Joseph Kabila’s Sentencing: A Possible Game Changer in the Eastern DRC Conflict

Key Takeaways

• Kabila's sentencing might worsen ongoing crisis in Congo, possibly causing more violence as various groups/movements react to the ruling.

• The trial raises concerns about how the country’s justice system is being used for political gains, suggesting that the Tshisekedi administration may be targeting major opposition.

• The court’s ruling poses a threat to the already fragile peace agreements between DRC and Rwanda/M23, complicating efforts to bring stability to the Great Lakes region.

Military high court hands death sentence to former president Joseph Kabila

On 30 September 2025, a high military court in Kinshasa sentenced former president Joseph Kabila to death for war crimes and crimes against humanity, marking the end of a three-month trial. The DRC government, led by Felix Tshisekedi, has long accused Kabila of having ties to the M23 rebels, a group that intensified its violent campaign in early 2025 and captured major cities in eastern Congo. United Nations experts and the DRC government have alleged that Rwanda supports the M23 rebels, which Kigali has continuously denied.

Lieutenant-General Joseph Mutombo Katalayi, who presided over the tribunal, detailed the charges against Kabila, including sexual assault, torture, and insurrection. During the trial, the court accused Kabila of holding meetings with M23 leaders in Goma and inspecting training centres used by the rebels. The court ordered Kabila to pay the government the sum of US$ 29 billion, and US$ 2 billion each to the authorities in North and South Kivu provinces. They also issued an order for his immediate arrest.

The Kabila-Tshisekedi relationship: From power-sharing to death sentencing

Tshisekedi of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress was sworn in as president in January 2019 for the first time after the Constitutional Court confirmed that he had won the disputed December 2018 election. Although Tshisekedi won, Kabila's political allies secured majority in the National Assembly and Senate. Unable to form a government, Tshisekedi signed a power-sharing deal with Kabila’s Common Front for the Congo (FCC), allowing the former leader to remain a key influential figure in Congo’s politics despite no longer being president. Reportedly, of the 65 cabinet positions, 23 went to Tshisekedi’s coalition, while 42 given to Kabila's FCC.

The agreement was short-lived after it broke down in December 2020 when some of Kabila’s allies were dismissed from office. In his defence, Tshisekedi stated that the agreement was a major stumbling block to his reform agenda, which includes fighting corruption. He subsequently dissolved Parliament and formed a new alliance known as the “Sacred Union.” This was the start their rivalry and then in 2021 Tshisekedi began investigating his predecessor on allegations of corruption during his time in office.

As pressure from the corruption probe grew, Kabila went into self-imposed exile in 2023. Even in exile, he maintained strong support in Congo despite accusations of sponsoring M23 rebels. It is important to note that during the 2018 election, when Kabila was president, the current leader of the Alliance of the Congo River (AFC) coalition, Corneille Nangaa, was one of the electoral commissioners who oversaw that election, which secured Tshisekedi’s victory. However, in 2021, both parties fell out over how the elections were conducted. Nangaa went on to form the AFC, and in December 2023, his group formed a coalition with M23. Their past working relationship fuels Tshisekedi’s rhetoric that Kabila and Nangaa are collaborating to destabilise the country.

The recent focus on Kabila was likely triggered by his appearance in Goma in April 2025, a time when the DRC was fighting to contain violence in the east. In May 2025, Parliament voted to remove Kabila’s presidential immunity, paving way for his trial to begin in July 2025 while he was absent from the country.

Court’s ruling triggers heavy criticism from the opposition and rebel group

The ruling has been met with heavy criticism. Civil society groups human rights organisations and political parties, such as Kabila’s FCC and his party, the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), have all described it as a “return to dictatorship” and a “misuse of justice”. Critics argue that the military court did not present enough evidence to support the ruling, citing claims from a former employee of Nangaa, who is currently in prison, that Kabila and Nangaa discussed removing Tshisekedi during phone calls. Many have questioned why the DRC would negotiate with rebel groups if Kabila is a leader among them, suggesting a political vendetta against him. Although the military court has ruled, it remains unclear when or if the death sentence will be carried out.

Since the temporary ban on executions was lifted in 2024, the military court has sentenced hundreds of people including dozens of soldiers to death, but no executions have reportedly  taken place. For some time, there have been concerns about military courts dealing with civilian cases, not only in the DRC but across Africa. During Kabila's trial, he did not have a lawyer present in court, which raised doubts about the future of democracy and the justice system in Congo. Such lopsidedness is one reason why organisations like the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights (ACHPR) strongly oppose military tribunals. AFC/M23 spokesperson Bertrand Bisimwa also condemned the sentencing, stating it violates the Qatar-mediated July agreement.

Kabila’s sentencing and its overall impact in the Great Lakes

Kabila's sentencing, the first involving a key political figure, marks a new chapter in the DRC conflict, as it could further slowdown the U.S. and Doha peace deals. In June 2025, DRC and Rwanda reached a U.S.-brokered agreement to end the violence, which will allow Washington have access to critical minerals in Congo. Although this peace deal did not directly involve the AFC/M23 alliance, it likely helped reduce violence and clashes between rebel fighters and Congolese forces. Peace talks between M23/AFC alliance and DRC began in July 2025, but an August agreement to finalise the truce fell through after M23 accused DRC of not fulfilling its obligations from the July “declaration of principles”, including a prisoner exchange and violations of ceasefire. This peace agreement is crucial for stability in the Great Lakes region, but recent developments may lead the AFC/M23 to withdraw or impose new conditions that could anger Kinshasa officials. The decision could also provoke a new wave of violence in the rebel-controlled regions and deepen political divide amid growing influence for Kabila, undermining Tshisekedi’s efforts to restore peace.