Mozambique - Rising violence in Cabo Delgado and its impact on security

Intelligence Update

On 28 May 2025, militants affiliated with Islamic State (IS) reportedly claimed responsibility for a violent attack on the Katupa military base near Quinto Congresso, in the Macomia district of Cabo Delgado province. The attack, which took place on 27 May, resulted in the deaths of at least 10 soldiers, according to the group’s claim. The militants said that they also destroyed the camp, sharing photographs as evidence. Authorities in Mozambique have yet to comment on this incident.

Recent violence and its implications

For nearly a decade, IS-backed insurgents have conducted violent campaigns in the northern part of Mozambique, particularly in the districts of Palma, Niassa, and Mocímboa da Praia. The province of Cabo Delgado plays a key role in the country’s gas sector and hosts several foreign companies involved in liquefied natural gas projects.

The latest attack marks the second against military units within a month, following an earlier incident on a base outside Maingalewa in Muidumbe on 08 May 2025, which resulted in the deaths of 11 Mozambican soldiers. During the attack, militants reportedly seized mortar bombs, machine guns, and RPG launchers. Notably, local sources indicated that the base was established to protect a major road and a village predominantly inhabited by Christians.

IS-Mozambique has repeatedly accused the government of marginalising Muslim communities, attempting to justify their actions by targeting some Christian groups. However, some NGO’s operating in the country suggested that all religious communities are impacted by these attacks in one way or another. Data from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies reveals that in 2024, at least 349 people were killed in attacks by IS- militants in Cabo Delgado, marking a 36% increase from 2023.

Economic concerns and the resurgence of violence

These incidents highlight a renewed wave of violence in Cabo Delgado. Prior to these attacks on the military positions, militants targeted the Nissa Reserve on 19 April 2025, invading the Chapungo-Kambako Safaris, stole equipment, and set several buildings on fire. At least two people were killed during the incident. Following this, operations at the camp were suspended. In the same month, they returned to Mariri, claiming to have killed six soldiers, while two rangers from the Niassa Carnivore Project remain missing. The frequency of these attacks against Mozambican security forces and other forces indicates an increasing confidence among the militants, allowing them to exert their influence across the region. Three members of the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) were also killed and six were injured in an ambush on 03 May 2025.

The ongoing violence against military infrastructure and conservation areas poses a significant threat to conservation efforts. Over eight conservation centres have been forced to close due to ongoing violence. While the reasons for these attacks on conservation operations are unclear, it may be a strategy to disrupt government revenue and slow down conservation progress. IS-Mozambique claims to be dissatisfied not only with how the government allegedly treats Muslims but also with the government itself and the economy. Importantly, the attacks also demonstrate that militants maintain a strong presence in these forests.

The resurgence of violence coincides with announcements from French oil company TotalEnergies regarding the resumption of operations after suspending them in 2021. Some companies have previously declared a “force majeure” due to the ongoing violence. TotalEnergies, with significant operations in the Afunji Peninsula, announced earlier in May it would resume activities citing improvements and stability in security on the island.

Residents have expressed frustration with the government. They accused the government of failing to address the issue of insurgency. Many believe that the government is prioritising its economic interests by deploying thousands of RDF to protect Western companies in the region. Over 250,000 RDF have been stationed in the area, primarily to fight militants, but they have also faced accusations of targeting civilians, further complicating the security situation. The violence has led to the displacement of thousands of people to neighbouring districts.

Forecast

The planned resumption of TotalEnergies’s LNG project in the Afunji Peninsula heightens the risk of renewed violence. This development will likely lead to increased military deployments, which could worsen social tensions and reinforce feelings of marginalisation among local communities.

Total’s announcement may also prompt other foreign businesses to reconsider returning to the region. However, the resurgence of violence could also lead some foreign businesses to temporarily suspend operations. The recent wave of violence may deter potential investors as they weigh the security implications.

With the theft of sophisticated military weapons and vehicles, further attacks in Cabo Delgado are likely in the coming weeks. Clashes between soldiers and militants are likely to intensify as government forces increase up their operations.