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Global Deep Dive – Israel – Iran Conflict Week 1 Assessment
US President Donald Trump subsequently imposed a 2-week ultimatum for the agreement of a deal with Iran, prompting European leaders to hold an emergency summit with Iranian counterparts in Geneva, Switzerland. Whilst President Trump’s stated desire to make a deal may provide limited scope for a diplomatic resolution, continued strikes are assessed as highly likely to take place over the next 24-48 hours, posing continued disruptions to air travel, maritime logistics, and reg
Jun 2011 min read


Kenya – Public outrage over blogger’s death sparks fresh anti-government protests
Anti-government sentiments are likely to intensify as public pressure continues to mount on Kenyan authorities. As the situation remains unstable, sporadic or planned protests are likely to spring up in areas such as Nairobi and Mombasa, increasing Kenya’s country risk profile. This is likely to result in disruptions to business operations and travel within the Central Business District. Violence is also likely, as government security forces often respond with force.
Jun 204 min read


US-China Trade Talks Shed Light on China’s Critical Minerals Dominance
Recent US- China trade talks in London followed a rare 90-minute phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at easing trade tensions. Since an agreement on 12 May 2025 to roll back the majority of the triple-digit tariffs, resolving trade tensions has emerged as a shared priority. One major reason for Washington’s interest in coming to the table is Beijing’s utilisation of export controls on a range of critical rare earth minerals and
Jun 195 min read


Global Deep Dive – Israeli Strikes Against Iran Elevate Risk of Regional Conflict - 13 June 2025
Whilst Israeli strikes against Iranian targets are highly likely to continue over the 24-48 hours, their long-term impact remains uncertain.
Operation Rising Lion was likely conducted to comprehensively eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities: an aim American policymakers would likely have rather achieved through diplomatic efforts.
The operation’s scale marks a notable escalation from previous clashes, elevating the likelihood of an all-out war erupting between Israel and Ira
Jun 1313 min read


Georgia: The Next Member of Europe’s Antidemocratic Alliance?
The formation of an anti-democratic political bloc including Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, and Georgia is assessed as likely to occur. This will likely increase polarisation within European politics and provide Russia with greater scope to stage influence and sabotage operations against European targets.
Jun 127 min read


South Korea: Post-election Analysis - A New Era or More of the Same?
Leader of the Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, secured a landslide victory in South Korea’s snap presidential election, becoming the country’s 21st president. Although his victory provides a clear illustration of the population’s will for a change in leadership, Lee is inheriting a difficult situation. With deep domestic political divisions, a sharp economic downturn, great power foreign policy struggles, and escalating threats from North Korea to manage.
Jun 1110 min read


Mali - JNIM’s Escalation in Timbuktu Seeks Strategically Significant Target
On 02 June 2025, JNIM launched a series of coordinated attacks on key military targets in Timbuktu. The group claimed responsibility for attacking the Sidin Bekaye camp in the city and three checkpoints in its northern and eastern sectors. A suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack on a military barracks in the city centre and an artillery strike were aimed at Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and Russian Africa Corps personnel stationed at the Timbuktu mili
Jun 93 min read


What lies ahead for Panama amid ongoing unrest?
Tensions have escalated in the indigenous community of Arimae, Darién province, eastern Panama, after officers from the national Border Service (SENAFRONT) clashed with locals from the Emberá Wounaan during a protest on 05 June 2025. For nearly two months, demonstrators, including teachers, workers from (construction and banana industries), students, and healthcare workers, have barricaded and erected roadblocks along a major road that connects Panama to other Latin American
Jun 64 min read


China’s Answer to the Pentagon - "Beijing’s Military City"
China is developing a huge new military command centre that will dwarf the size of the Pentagon. The project underscores Beijing’s military ambitions at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions and endemic economic challenges.
The project suggests Beijing is increasingly prioritising the development of China’s warfighting capability. The plans could provide further evidence signalling the growing threat posed by China, particularly to Taiwan and in the South China Sea.
Jun 44 min read


Mozambique - Rising violence in Cabo Delgado and its impact on security
On 28 May 2025, militants affiliated with Islamic State (IS) reportedly claimed responsibility for a violent attack on the Katupa military base near Quinto Congresso, in the Macomia district of Cabo Delgado province. The attack, which took place on 27 May, resulted in the deaths of at least 10 soldiers, according to the group’s claim. The militants said that they also destroyed the camp, sharing photographs as evidence. Authorities in Mozambique have yet to comment on this in
Jun 23 min read


Trump the Peacebuilder? Impacts of American Peace Efforts on Global Stability
Renewed peacebuilding efforts by the Trump administration are deemed as unlikely to increase regional stability in their targeted areas.
· President Trump remains highly motivated by the desire to be perceived as a “dealmaker” by his domestic supporter base, and to secure concessions for his family’s business operations.
Jun 17 min read


Poland: Trzaskowski and Nawrocki to meet in presidential election runoff
Opinion polls suggest the race between the two candidates will be very close. Nawrocki, 42, targets conservatives, rural areas and voters frustrated with European Union (EU) policy, while Trzaskowski, 53, appeals to urban, pro-European voters and the centre-left.
May 303 min read


Mexico - The killing of two aides in Mexico City poses a challenge to the political landscape
Authorities often downplay the influence of major drug cartels in the city. They point to the fact that there are over 80,000 security cameras and a strong police presence in the city. Yet, a recent report from the US Drug Enforcement Administration indicated that powerful cartels, such as the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG have a significant presence in the city but maintain a low profile.
Politically motivated violence targeting politicians and government officials is commo
May 263 min read


South African Diplomacy under pressure: Can Ramaphosa fix South Africa-U.S. relations amid the “White Genocide” controversy?
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa met with U.S. President Donald Trump at the Oval Office in Washington on 21 May 2025 amid heightened diplomatic tensions between both countries. Ramaphosa, leading a high-profile delegation, aimed to reset ties, focusing on economic cooperation with the United States. Ahead of the meeting, there were concerns that the meeting could escalate into a heated media spectacle, as seen between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
May 234 min read


USA - Capital Jewish Museum Attack Sparks Security Concerns for Israelis Abroad
As the death toll continues to rise, impatience with Israel is growing among the international community to end the conflict in Gaza. However, Netanyahu’s political and legal motivations, coupled with the US’ continued support for Israel, stand in the way.
The recent killing of two Israeli embassy employees in Washington underscores the growing global threats facing Israelis, particularly those working in official roles. Risk mitigation strategies need to be taken to prote
May 224 min read


Lines in the Sand: Impacts and Challenges of Energy Co-operation Between Syria and Türkiye
An energy cooperation agreement between Syria and Türkiye presents new opportunities for energy supply chain diversification within the Middle East. The reopening of the Kirkuk–Baniyas oil pipeline and construction of a 400-kilovolt transmission line will likely foster closer energy and political cooperation between Türkiye and Syria. Türkiye is likely to perceive the dissolution of the PKK as an opportunity to expand energy and security activity within the Türkiye-Syria bord
May 134 min read


Targeted From Afar: The Rise of State-Sponsored Terrorism in the West
Though a successful counterterrorism operation, the recent arrests of five Iranian nationals underscore the persistent threat of state-sponsored terrorism across the UK.
Geopolitically motivated state-sponsored terrorism is a growing challenge across the West, demanding robust international cooperation to meet shared counter-terrorism objectives. As global tensions intensify, state-sponsored terrorism is likely to remain a persistent and complex challenge.
May 114 min read


Romania: Far-right candidate wins rescheduled presidential elections amid concerns of Russian interference
On 04 May 2025, Romania held its first round of the rescheduled presidential elections after the Constitutional Court annulled the results of the first round of the November 2024 presidential election due to evidence of a Russian interference campaign. The November elections saw far-right, pro-Russia candidate Călin Georgescu winning the election, but reports of “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” during the election period raised concerns about election integrity, prompting
May 94 min read


Brazil: Police foil attempted bomb attack at Lady Gaga concert in “Operation Fake Monster”
The incident highlights an ongoing threat of violence against LGBTQ+ communities in Brazil, particularly during major events that celebrate inclusion. The suspects disguised themselves as “Little Monsters” on social media. This name is mostly used by fans of Gaga, and using it likely helped them avoid detection online. The suspect’s plan to target the LGBTQ+ community likely reflects reflects a rise the far-right extremism in the country.
May 83 min read


Afghanistan: The Taliban - From International Pariah to Russian Ally?
For many companies operating in the broader region, the prospect of greater Russian influence will be unwelcome. With terrorism continuing to pose a threat, companies operating in Central Asia face an ongoing threat to their infrastructure. Instability in Afghanistan and the Taliban’s limited ability to contain ISK could easily lead to cross-border attacks or unrest in other Central Asian states. Targeting oil and gas infrastructure could cause significant economic damage and
May 45 min read

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