Central African Republic - How CAR's insecurity and economic situation are shaping the upcoming elections

Intelligence Update

• On 26 June 2025, the United Nations Security Council convened to discuss the ongoing violence in the Central African Republic (CAR).

• During the meeting, members discussed about the upcoming general elections, the operations of the UN peacekeeping mission in the CAR (MINUSCA), and the unabating conflict in the country.

• The meeting emphasised the importance of holding the elections in accordance with the April 2019 agreement, which called for rebel groups to end hostilities.

• However, ongoing clashes between government forces and armed militias, as well as tensions between the ruling government and opposition, pose significant threats to the political climate in the country.

• MINUSCA plans to support the CAR government by conducting border patrols across various prefectures ahead of the elections, just as they assisted with logistics and technical issues during the voter registration process in November 2024 and March 2025.

Challenges to the 2025 Elections

• Elections in the CAR have have been postponed on several occasions due to a variety of issues, including logistical, financial, technical, and security challenges. Both the CAR government and the UN are collaborating to prevent further delays. With just six months remaining, there are concerns that the elections scheduled for December 2025 may be postponed again, particularly due to unresolved technical issues during the voter registration period and lack of funding. The National Electoral Authority (ANE) has reported a deficit of US$ 9 million after it recently revised its budget from US$19 million to US$21.8 million. Of this amount, US$ 12.4 million will be managed by the UN Development Programme (UNDP), while the remaining US$9.4 million will be provided by the CAR government. The government will have to look for ways to secure additional funding.

  
  

• More than half of the country is under the control of armed groups seeking to exploit natural resources. The north-eastern border area is facing threats from suspected armed fighters from Sudan, while the southern border with the Democratic Republic of Congo and the north-western region with Chad are experiencing similar issues. Rebel groups such as the 3R (Return, Reclamation, and Rehabilitation) and UPC (Union for Peace in the Central African Republic) have launched violent attacks against government forces and their allies. MINUSCA peacekeepers have also been targeted in the violence.

  
  

• On 20 June 2025, unknown gunmen attacked Zambian peacekeepers on patrol in Vakaga prefecture. One peacekeeper was killed while another was injured. The incident marked the fourth attack against UN peacekeepers in the country and the third deadliest for the mission. Earlier in June 2025, armed men attacked a Nepalese contingent, and left two injured. In February and March, two peacekeeper (a Tunisian and a Kenyan) were killed in separate attacks in Bamingui-Bangoran and Haut-Mbomou prefectures, near the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo.

  
  

• The National Electoral Authority (ANE) has also highlighted increasing violence against women. Both armed groups and government forces have been accused of human rights violation against thousands including girls and women, forced marriage, trafficking etc. Another significant threat in the country is the violence involving Russian Wagner forces and locals. The group has also been accused of attacking civilians including local miners in their plot to acquire mining sites. Some reports have accused them of extra judicial killings, arson attacks, gender-based violence, and forceful abductions.

  
  

• The crackdown on opposition party members, government critics, and civil society groups is another factors that will likely hinder free and fair elections in the country. Reports have accused President Faustin-Archange Touadéra's government of intimidation (both online and offline), arbitrary arrests and imprisonment, and the banning of opposition rallies. Opposition parties have raised doubts about the credibility of the ANE, as most of its members are seen as loyalists to Touadéra. The controversial 2023 constitutional reform, which extended presidential terms from five to seven years and removed term limits, allowing Touadéra to seek re-election and solidifying his grip on power, remains a major topic of discussion among the opposition.

  
  

What to expect

• The challenges posed by rebel groups and armed militia in border prefectures could lead to the postponement of the election, particularly with the increasing attacks on MINUSCA forces. Should the elections proceed amid the current security conditions, the opposition may use this as a justification to demand a cancellation, while questioning its legitimacy. Already, the opposition have shown strong resistance to the presidential elections due to the controversial constitutional reforms.

  
  

• With armed groups and even some government allies allegedly benefiting from the decade-long instability, fighting and violence are likely to persist. These groups may continue to launch coordinated attacks to prevent the elections from taking place.

  
  

• The recent UN Security Council meeting is a sign that the organisation is committed to facilitating a free and fair election in CAR. In the coming months, there may be increased collaboration between the CAR government, the UN, and other stakeholders, ahead of the elections.