Germany - Toward Managed Disorder - What to Expect from the 62nd Munich Security Conference 2026

Source: Munich Security Conference

Key Takeaways:

• The Munich Security Conference (MSC) 2026 on 13-15 February 2026 matters less as a problem-solving forum and more as a signal of how global elites are adapting to sustained instability.

• The dominant threat landscape is defined by grey-zone conflict, hybrid warfare, economic coercion, and AI-enabled disruption rather than conventional war alone.

• The conference signals the next 12 months will be shaped by hedging, deterrence, and resilience planning rather than confidence in diplomatic breakthroughs.

• Governments are increasingly preparing for fragmentation of the rules-based order, prioritising redundancy, strategic autonomy, and damage control.

• What MSC does not say explicitly, but reveals clearly, is a collective acceptance of “managed disorder” as the operating condition of global security.

The Munich Security Conference (MSC) remains a unique forum where leaders from governments, business and civil society debate global threats. The 62nd MSC (13-15 February 2026) will bring more than 1,000 participants, including about 60 heads of state and leaders of international organisations, to Munich’s Hotel Bayerischer Hof. Its agenda ranges from European security and the trans‑Atlantic relationship to the global economy and new technologies. The event’s enduring relevance lies in the fact that it convenes decision‑makers precisely when the international environment is deteriorating. What follows in this blog are a number of themes that are likely to emerge from the conference.

Threats dominating the 2026 landscape

Russia’s war and European insecurity

The war in Ukraine is expected to drag on. Janes notes that Russia is likely to intensify grey‑zone operations – sabotage, arson, cyber intrusions, disinformation and infrastructure disruption – to impose costs on Europe below the threshold of war. The Munich Security Report warns that Washington’s wavering support for Ukraine and its transactional approach to European security heighten Europe’s sense of insecurity. Russia’s drone incursions into Poland and airspace violations over Estonia and Romania illustrate how Moscow is probing European defences and political cohesion.

Grey‑zone competition worldwide

Grey‑zone conflict refers to coercive actions below the threshold of armed conflict. The CSIS study ‘By Other Means’ describes a toolkit encompassing information operations, political and economic coercion, cyber and space activities, proxy support and paramilitary provocations. NATO similarly warns that hybrid threats combine disinformation, cyberattacks, economic pressure and irregular forces to blur the line between peace and war. The threat is not limited to Europe. Iran’s proxies continue to harass shipping in the Gulf, China applies economic leverage and paramilitary pressure around Taiwan; a fragile ceasefire persists in Gaza, and competition is intensifying in the Arctic.

The AI‑driven cyber arms race

The World Economic Forum’s Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2026 reports that AI adoption is “supercharging the cyber arms race” as AI‑related vulnerabilities are the fastest‑growing cyber risk, and 64% of organisations account for geopolitical motivations in their cyber strategies. 31% of respondents express low confidence in their nation’s cyber preparedness (up from 26% the year before), highlighting an urgent need for cooperation and resilience. Russia’s and China’s use of AI‑powered influence operations and content manipulation, sometimes termed “AI poisoning”, is becoming a geopolitical tool.

Fragmenting trade and investment

RSIS analysis notes that US “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025 accelerated global trade fragmentation. Trade policy uncertainty indices rose to ten times their 2015-24 average, with the WTO appellate body paralysed and trade restrictions at a century‑high level. Businesses face uncertain regulatory regimes, export controls and sanctions, complicating investment decisions. Global merchandise trade growth is projected to fall to 0.5% in 2026, while foreign direct investment has fallen sharply and firms increasingly adopt dual‑sourcing and near‑shoring strategies to build resilience. The US and China are weaponising economic chokepoints, whilst middle powers like Vietnam and Mexico are emerging as connector states to sustain trade.

Permanent instability and climate shocks

Edelman’s political forecast for 2026 describes a “geopolitical permacrisis” as political conflict, economic fragmentation, and climate shocks now reinforce one another, undermining assumptions of predictable rules and efficiency. The UK, for example, must navigate a triangle of a transactional United States, a cautious European Union and a volatile international system. This environment of chronic volatility means crises are not discrete events but a structural feature of governance.

Preparing for the next 12 months

The MSC’s agenda and the Munich Security Report suggest that 2026 will be characterised by managed disorder rather than a return to stability. The presence of a “Ukraine House” signals that Europe expects the war to continue and is mobilising solidarity and resources accordingly. Discussions on technology and resilience reveal a quiet acceptance that the rules‑based order is fragmenting as actors pursue transactional deals and build parallel frameworks. The very framing of the Munich Security Report – “Under Destruction” – acknowledges that the US‑led post‑1945 order is being dismantled. Despite this, the report notes that actors still invested in rules are organising, seeking to contain the effects of wrecking‑ball politics and probe new approaches that do not depend on Washington’s lead.

In essence, the MSC 2026 will be less about forging grand peace initiatives and more about managing instability. Leaders will discuss how to hedge against unpredictable allies and adversaries, build resilience and maintain a degree of cooperation amidst fragmentation. 

For governments and businesses, the takeaway is clear – adapt to a world of overlapping crises, invest in redundancy and resilience, and engage in diplomacy that hedges against a fraying order. Managed disorder may be the new normal, but preparing for it can still yield stability.