of high-ranking members of criminal groups. These raids may target both public and private properties within the city.

In light of this incident, political parties may reassess their strategies which will likely influence any upcoming elections in the country.