Zambia’s Copper Boom: A Dramatic Turnaround

Key Takeaways

• Copper-driven growth is reshaping Zambia’s economy, with booming demand from AI, green energy and defence sectors boosting GDP growth and attracting billions in foreign investment.

• Global competition for copper is intensifying, as major powers and new investors race to secure supply, positioning Zambia as a strategic player in the energy transition.

• The boom carries major social and environmental costs, including pollution, limited local processing, and persistent poverty despite strong export earnings.

Zambia’s Copper Comeback

Zambia is experiencing a dramatic turnaround in fortune, driven by a surging demand from the artificial intelligence, green energy and defence sectors. The territory has begun to explore the collaboration which aims to boost the mining sector which enhances the value of mineral resources. According to the US Geological Survey, Zambia is Africa's second-largest copper producer, after the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Copper is essential for producing solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles, positioning Zambia as a key player in the global transition to renewable energy. The sectors have skyrocketed demand for copper, which underpins data centres, electric vehicles and power grids. The metal, vital for solar panels and wind turbines, generates approximately 15% of Zambia's GDP and more than 70% of export earnings. Mining is now driving growth, which is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to reach 5.2% in 2025 and 5.8% this year, placing Zambia among the continent's faster-growing economies.

In September, the US Trade and Development Agency announced a US$1.4 million grant to a Metalex Commodities subsidiary, Metalex Africa, to expand operations in Zambia. At the same time, rising demand for copper is fuelling intense global competition among major powers - including China, the United States, Canada, Europe, India and Gulf states. Investors from India and the Gulf are expanding their footprint, and the United States is returning to the market after largely pulling out decades ago. Zambia is now competing against nations to meet global demand.

The president, Hakainde Hichilema recently told delegates at the African Mining Indaba conference saying that more than US$12 billion had flowed into the sector since 2022. Output rose 8% last year to more than 890,000 metric tons in which the government aims to triple production within a decade. 

The Price of the Boom

The copper market remains volatile, shaped by supply concerns, tariff threats and geopolitical tensions that add layers of complexity. Despite rising demand, production in Zambia involves limited local processing, meaning the supply chain creates fewer opportunities for local communities. Because of the nature of extraction, many potential job opportunities are narrowly missed.

Zambia is effectively racing to supply countries where demand is strongest, often without directly benefiting people in the producing regions. Environmental damage caused by mining has long plagued Zambia’s Copperbelt. More than 70% of Zambia’s 21 million people live in poverty, according to the World Bank, highlighting the stark contrast between resource wealth and lived reality. For decades, Zambians have lived with the consequences of global copper demand.

In February 2025, a burst dam spilled millions of litres of acidic waste near Kitwe. The waste flowed into Zambia’s longest river - a major source of drinking water for local communities. As a result of raw extraction practices aimed at meeting global supply needs, an estimated 300,000 households have been affected. In response, Zambian farmers have filed an $80 billion lawsuit.

The rapid expansion of this heavily polluting industry has also triggered warnings about risks to local communities and growing concerns around extraction, in which raw copper is shipped abroad with little domestic refining. There is a risk that small powerful groups could benefit disproportionately, while ordinary people see little improvement to their day to day lives. At the same time, the “narratives of partnership” promoted by major powers may mask underlying self-interest.

The Road Ahead for Zambia

Looking ahead, demand for copper is expected to intensify, driven significantly by the energy transition, digitalisation, and the expansion of technology. The copper market presents opportunities for developing countries to with copper reserves. Zambia is one country which aims to foster industrial growth while depending on their own raw materials to export.

However, heavy reliance on copper also increases economic vulnerability. Copper-dependent economies are often exposed to external shocks, including trade restrictions and shifting global demand. Global copper production is expected to grow by over 40% by 2040, fuelled by renewable energy systems, electric vehicles and AI infrastructure.

When a country like Zambia competes with nations that have higher economic complexity, those that depend primarily on a single commodity such as copper tend to fall behind. This highlights the broader challenge facing resource-rich developing nations. Zambia faces mounting pressure to meet rising global demand while avoiding economic instability. The challenge lies in balancing continued extraction with a shift beyond raw material dependency.