Guinea-Bissau: President Sissoco removes Prime Minister amid institutional crisis

Key Takeaways

• Barros’s dismissal underscores ongoing power struggles as President Sissoco clings to power ahead of the upcoming November 2025 elections.

• The upcoming elections may face credibility issues due to the fact that CNE has lost its authority to function legitimately.

• Continued tensions between the government and opposition may lead to unrest in the near future, particularly if further actions taken by Sissoco’s government undermine the opposition's role in Guinea-Bissau’s politics.

President Sissoco fires opposition Prime Minister

President Umaro Sissoco Embalo has dismissed Prime Minister Rui Duarte de Barros, a move that is expected to help him secure a second term in the presidential election scheduled for 23 November 2025. In a presidential decree, Sissoco replaced Barros with Braima Camara, who previously served as the coordinator of the splinter Movement for Democratic Alternation Group of 15 (Madem-G15), Sissoco’s ruling party. While Sissoco did not provide a reason for removing Barros, the move could be connected to the ongoing power feud with the opposition African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), led by Barros. Camara's acceptance as Prime Minister raises questions about his integrity. He had previously promised multiple times that he would not take on the role of head of government unless MADEM-G15 won the legislative elections.

Power struggles and political tensions

Since coming to power in February 2020 after winning the November 2019 elections, Sissoco has faced accusations of being a “dictator” amid several clashes with the opposition party. Media reports indicate he has gradually attempted to control key institutions under his authority. This includes dissolving the opposition-led National People’s Assembly (ANP) in December 2023, following an attempted coup that involved a gunfight between the presidential guard and the national guard. Reportedly, this was Sissoco’s second attempt to dissolve the parliament, following a previous effort in May 2022. The dismissal of Barros, especially just four months before the planned presidential elections, continues the power struggle that began in 2022. For many months, Sissoco has not been recognised by the opposition as the president after he extended his tenure, with the support of the Supreme Court, to September 2025. However, the opposition argues that his first term ended on 27 February 2025, according to the constitution, which stipulates that a presidential tenure should last for five years and only be renewed once. This has heightened tensions between Sissoco and PAIGC. Although an ECOWAS delegation arrived in the country in March 2025 to resolve the crisis, the mission was cut short after they claimed to have been threatened with expulsion by Sissoco, prompting them to leave. His style of leadership, which refuses assuming responsibility for his actions, contributes to a poorly functioning state.

Sissoco's strategic moves: a game-changer for the upcoming election?

Sissoco has long sought to change the constitution by eliminating the semi-presidential system, which will result in a power-sharing arrangement between the president and the prime minister. The past dissolving parliament, which consisted of a majority from the Inclusive Alliance Platform (PAI)-Terra Ranka coalition of the PAIGC, did not provide him with the opportunity to manoeuvre the system in his favour. Barros's removal further demonstrates Sissoco's determination to prevent PAIGC leadership from holding any influential position in government. Guinea-Bissau’s current system of government allows the majority party or coalition to appoint cabinet members, although the president has the autonomy to dissolve it under certain conditions. The appointment of Camara, a member of MADEM-G15, may draw further criticism from the opposition, who may view it as a strategy to manipulate his way to remain in power. Even if the elections go ahead as planned, their credibility is likely to be questioned, as the most important agency overseeing the process has lost its legitimacy. The National Elections Commission (CNE) has been operating without a renewed mandate since it expired in 2022 and Sissoco has not initiated discussions about its renewal. The delay, which may be deliberate, could be one of his strategies to maintain control over the commission. Additionally, with an ANP, a new head and members of the CNE cannot be appointed, which could explain Sissoco’s actions towards the parliament.

Future developments ahead of the November election

For now, it is difficult to determine how the coming months will unfold. However, Barros’s dismissal signals the beginning of an indirect reshuffle, with more changes likely to follow in the lead-up to November. Opposition supporters and parties have avoided holding protests for many months, hoping that the issues will be resolved. Barros's dismissal and any further announcements that could undermine the opposition and set the stage for unrest. One of the Prime Minister’s roles is to organise the general elections by allowing Camara to hold such a position. This suggests that Sissoco is “indirectly” moving toward an unofficial “centralised” system, which he has long desired. This may further support his push for a presidential-led government. If MADEM-G15 secures a majority during the legislative elections, an ANP dominated by the ruling party may give Sissoco the free will to announce major constitutional reforms.