US / Mexico / Canada: Risks, Challenges, and Threats Ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup
- Paul Ainscough
- Sep 23
- 6 min read
Key Takeaways:
The multinational nature of the upcoming World Cup presents unique coordination, security, and infrastructure challenges for the host nations.
With historical examples of terrorist groups targeting major sporting events serving as a warning, effective counter-terrorism planning will be crucial. Trilateral security cooperation initiatives, coupled with exercises involving Qatari delegations involved in the planning of the last World Cup, suggest counter-terrorism planning is being taken seriously.
Advanced technological solutions, including AI-surveillance and facial recognition, are poised to play a greater role at the tournament.
Comprehensive emergency and medical preparedness exercises are underway across host cities, addressing threats from terrorism, crowd incidents, cyberattacks, and natural disasters. Past tournaments highlight gaps in medical preparedness and response that must be addressed.
Background
Although it may still seem like a long way off, planning for the June-July 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America is well underway. Qualification began on 07 September 2023 and the process continues to see who will join hosts Canada, Mexico, and the United States as part of the 45 successful teams entering the world's biggest stage for football. As of late September 2025, Japan, New Zealand, Iran, Argentina, Uzbekistan, South Korea, Jordan, Australia, Brazil, Ecuador, Uruguay, Colombia, Paraguay, Morocco and Tunisia have all so far qualified hoping to bring their skill and prowess to the tournament alongside the razmataz of the expected large contingent of travelling fans.
The draw for the tournament is set to be made at the Kennedy Center Washington on 05 December 2025, and US President Donald Trump will head up this side of the presentation alongside FIFA President Gianni Infantino. As the world’s most-watched sporting event, addressing the challenges and threats associated with the tournament is a major focus. With the matches set to be played in 16 venues across the US, Canada, and Mexico, the tournament expanding from 32 teams to 48, and five million people expected to attend, risk planning is a complex, multinational undertaking.
Counter-Terrorism: A Multinational Undertaking
An event on the scale of the World Cup requires particularly extensive strategic planning. Large-scale sporting events have historically been terrorist targets. Prominent examples include the hostage crisis at the 1972 Munich Olympics, the 1996 Olympic Park bombing in Atlanta, and the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. With the 2026 World Cup stadiums boasting capacities ranging from 45,500 to 93,000 people and millions watching around the world, a successful attack could inflict serious harm and bring attention to the perpetrator's cause on the world stage. This makes such an operation an attractive prospect for many terrorist organisations. Jihadist extremist groups, such as Islamic State and Al Qaeda, are two examples. Concerns have also been raised about gang violence associated with the cartels in Mexico and high gun violence rates in the US. Some have even called on FIFA to strip the US of hosting the tournament in the wake of the recent assassination of political commentator Charlie Kirk while hosting an event at a university in Utah.
With the tournament set to be held across three countries, there is an emphasis on cooperation and coordination to ensure an effective counter-terrorism strategy. For example, the Organization of American States, through its Inter-American Committee against Terrorism, and the UN Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute, will develop a set of best practices for major sports event security. This will encourage integrated planning, public-private sector partnerships, community engagement, and regional cooperation. Intelligence sharing between various government agencies is also set to play an important role. Efforts include sharing intelligence from previous events, conducting international counterterrorism exercises, and implementing lessons learned from global threats to ensure a secure tournament.
Trilateral security cooperation initiatives among the three host nations are being operationalised to combat transnational threats, including coordinated criminal activity, emphasising the importance of synchronised enforcement and prosecution strategies. In the US, a dedicated World Cup Task Force has been activated to coordinate national-level planning, with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) prioritising critical areas such as border integrity, airport safety, and overall public protection. The Diplomatic Security Service has already attended a FIFA World Cup International Counterterrorism Exercise in Mexico and hosted a Qatari delegation to discuss lessons and best practices learned from the 2022 World Cup.
Securing Infrastructure Through Technology
Crowd management and stadium security will be among the most pressing issues for planners. Tragedies such as the 2021 Astroworld crowd crush underscore the dangers of overcrowding and the criticality of effective planning. Ensuring the safety of spectators requires the implementation of multilayered screening zones, controlled access points, real-time surveillance systems, and well-trained security personnel. Robust access control measures will be important to preventing infiltration and the presence of prohibited items. Additionally, advanced technological solutions, including AI-surveillance and facial recognition, will be employed to identify potential threats and suspicious behaviour.
The expansive geography of the tournament, in stark contrast to the compact 2022 Qatar World Cup, demands meticulous coordination across air, rail, and road systems. Security at ground transportation hubs such as train stations and bus terminals will be crucial, as these spaces may become attractive soft targets. Infrastructure could also be impacted by other hazards, such as a natural disaster; consequently, sophisticated technological solutions that provide live feeds and critical infrastructure mapping will be crucial to enabling rapid decision-making in a crisis.
Room For Improvement: Crisis Management and Health Security
Scenario-based drills and comprehensive crisis management exercises have been underway across multiple host cities, including Atlanta, Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, New York/New Jersey, and Dallas. Responses to threats, including terrorist attacks, crowd crushes, cyberattacks, and natural disasters, have been accounted for. They have involved table-top simulations, full-scale live drills, and inter-agency communication rehearsals designed to expose vulnerabilities. Many of the technological advancements mentioned prior will play an important role in identifying and responding to emergencies.
Medical preparedness and response capabilities have often been a secondary concern behind financial, political, and logistical considerations for FIFA when deciding which country should host the tournament. This is demonstrated by how the decision to schedule the Qatar 2022 World Cup in extreme heat was only mitigated by technological adjustments after scheduling was already finalised. Reports from global medical bodies have suggested that initial planning underplayed the health implications of environmental stressors. Additionally, during the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, only 34% of surveyed hospitals had received preparedness training, more than half lacked formal public agency communication channels, and just 27% could isolate patients during infectious surges. With mass gatherings increasing the risk of the spread of infectious diseases, it is pivotal that local hospitals are capable of absorbing a potential spike in patients. It would also be pertinent to form medical advisory groups comprising clinical leaders, public health officials, and operational stakeholders to guide contingency planning. With games being played in so many cities, there is a risk of some hospitals being better prepared than others.
Balancing Free Expression with Managing Civil Unrest
Most cities anticipate that demonstrations may occur during the 2026 World Cup. With the tournament providing an opportunity for activist groups to draw attention to their cause, Amnesty International have highlighted the importance of FIFA and the host nations ensuring “the World Cup does not become a pretext for stifling dissent or expanding mass surveillance”. Environmental activists, pro-Palestinian organisations, political groups, as well as pro- and anti-immigration entities are examples of actors that could mobilise. While some cities are planning on setting up designated free expression zones, others are focusing on policing protocols. There is no guarantee that activist groups will adhere to any guidelines or rules set out by organising bodies. It is entirely possible that certain groups will plan actions with the intention of being as disruptive as possible. It will be important for law enforcement agencies to balance the need for free expression with ensuring the tournament goes ahead with minimal disruption. If local police take an overly draconian approach when responding to protest actions, there is a risk of angering protest groups, potentially leading to more disruptive actions. The matter could even cause reputational damage for the host nations and create a negative narrative that could taint the competition.
On The Rise: Cybersecurity Challenges
The upcoming World Cup is a prime target for fraudsters and cybercriminals. During the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, the volume of malicious emails with the aim of committing financial fraud doubled across the Gulf countries. Despite Qatar’s investment of $1.1bn in cybersecurity, hackers were still able to set up fraudulent websites. An effective cyber attack on the critical infrastructure of the host cities could have a massive impact. The threat posed by cyber attacks has grown significantly as technological dependence has increased and the sophistication of malicious actors has grown.
Business Implications
The upcoming World Cup is projected to create substantial economic benefits, generating billions in GDP and creating hundreds of thousands of jobs across the host countries. The economic incentives are a major reason why so many countries invest heavily in bidding for the tournament. Sectors such as hospitality, tourism, retail, and transport stand to benefit from the influx of millions of spectators, while sponsors and media partners could see substantial returns from global exposure. However, companies face operational, reputational, and financial risks linked to security incidents, protests, cyberattacks, or infrastructure disruptions. For businesses interested in gaining an in-depth understanding of the risks and opportunities in the context of the tournament, Global Situational Awareness’s Geopolitical Strategic Risk Advisory service could be the answer.
