The Digital Transformation and Evolution of Crime: A Threat Landscape Overview

Key Takeaways:

• Nearly all serious and organised crime now has a digital footprint, driven by global connectivity and emerging technologies, highlighting a stark contrast from how serious and organised crime has been known to operate in the past.

• Emerging technologies most commonly seen to aid and abet criminal activity include the dark web, cryptocurrency, cybercrime, encryption, and Artificial Intelligence (AI).

• Cybercrime costs are projected to surpass $12.1 trillion by 2031, making it one of the world’s largest economic threats.

• AI, deepfakes, and automation have professionalised cybercrime, lowering skill barriers and increasing scale.

• Cryptocurrencies and blockchain enable anonymous financial flows, complicating detection and recovery efforts.

• End-to-end encryption shields criminal communications and hinders law enforcement investigations.

• Dark web markets and crime-as-a-service models have replaced many traditional criminal networks.

• The next frontier of digital crime will exploit AI, IoT, and quantum-era vulnerabilities unless defences evolve.

The Evolution of Crime: What Are We Seeing?

Crime has shifted from traditional street-level offences to high-tech, global networks of illicit activity. Cybercriminals increasingly leverage online platforms, sophisticated tools, and emerging technologies to commit fraud, trafficking, and violent crimes while hiding behind encryption and anonymity.

For example, Europol reports that “nearly all forms of serious and organised crime now have a digital footprint,” with darknet markets alone generating an estimated $5–7.5 million in daily revenue. Globally, the cost of cybercrime is staggering: estimated figures for 2025 are $10.5 trillion (making cybercrime the world’s third largest ‘economy’ after the US and China). It is predicted to cost the world $12.2 trillion by 2031. These figures dwarf most traditional crime statistics and underscore how quickly online methods have overtaken legacy criminal tactics.

Taken together, these trends signal a new threat landscape where crime is automated, decentralised, and global. Law enforcement and businesses must adapt to fast-evolving adversaries who use emerging technology to scale attacks and evade detection.

Dark Web and Online Illicit Markets

The internet has become the new black market. This is not new news, but the methods used to exploit people are. Criminals operate anonymous dark web marketplaces and encrypted forums that mimic legitimate e‑commerce sites. These platforms sell drugs, weapons, stolen data and hacking tools under pseudonyms and cryptocurrency payment systems. As of 2025, roughly 30,000 active dark web sites exist, about 56–60% of which are involved in criminal commerce. Many illicit goods are offered: for example, weapons trafficking had over 35,000 listings in 2022 on darknet markets. A significant share of dark web activity is financial crime: over 34% of dark web traffic involves financial fraud, with over 100 million compromised credit cards leaked in 2022 alone.

Criminals also use anonymity networks (like Tor) to hide their activities. While Tor has millions of users daily (over 2 million daily users worldwide), only a small fraction browse illicit content. Still, even 6–7% of Tor users (around 135,000 people daily) connect to hidden services for illicit purposes. These dark web channels allow buyers and sellers to transact without revealing identities, using technologies such as end-to-end encrypted messaging and crypto wallets.

Beyond the dark web, criminals exploit the surface web as well. Social media and legitimate e‑commerce sites now double as marketplaces for illicit trade. Wildlife trafficking, fraud schemes, and drug sales are increasingly organised through ordinary platforms (with stolen or fake accounts) for anonymity and reach. In short, the market for illegal goods has gone online: consumer demand and seller convenience now meet through apps and websites, often out of sight of traditional law enforcement checkpoints.

Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain in Crime

Blockchain-based cryptocurrencies have also revolutionised illicit finance. They enable nearly instant, global money transfers with varying degrees of anonymity. Criminals use crypto for ransomware payments, money laundering, narcotics sales, and investment fraud. The FBI’s 2023 Cryptocurrency Fraud Report highlights over 69,000 complaints of crypto-enabled fraud, with more than $5.6 billion in reported losses in 2023. Investment scams alone accounted for about $3.9 billion of those losses. Overall, crypto-related crime has surged: one survey noted cryptocurrency losses rose 53% from 2022 to 2023, totalling $5.6 billion in the US.

On-chain analysis by security firms paints a similar picture. Chainalysis reports that at least $40.9 billion flowed into cryptocurrency addresses tied to illicit activity in 2024, and projections suggest the total could exceed $50 billion when all data is accounted for. Stablecoins and privacy coins have become especially prevalent in laundering proceeds, reflecting criminals’ shift toward assets that are harder to trace.

Cryptocurrencies also intersect with other digital crimes. Dark web marketplaces typically operate on blockchains: recent estimates show dark web drug markets generated over $1.7 billion in crypto-enabled transactions in 2024 (up 20% year-on-year). Conversely, money laundering risks are rising, with weak regulations and decentralised exchanges providing cover for illicit flows.

In summary, blockchain technology has given criminals new financial infrastructure. Ransomware gangs demand payment in Bitcoin and Ethereum, scammers flee in crypto, and money launderers use exchanges and mixers. Although law enforcement has improved crypto tracing, the borderless and pseudonymous nature of blockchain means criminals wield it as a powerful enabler of digital crime.

Artificial Intelligence and Cyber Threats

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming a double-edged sword in crime. Just as law enforcement experiments with AI tools, cybercriminals are harnessing AI to amplify attacks. The FBI warns that cybercriminals are “utilising publicly available and custom-made AI tools to orchestrate highly targeted phishing campaigns” and sophisticated voice/video cloning scams. These AI-driven attacks are more convincing and scalable. For example, large language models can generate realistic phishing emails tailored to individuals, improving grammar, style, and personalisation. One security report finds 40% of phishing emails targeting businesses were AI-generated. Although recipient susceptibility remains similar to ordinary phishing, AI dramatically reduces the cost for attackers (Harvard Business Review suggests spammers save roughly 95% in writing costs using AI).

AI also automates reconnaissance and hacking. Criminals use AI-powered vulnerability scanners and exploit generators to find weaknesses in servers and Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices faster than ever before. Ransomware groups increasingly use AI to refine attacks, with nearly half of security professionals expecting AI to power future ransomware. AI can write malicious code, identify profitable targets, or even converse in social engineering dialogues. Deloitte predict that by 2027, generative AI could multiply economic losses from deepfakes and other AI-enabled attacks to $40 billion annually.

The result is the professionalisation of cybercrime. AI tools lower the skill barrier, with even novices being able to deploy effective fraud campaigns. Voice cloning and speech synthesis have overwhelmed bank call centres worldwide. For instance, IBM reports banks now face an onslaught of deepfake voice calls aiming to break into accounts.

AI therefore drives cybercriminals to operate at industrial scale. Broader trends (cloud abuse, IoT botnets, automated malware) are magnified by AI’s reach. Organisations are feeling it, with 74% of IT security professionals report significant impact from AI-powered threats. In short, AI is transforming cybercrime into continuous, adaptive campaigns that exploit human trust, weak links, and high-speed automation.

Deepfakes and Digital Deception

A striking example of AI-enabled crime is the rise of deepfakes – synthetic media (audio, video, images or text) that convincingly impersonates real people. Deepfakes have become a versatile tool for fraud, disinformation, and extortion. As mentioned earlier, voice deepfakes allow criminals to sound like executives or loved ones, tricking victims into wiring money or revealing secrets. Bank phone scams using AI-cloned voices have flooded financial institutions; one report notes bank call centres are “overwhelmed by an onslaught of deepfake calls”. Even biometric voice ID systems are “now being finessed and circumvented with deepfake audio”.

Video deepfakes are similarly dangerous. Cybercriminals have produced fake CEO videos to authorise fraudulent transactions and fooled companies into transferring funds. Generative text (AI-authored messages) also floods phishing channels with believable pretexts. In fact, deepfake technology is now part of standard social engineering. It’s so cheap and easy that the average cost to create a deepfake is about $1.33 – though the global cost of it goes into the trillions. That gulf between creation cost and societal cost shows how weaponisable the technology is.

The stakes extend beyond fraud. Deepfakes threaten public trust and safety. In 2024, for example, a synthetic audio robocall impersonating Joe Biden in New Hampshire reached over 40,000 voters, raising alarm about election interference. AI-manipulated content can spread on social media almost freely – “malicious actors spend a mere 7 cents to reach 100,000 social media users with a weaponised deepfake”. Platforms have therefore become vectors for this deceptive content. The World Economic Forum even ranked AI-driven disinformation as the #1 global risk in 2024–2025.

Industries are also feeling the impact. Insurance companies report significant losses from fabricated deepfake claims, and media outlets fear irreparable brand damage if fakes are aired as real. Overall, deepfakes have introduced a new level of uncertainty as any audio or video could be fake, making it harder to trust evidence or even personal communications.

Encryption and Secure Communication

Encryption technology – though a little longer in the tooth than AI – has also reshaped crime. End-to-end encryption on messaging apps and encrypted devices give criminals private channels to plan and execute crimes with little oversight, and governments and banks can no longer easily intercept suspects’ communications. As the FBI bluntly put it, warrant-proof encryption has created lawless digital spaces where offenders traffic in drugs, exploit children, and share terrorist propaganda beyond view.

Criminal networks now widely use encrypted apps like Telegram, Signal, WhatsApp and encrypted devices. The International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) notes that encrypted communications are “widely used in organised migrant smuggling”. Similarly, mobsters and terrorists use encrypted phones (e.g. EncroChat) to hide plans and move funds. When the FBI and international partners tricked criminals with the ANOM app (a fake encrypted phone service), they intercepted thousands of messages that otherwise would have been unreadable.

As a result, these technologies force police to rely on indirect evidence. For example, with end-to-end encryption, investigators must often gather metadata (any relevant information regarding communication that isn’t the direct content of the communication itself, e.g. who contacted whom, when) instead of content. ICMPD experts note that modern criminals encrypt nearly all device data and communications, hindering typical investigative methods. This means law enforcement increasingly needs sophisticated hacking tools, warrants to obtain devices, and/or informants to obtain evidence – all of which are lengthy, costly, and risky. Counter-intelligence sources predict criminals will soon adopt asymmetric encryption systems (public/private key pairs) as a norm, further complicating interceptions.

There is also an intersection between encryption and cryptocurrency as criminals use blockchain transactions as a form of encrypted communication. In practice, converting cash to bitcoin or privacy coins lets offenders “hide their money transfers and protect against hacking” of their assets. In short, encryption (in devices and money) has empowered criminals with privacy that is hard to penetrate.

The Changing Threat Landscape: Why It Matters

This digital evolution of crime that we see play out in ways mentioned above matters because it dramatically expands the reach and impact of criminal activity. Attacks now occur faster, at larger scale, and across borders seamlessly. A single hacker can launch thousands of ransomware attacks in a year by renting tools online. Phishing bots can hit millions of inboxes within minutes. Deepfake scams can sweep through social networks overnight. Security experts and executives are taking note, and IT professionals remain anxious.

Looking ahead, several factors will further shape crime’s digital frontier:

• Technological arms race: As new tech (5G, IoT devices, quantum computing) matures, criminals will find novel ways to exploit it for burglary, surveillance, or sabotage. Conversely, law enforcement must adapt by adopting AI-based detection and blockchain analytics.

• Global instability and disinformation: Geopolitical conflicts and pandemics fuel online crime waves and hacktivism. Disinformation-as-a-service and state-sponsored deepfakes threaten elections and social cohesion.

• Professionalisation of crime: Ransomware-as-a-service will continue, making even low-skilled actors potent threats.

• Regulatory and social response: Laws on encryption, cryptocurrency, and cyber licencing may tighten or adapt. Public awareness and corporate resilience programs will be crucial to mitigate human factors (e.g. phishing).

In conclusion, the digital transformation of crime means that threats can come from anywhere and target anyone with an internet connection. Organised crime groups, lone actors, and even unwitting citizens (through disinformation) are part of this picture. The trends above – AI-driven attacks, encrypted communications, dark web markets, and crypto-fueled crime – define today’s threat landscape. They matter because they change what law enforcement must fight and how businesses must protect themselves. Staying ahead will require global cooperation, investment in technology, and constant vigilance as criminals continue to innovate online.