Sudan - RSF drones strike Presidential Palace in Khartoum following army recapture of site and Central Bank in Khartoum

INFORMATION

• On 21 March 2025, Sudan’s Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a drone strike against the Presidential Palace in Khartoum, hitting the outer courtyard. The attack resulted in the deaths of at least 10 individuals, including military personnel and journalists. The drone attack came shortly after the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) claimed to have recaptured the Presidential Palace and key government buildings in Khartoum.

• The incident took place during a gathering of media and military officials who were celebrating the reported takeover of the Palace. In a statement following the attack, the RSF provided conflicting information. They stated that they had killed around 89 personnel and destroyed several military vehicles.

• On 22 March 2025, Sudanese army forces also regained control of several strategic sites and government buildings in central Khartoum including the Central Bank and the headquarters of the General Intelligence. Although their is an element of the fog of war in accuracy of reporting on the ground, the army advanced further and reclaimed the northern entrance of the Tuti Bridge, a vital connection between Tuti Island and central Khartoum over the Blue Nile. Sudanese army units shared footage of their deployment within Al-Fatih Tower, Central Bank and the northern access point to the Tuti Bridge, marking a significant military push in the capital.

  
  

ASSESSMENT

• The Presidential Palace had been under RSF control since the conflict escalated in April 2023. After the RSF captured significant parts of Khartoum including the Palace the government relocated to Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast. Since then, SAF has engaged in heavy fighting with the RSF to seize control of its lost territory. Following the army’s announcement on 21 March 2025, the RSF in a statement, declared that the battle for the Palace "is not yet over," indicating their intention to continue fighting.

• While RSF still holds some areas of Khartoum, they have lost a significant part to its rival SAF. If SAF continues to advance and successfully pushes RSF out of Khartoum, General Abdel Fattah may strategically position himself as the legitimate leader of Sudan.

• Despite their setbacks, the RSF has demonstrated the capability to recapture lost territory, as evidenced by the recent drone attack. Furthermore, even with the loss of much of Khartoum, the RSF maintains control over significant regions, including Darfur.

• Last month in February 2025, RSF leaders and allied groups gathered in Nairobi, Kenya to sign a charter to form a parallel government. 

• The army’s gains in Khartoum could undermine the RSF's efforts to present themselves as partners in any future political transition.

• Additionally, it is important to note that Khartoum International Airport remains under RSF control, further complicating the situation.

  
  

FORECAST

• Over the past month, the territorial control of the RSF has been shrinking rapidly in favour of the army across several states, including Khartoum, Al-Jazira, White Nile, North Kordofan, Sennar and Blue Nile. The army and RSF have been fighting since mid-April 2023. More than 20,000 people have been killed, and 14 million have been displaced, according to the UN and local authorities. Research from US universities, however, estimates the death toll at around 130,000.

• The international community and the UN have called for an end to the war, warning of an impending humanitarian catastrophe as millions face famine and death due to food shortages. The conflict has spread to 13 of Sudan’s 18 states.

• Intense fighting is expected to persist in Khartoum as the military strives to solidify its control over the city and occupy other areas currently held by the RSF, including the airport.

• The RSF's strong presence in Darfur and certain parts of southern Khartoum suggests that the conflict in the country is far from over.

• Additionally, fighting in other parts of Darfur is likely to continue  and intensify in the coming weeks as the RSF seeks to maintain its control over the region following recent losses in Khartoum.