Vatican City - Security Concerns Mount Ahead of Pope’s Funeral

Key Takeaways:

• The Pope’s upcoming funeral presents a major security challenge for Italian authorities, who are executing an extensive and complex operation.

• Around the Vatican City, a 'Ring of Steel' has been established including fighter jets, sniper units, airport-style security checks and a large police presence to manage the arrival of world leaders and hundreds of thousands of expected mourners. This also includes the establishment of a 24-hour no-fly zone over Rome.

• On 24 April 90,000 people filed past the Pontiff's body following an 8 hour wait for access to pay respects to him.

• Factors including strong media attention, the religious element, and large crowds increase the appeal of the event as a target for Islamist terror groups.

• Travel disruptions are highly likely and visitors should expect closures, restrictions, and huge crowds.

• The Pope will continue to lie in state until the evening of 25 April 2025 and at around 1900hrs (local) his coffin will be closed and final preparations will be made for his funeral during the morning of 26 April 2025.

Situation to Date:

On 21 April 2025, Pope Francis, leader of the Roman Catholic Church, died at the age of 88 after suffering a stroke and subsequent heart failure. He had recently been discharged from the Gemelli hospital in Rome following a 38-day stay for pneumonia. With the proceedings presenting a multitude of risks, Italian authorities have been tasked with executing a highly complex security operation with relatively little notice.

Risks and Realities:

With the public mourning period ending on Friday 25 April 2025 at 1900hrs (local) and the Pope’s funeral set to take place on Saturday 26 April 2025 in St Peter’s Square, events are unfolding quickly in Rome and Vatican City. As hundreds of thousands of people travel to the region, the logistical and security challenges throughout the period are considerable. Visitors will travel from all over the world to participate in mourning proceedings, including world leaders such as US President Donald Trump, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, Prince William, and French President Emmanuel Macron. The comprehensive list of high-profile individuals raises the profile of the event and the associated risks. In addition to increasing the number of potential targets for an assassination, the certainty of widespread media attention following such an incident enhances the event’s appeal as a target.

According to the European Union’s law enforcement agency Europol, there is an “acute” ongoing threat posed by Islamist terror groups across Western Europe. The Pope’s funeral presents an attractive opportunity to such organisations. The Catholic religious element of the funeral would increase the symbolic significance of such an attack. Furthermore, given the scale of the event, the damage caused by an act of violence could be amplified. Previous attacks, such as the October 2017 Las Vegas shooting, have demonstrated the heightened impact potential of such an incident when a large crowd is involved.

Another less obvious threat to emerge is cybercrime, with online scammers using the death of Pope Francis to steal data in what experts are calling an example of “cyber threat opportunism”. According to cybersecurity firm Check Point, posts on social media platforms, including Instagram and TikTok, are seeking to trick social media users into clicking on links embedded in the posts. The posts spread fake news stories about the Pope’s death in a bid to spur online sharing and elicit curiosity, thereby luring unsuspecting users to fraudulent websites.

Travel disruptions leading up to, during, and following the funeral are highly likely in Rome and Vatican City as demand for public transport services inevitably increases. In Rome, the potential for delays will increase with each high-level arrival. Diplomatic traffic could lead to airspace congestion or rescheduled arrivals, particularly at Leonardo da Vinci Rome Fiumicino Airport (FCO), the main international airport in Rome. On the day of the funeral, travellers should brace for flight disruptions and congestion at FCO and Rome’s secondary airport, Ciampino (CIA). Road closures could occur along the city’s major arteries and around Rome’s ring road, the Grande Raccordo Anulare. Similar disruptions could occur in other Catholic countries hosting religious events, such as Spain, Portugal, Hungary, and Poland. Visitors are advised to avoid the area if possible and remain updated on announcements from local officials.

After a pope dies, a papal conclave is held by the College of Cardinals to choose a successor. Traditionally, this begins after a two-week mourning period. There are currently 135 cardinals eligible to participate under the voting age requirements. During the process, the cardinals will gather in the Sistine Chapel and isolate themselves from the outside world until a decision is reached. While intended to ensure voting impartiality by protecting the process from external influence, in today’s security landscape, the manner in which the conclave is held introduces certain risks. For instance, the concentration of high-profile individuals in one location poses an elevated threat of a terrorist attack targeting the gathering. In addition, the isolation protocols could hinder any response or evacuation should a security threat occur in Italy, Rome, or the Vatican City. On a broader scale, should an international incident occur, the conclave’s immediate response could be delayed, compromising the Vatican’s diplomatic role during global crises.

A Multifaceted Response:

Authorities in Vatican City and Rome have announced a range of measures as part of their extensive security strategy. In a statement, Rome Police Chief Marcello Fulvi outlined plans for a strong police presence, with 8,000 security agents being mobilised for the funeral, including 2,000 uniformed police officers and another 1,400 in plain clothes. Law enforcement personnel have been deployed to Piazza San Pietro, Borgo, Via della Conciliazione, and popular tourist destinations such as the Cappella Sistina.

The authorities are bracing for significant surges in pedestrian and vehicular traffic, particularly in central Rome. To support crowd control efforts, mobile barriers, metal detectors, and controlled entry points will be utilised. Checkpoints are also being set up along access roads and an expanded no-fly zone will be implemented around Vatican City and patrolled by fighter jets.

Some 500 doctors and nurses from the civil protection and regional health service will be present, with ambulances also on standby.

To enhance monitoring capacity, an Italian military unit specialising in drone reconnaissance will be deployed to monitor the airspace on Saturday. Authorities will also be monitoring the Tiber River, which flows through the Italian capital.

Benedict XVI's funeral in 2023 drew around 200,000 people but this is a special Catholic year – a holy Jubilee year – so at least 250,000 faithful are expected to turn out for Francis. Large crowds of mourners remain in central areas of Vatican City, particularly at Piazza San Pietro and in the vicinity of Santa Maria Maggiore, where Pope Francis will be buried.

Italian authorities have not reported any specific threats related to the proceedings, given the overall elevated threat of Islamist terrorism in Western Europe, the potential for Islamist terrorist attacks cannot be discounted within the Vatican City and / or Rome.