India-Pakistan - Regional Diplomatic Tensions Worsen Following Kashmir Attack

Intelligence Update:

On 22 April 2025, dozens of gunmen attacked tourist locations, killing 26 people and injuring several others in Pahalgam, Kashmir, a region administered by the Indian government. According to Indian police, 25 of the victims were Indian nationals, while one was from Nepal. The Resistance Front (TRF) reportedly claimed responsibility for the attack on Telegram and further condemned “outsiders” who now reside in Kashmir. They claimed that their presence has led to a demographic change. Eyewitnesses explained that the gunmen arrived in Baisaran Valley, which had over 1,000 tourists and 300 local service providers. They opened fire at some tourists who were eating in restaurants and moved others to nearby forests, where they were shot.

India has accused Pakistan of being involved in the attack, which Pakistan denies. India also threatened a “loud and clear” response to the incident. More than 1,500 people have been arrested by the police across Jammu and Kashmir, and several demonstrations were held in Srinagar over the attack. On 25 April 2025, media reported indicated that both sides exchanged gunfire along the Line of Control, which separates the two countries, but the report did not specify the exact location. India has accused Pakistan of starting the shooting, while Pakistani officials did not respond to that, but said that the shooting did not target civilians.

By 27 April 2025, troops from Pakistan and India continued to exchange fire in disputed Kashmir for a third night in a row. India has accused Pakistan of supporting "cross-border terrorism" after gunmen killed 26 people in the worst attack on civilians in contested Muslim-majority Kashmir for a quarter of a century.

Islamabad has denied any involvement, calling attempts to link Pakistan to the attack "frivolous" and vowing to respond to any Indian action.

Pakistan's army, meanwhile, claimed that it had killed 54 militants who tried to enter the country through its north-western border with Afghanistan -- suggesting the incursion was orchestrated by New Delhi.

Who are the TRF and Why Kashmir?

Meanwhile, German officials expressed concern that these digital traces could indicate a broader Russian strategy to influence events in Germany, potentially involving attacks to support pro-Kremlin political factions and their agenda. The TRF is an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. Both India and Pakistan claim the region, but each country controls a part of it. Armed Kashmiris have been fighting for independence and oppose the Indian government granting resident permits to outsiders. They have threatened violence against those attempting to settle in the region “illegally”. Since 2019, when the Indian government revoked the region’s autonomy, some locals considered close to separatist groups or outspoken have allegedly been imprisoned or warned to remain silent. In 2020, the TRF claimed responsibility for several smaller attacks involving killings. The Indian government has launched security operations against the group, which led to the deaths of several of its fighters. In June 2024, they claimed responsibility for the killing of at least nine people during an attack on a bus in Reasi, Jammu.

Assessment:

The latest attack sees relations between the nuclear-armed rivals plunged to their lowest level in years. It has drawn global condemnation from the governments of the U.S., France, the UK, Qatar, and China. Both countries have taken aggressive measures against each other, targeting travel, trade, and a key water pact since the attack occurred, signalling a growing diplomatic rift. India closed its land borders with Pakistan and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan. This decision raises issues about access to water in Pakistan, as more than 80% of its agriculture and almost one-third of its hydropower rely on this water. The bigger question is whether India can stop water from flowing to Pakistan.

The Indian government also announced the suspension of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) visa programme and cancelled previously issued visas. India ordered Pakistani military advisers at the High Commission in New Delhi to leave the country within a week. Pakistan retaliated by suspending visas for Indian nationals and closing airspace and land borders, stating that any attempt to divert the waters of the Indus River will be considered an “act of war”. Authorities also paused a canal irrigation project, with the Pakistani government accusing India of weaponising the water treaty.

The attack also undermines Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party's claim that peace has been restored to the region. India's strong stance on Pakistan’s involvement, especially after Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said that the attackers are likely “freedom fighters”, is concerning and may provoke military action. The BJP is calling for India to launch military actions against Pakistan. In February 2019, India carried out a retaliatory military strike in Pakistani-controlled areas after a suicide bombing, allegedly carried out by the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) group, killed 40 Indian troops in Balakot. Trade organisations and political leaders ordered shops and businesses to close down as they protested the attack.

The Way Ahead:

The threat against those settling in the region indicates that the group may carry out future attacks, possibly targeting homes instead of tourist sites. As the days go by, fighting may escalate between the two sides. Civilian casualties and the displacement of locals are likely. Diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan may worsen as both governments respond to the situation. There are also fears that India may repeat actions similar to those in 2019, which could lead Pakistan to intensify military readiness on its land and air borders, including military air and land patrols. As India suspends the IWT, it may take measures unknown to Pakistan to hold back the water, which could involve building structures to prevent water from flowing to Pakistan. However, this may come with some challenges. Flights from India to some Western countries in Europe and America may take longer due to Pakistan closing its airspace to Indian flights. The international community may respond by calling for a ceasefire if the violence escalates, with the possibility of sanctions.