The New Frontline: The Spread of Terrorism from the Sahel into Coastal West Africa

Key Takeaways:

• The Sahel has become the global epicentre of terrorism, with the majority of terrorism-related deaths now occurring in the region.

• Al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is actively expanding its influence and operations from the Sahel into coastal West African states, directly threatening the security of Benin, Togo, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire.

• Regional initiatives, such as the Accra Initiative, are attempting to counter the spread through enhanced security cooperation and intelligence sharing.

• The escalating insecurity poses a significant risk to the economic stability of coastal states and their key sectors.

The Sahel: Global Terrorism Epicentre

Over the past two decades, the Sahel region has seen a surge in terrorism, with violence mostly concentrated in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. According to the 2025 Global Terrorism Index (GTI), the Sahel accounts for 51% of global terrorism-related deaths. Terrorism deaths have increased almost tenfold since 2019. In 2007, the Sahel accounted for only 1% of global deaths. The report also stated that the total deaths from terrorism are now considerably higher in sub-Saharan Africa than in any other region.

Sub-Saharan Africa has also recorded the most deaths from terrorism for the past eight years. In Burkina Faso, for instance, the country remained the most impacted by terrorism in 2024, recording the most deaths from terrorism for the third consecutive year. Despite experiencing a 21% reduction in terrorism deaths and a 57% decline in attacks, it had 1,532 total deaths. The al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which was formed in 2017, has expanded across the Sahel, often targeting civilians, local security forces and counterterrorism operations. Despite counterterrorism efforts, the group remains among the most active terrorist threats in the region. JNIM was the second deadliest terrorist group in 2024, with 1,454 deaths from 146 attacks attributed to the terror group. In the Sahel, ethnic conflicts, poor governance, and environmental degradation have all contributed to the increase in terrorism, which has worsened with the rise of transnational jihadists.

A New Front: The Spread of Terrorism from the Sahel to the Coast

JNIM has pushed to expand from Burkina Faso toward Niger, and southward toward Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo over the years. Benin and Togo continue to face an increasing number of attacks, while Ghana remains on high alert due to its proximity to Burkina Faso and Togo and an ongoing chieftaincy crisis in the country’s north. Northern Togo has also seen a rise in attacks as militants target Togolese soldiers in the border areas.

The Togolese Government declared a "state of security emergency” in the Savanes region in 2022 and has been repeatedly extended until at least March 2026. In Benin, there has been an increase in militant activity in the north since 2021, especially in Atakora and Alibori departments, with frequent attacks on security forces resulting in several casualties. Attacks near the borders with Burkina Faso and Niger, especially in Alibori, have resulted in the killing of Beninese soldiers since the start of 2025. According to the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, Benin saw roughly an equivalent number of fatalities in 2024 (153) as in 2023 (160). Meanwhile, Togo experienced a 45% increase in fatalities (rising from 66 to 96 deaths).

Cote d’Ivoire faces a similar exposure to terrorism largely due to its shared borders with Mali and Burkina Faso. The country recorded its first attack in 2016 when militants killed at least 16 people on a beach resort in Grand Bassam, which was popular among both locals and foreigners. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claimed responsibility for the attack. In 2020, militants attacked a security post in the town of Kafolo, on the border with Burkina Faso, killing at least 14 soldiers and injuring six others. The attack prompted the Ivorian army to create a new military zone in the north of the country on 13 July 2020.

In August 2025, militants launched an attack in Difita in the Téhini Department in the Zanzan District, killing four villagers. Although at the time of writing, no group claimed responsibility for the attack, reports claim that the attackers are believed to be Burkinabé Volunteers for the Defence of the Homeland (VDP) who crossed into Ivorian territory. The VDP is a self-defence militia in Burkina Faso, which has been increasingly involved in counterinsurgency operations since the beginning of the security crisis in 2015. Nevertheless, Difita is 2 km from the Burkinabé border, where jihadist groups, particularly JNIM, continue to spread their influence. The latest attack highlights vulnerabilities of Ivorian security forces in countering incursions and gaps in the border. Repeated attacks also threaten to destabilise coastal states in line with JNIM’s expansion strategy.

Regional Response: The Accra Initiative

In response to the growing insecurity linked to violent extremism in the coastal region, the Accra Initiative was launched in September 2017 by Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo.  Mali and Niger joined in 2020, and Nigeria has maintained observer status since April 2022. The member states focus on intelligence gathering, collation, and sharing. This involves regular exchanges between security and intelligence agencies in an informal structure.  Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana launched joint security operations under “Koudanlgou” in the southern and western areas of Burkina Faso in May 2018 and November 2024. Koudanlgou II, reportedly resulting in the neutralisation of 16 elements of Islamic State for the Greater Sahara (ISGS) in November 2018. Although it seemed successful at its initial stages, the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) presents challenges in intelligence sharing and participation in counter-terrorism initiatives among member states. The success of the initiative will also depend on its ability to address the root causes of radicalisation, such as poverty, unemployment, and marginalisation, which are often exploited by extremist groups.

The Escalating Crisis and Heightened Risks for Regional Travel and Business

The protracted conflict in the Sahel has allowed the spread of terrorism into the coastal region. Jihadists have been able to develop operational footholds in the northern parts of some of the coastal counties due to the worsening insecurity, limited state presence, and challenging terrain. The escalation of violence poses significant risks to business and investment in the region. Increased insecurity raises the likelihood of direct harm to personnel and assets, particularly in the agriculture, mining, and tourism sectors, which are vulnerable to disruption by extremist groups. Reinforced protection of critical infrastructure, personnel, and logistics chains in the region is strongly advised.

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