Mexico: Death of El Mencho may lead to further instability and violence nationwide ahead of the World Cup

 Key Takeaways:

• On 22 February 2026, a Mexican security operation killed cartel boss “El Mencho”, leading to extensive violence and arson attacks nationwide, namely in Jalisco state.

• Despite the violent retaliation by the cartel members, the operation perceived internally to have been a success, both for Mexican authorities and for the future of joint coordination work with Washington.

• While short-term insecurities were largely stamped down, more violence and clashes are expected in the long term until the cartel finds a new head.

• Further political, business and security risks cannot be discounted in the weeks ahead especially in the state of Jalisco and around its capital and the most populous city - Guadalajara.

• Further complications exist ahead for Mexico and that Guadalajara in particular, as it remains one of the host cities for four matches (11-16 June 2026) during the FIFA 2026 World Cup which is less than 100 days away now.

On 22 February 2026, Mexican authorities killed one of the country’s most influential cartel leaders, Nemesio Oseguera, also known as “El Mencho”. He was the head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), and the operation was a direct response to United States (US) calls for action and a result of extensive intelligence coordination between Mexican and US security agencies. According to Mexico’s defence ministry, the operation was conducted in Tapalpa, Jalisco state, and six other members of CJNG were killed. Along with the Sinaloa Cartel, the CJNG was one of Mexico’s most powerful and infamous crime groups, conducting transnational operations including drug trafficking to the US.

Following his death, a wave of crime, violence and vandalism swept across the country. Cartel members violently responded to the death via arson at fuel stations, setting up roadblocks, attacking businesses, and burning cars and trucks. The violence was largely concentrated in the Jalisco state, with Guadalajara, the state capital, reporting at least 30 incidents of shoot-outs and roadblocks on the day of El Mencho’s death. At the peak of the violence, schools in seven states cancelled their classes on 23 February 2026, whilst foreign governments advised its nationals to shelter in place for their own safety.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has a stricter policy on addressing crime groups compared to her predecessor. The killing was part of her increased operations against cartels, aiming to curb the expansion of crime groups, and marked a significant achievement for the government. Nevertheless, transport services immediately shut down after the attack, with Air Canada and United Airlines temporarily suspending their flights to Guadalajara. Jalisco’s governor declared a “code red”, effectively halting public transport and cancelling public events. 2,500 troops were deployed to Jalisco whilst 10,000 were deployed nationwide. Significant unrest was also noted in prisons, with clashes reportedly killing 30 cartel members, many National Guard members and a few prison guards.

Recent Updates

Normal activities have since resumed in Jalisco, whilst Sheinbaum stated that in the rest of the country, “activities are proceeding normally,” and the majority of roadblocks were taken down. While international staff located in Jalisco are still subject to curfew and travel restrictions, airlines have resumed their flight schedules after confirmation that airports and amenities are secure. Some roads in Jalisco remain closed; however, no new ones were blocked in recent days. The risk of potential terrorist attacks and crime in the country, especially against foreign nationals, remains high, and caution is advised. Individuals are also cautioned against any unnecessary travel to Mexico, especially to at-risk areas.

Security Assessment

The successful Mexican operation reflects an efficient and promising policy to crack down on organised crime. It also announces a significant success in US-Mexican coordination and intelligence sharing on jointly fighting drug trafficking. US President Donald Trump had leveraged crucial trade links to push Mexico to crack down on the cartel leader, while also threatening an eventual US intervention and takeover of security measures. This US threat is tangible as the Trump administration recently intervened in Venezuela, toppling former leader Maduro, and now showcases a military build-up in the Middle East, threatening to intervene in Iran. While this could have been interpreted as souring relations with Mexico, the success of the joint operation and the Mexican defence ministry’s claim to demonstrate a strong commitment to fighting organised crime illustrate a strengthening of bilateral ties and regional cooperation on fighting transnational crime.

Domestically, security experts warn of further unrest to come. While the bursts of violence directly following El Mencho’s killing were countered, long-term insecurities remain a serious threat. Similar outbursts of violence and civil unrest erupted after the 2024 capture of Sinaloa cartel boss Ismael “el Mayo” Zambada. The event later led to a state-wide turf war in the Sinaloa state between cartel factions. Succession lines are unclear in the CJNG, unlike traditional cartels, which could lead to future violence that could spread throughout the country and beyond. Leadership vacuums in organised crime can lead to in-rank fighting or clashes with rival groups. Sheinbaum’s flagship policy on fighting organised crime reveals how deeply ingrained the institutions are in Mexico's local ecosystems and politics. While significant progress has been made so far and is likely to continue in the same direction, this kind of fight is a long-term commitment and is likely to be reflected at several levels of the state.

Outlook for Businesses

As travel restrictions, curfews and business closures continue to be lifted, Guadalajara’s position as host for four FIFA matches this summer may reveal several insecurities. Sheinbaum stated there was “no risk” to the World Cup amid the crackdown on CJNG member violence, and cartels usually enjoy a positive spotlight, as it is good for business. However, long-term instability and violence due to the CJNG's unclear line of succession is likely permeate the state. Businesses implicated in local communities may find increased risks in their operations as cartel figures often remain influential locally, providing financial support for local facilities. Tourism is expected to be negatively impacted by the spell of clashes and violence for the next few months, and the impact could be noted during the World Cup in Guadalajara. Increased security planning, contingency plans, and civil unrest can also be expected for the next few months.