Orbán’s Reign Comes to an End: The Impact of the Hungarian Election

Key takeaways:

• Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party secured a supermajority, ending Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule and providing a mandate to overhaul the constitution.

• Orbán's 2024 decline was driven by a child-abuse pardon scandal that damaged his party’s image, coupled with sustained economic stagnation and ineffective campaign strategies.

• While markets responded positively to Magyar’s proposed pro-EU economic reforms, the new government is likely to face ongoing challenges from Orbán-era loyalists and a challenging economic landscape.

• Although Orbán officially conceded defeat, the transition has been marred by allegations relating to the destruction of sensitive documents.

Recent developments

On 12 April 2026, former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán conceded defeat in the country’s general election after ruling the country for 16 years. Péter Magyar, a former Orbán ally who became his fiercest critic, claimed a supermajority, with his Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza) securing two-thirds of seats in the Hungarian parliament. The sweeping victory provides Magyar with the mandate required to change the country’s constitution and unwind Orbán’s efforts to rewrite election rules and consolidate power.

The downfall of Viktor Orbán

Orbán’s decline began in 2024, after Hungarian President Katalin Novák, a close Orbán ally, pardoned the former deputy director of a children’s home who had been convicted of covering up the sexual abuse of at least ten minors. The ensuing scandal prompted Magyar, then a mid-level civil servant and Fidesz member, to stage a public revolt against the prime minister. With tens of thousands of protesters taking to the streets, the accusations shattered Fidesz’s image as a protector of children. Novák and Justice Minister Judit Varga both resigned in February 2024 as a result of the fallout. Although Orbán subsequently proposed new laws to prevent future pardons for those convicted of crimes against minors, the reputational damage was irreversible.

Hungary’s economic woes exacerbated the situation further for Orbán. Voters were deeply dissatisfied with three years of near-zero growth and high inflation, along with cost of living pressures. The parallels drawn by the electorate between their positions and that of Orbán’s inner circle caused widespread discontent. One particularly interesting case was that of a photograph of zebras on Orbán’s father’s country estate emerging to become a symbol of institutional corruption. According to the Human Freedom Index, Hungary has declined significantly in terms of rule of law, control of corruption, political stability, and regulatory control under Orbán’s leadership.

More recently, Orbán’s failures on the campaign trail were emblematic of his waning support and uphill struggle heading into the election. While he attempted to emulate Magyar’s strategy by touring the country in an effort to mobilise support, he galvanised far smaller crowds and was often confronted by angry protesters. In March 2026, a clip of Orbán shouting at a booing crowd, which he accused of wanting “a Ukraine-friendly government”, went viral. While he continued his efforts to frame Ukraine and the European Union (EU) as Hungary's enemies, the electorate proved to be unconvinced.

Domestic impact

While Magyar’s landslide victory provides him with the means necessary to begin to repair the system created by his predecessor, the outcome should be understood as the first battle in a longer war. He will face fierce opposition from all those who benefited under Orbán and the road towards democracy will likely be slow and uncertain. With Budapest’s stock index rising by nearly 5% following the results and the Hungarian forint strengthening sharply against the euro, investors are optimistic about the new government's expected economic policies. Tisza has proposed a more progressive tax system, including potential levies on high incomes and wealth, while maintaining a commitment to fiscal discipline. Additionally, its economic programme, described as the “Hungarian New Deal,” prioritises large-scale public and private investment in infrastructure and modernisation, alongside a more predictable policy environment aligned with European standards. Magyar has also pledged to introduce the euro by 2030, a long-standing demand rejected by previous governments. However, an energy crisis, weak growth, a high fiscal deficit, low productivity, and reduced public investment and competitiveness pressures linked to rapid wage increases relative to Western Europe threaten to slow progress in the short-term.

For Europe and Ukraine

As far as the EU and Ukraine are concerned, Orbán’s downfall will be highly welcome. Orbán, widely regarded as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest ally within the EU, consistently blocked or delayed financial aid and sanctions packages targeting Moscow. Magyar has made it clear that he sees Russia as the aggressor in the conflict with Ukraine and has vowed to rebuild the country’s relationship with the EU. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hailed the outcome as “the victory of light over darkness”. Magyar has signalled that his government will drop its opposition to the EU's €90 billion loan to Ukraine, bringing a four-month standoff to an end. 

With Magyar’s incoming pro-EU government soon to assume power, improved relations between Hungary and the trade bloc are expected. The release of previously frozen EU funds, which could unlock €17 billion in investment across construction, energy and transport, is expected to be a key driver of growth. This will be contingent on measures such as the implementation of anti-corruption reforms and restoring rule-of-law institutions, which Magyar has outlined he intends to do.

A look ahead

Magyar’s new government could take power in the first week of May 2026. During talks with Hungary's president, Magyar pushed for as early a transfer of power as possible. Before the elections, there were significant concerns from analysts and the opposition that Orbán could attempt to prevent an orderly transfer of power. Such fears are unsurprising, considering his restructuring of the country to protect his own ambitions. However, despite these fears, Orbán conceded defeat shortly after results showed a landslide victory for Magyar, acknowledging the "painful but clear" result. While events have been more orderly than some feared, Magyar has raised alarms about the outgoing administration’s conduct during the transition period. This was demonstrated by his accusation that outgoing Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó had been shredding confidential sanctions-related documents at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. There are fears of similar actions in other institutions in an effort to hide evidence of past corruption and systemic mismanagement.