Global

Over the night of Tuesday 09 to Wednesday 10 September 2025, 19 Russian drones were launched into Polish airspace as part of a broader drone attack on Ukraine. The incident required a multinational response from NATO, with several drones being shot down. Fears are growing that Putin is seeking to portray an image of power amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, while also testing Western resolve.

President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, during a press conference on 01 September 2025, made several remarks concerning reports that the U.S. government is increasing its military presence in the Southern Caribbean, aimed at targeting drug cartels in the region. Maduro expressed intentions to “declare a republic in arms” if U.S. forces launch an attack against his country. For several weeks, he had raised concerns about this naval deployment, comprising “8 ships with 1,200 mis

On 13 September 2025, central London will host two large, opposing demonstrations: Tommy Robinson’s “Free Speech Festival” and a counter-protest led by Stand Up To Racism (SUTR) and allied anti-fascist groups. Based on previous demonstrations organised and promoted by Tommy Robinson, attendance is likely to be in high tens of thousands. Organisers are claiming it could attract at least 150,000 'patriots' but quoting interest from at least 500,000 people and mark the biggest r

JNIM has pushed to expand from Burkina Faso toward Niger, and southward toward Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo over the years. Benin and Togo continue to face an increasing number of attacks, while Ghana remains on high alert due to its proximity to Burkina Faso and Togo and an ongoing chieftaincy crisis in the country’s north. Northern Togo has also seen a rise in attacks as militants target Togolese soldiers in the border areas.

Russia’s security and intelligence services have intensified sabotage and subversion operations across Eastern Europe, employing tactics from GPS signal jamming to arson attacks. The recent signal jamming attack conducted against Ursula von der Leyen’s plane in southern Bulgaria highlights the growing extent to which Russian operatives are willing and able to target high-profile political figures.

Contemplating a future conflict involving China tends to evoke scenarios such as an invasion of Taiwan, a border escalation with India, or even a confrontation with the United States. However, with Beijing’s increasing assertiveness on the international stage reshaping power dynamics, the number of potential flashpoints is growing.

On 31 July 2025, China raised concerns over potential security risks in Nvidia’s H20 artificial intelligence (AI) chip, casting uncertainty over the US company's sales prospects in China. In particular, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) took issue with the proposal for the chips to include tracking and positioning functions.

Barros’s dismissal underscores ongoing power struggles as President Sissoco clings to power ahead of the upcoming November 2025 elections. The upcoming elections may face credibility issues due to the fact that CNE has lost its authority to function legitimately. Continued tensions between the government and opposition may lead to unrest in the near future, particularly if further actions taken by Sissoco’s government undermine the opposition's role in Guinea-Bissau’s p

The recurring anti-movement demonstrations have continually highlighted Angola’s questionable political leadership and deep rooted economic challenges. The situation places President João Lourenço, and his administration under scrutiny for clamping down on protesters and for police brutality against civilians. Although calm has been restored to most areas where violence occurred, the risk of renewed protests remains, as the government has yet to complete the subsidy removal p

Ghana’s northern porous borders and Bawku's proximity to Togo and Burkina Faso make it a critical national security concern, mainly due to the spread of jihadist activities in the Sahel and extremists’ expansionist ambitions in the coastal region. The prolonged conflict has led to the indefinite closure of key businesses, crippling economic activity and local governance, risking long-term economic marginalisation.

Arguably, the key to understanding Türkiye’s rise can be found in its internal politics, where two major developments have reshaped the nation’s power structures in recent weeks. Firstly, the disbanding of the PKK, announced by leader Abdullah Ocalan in mid-May 2025, will significantly reduce security tensions in Türkiye’s southern and eastern regions, allowing for an expansion of the central government’s presence in these previously unstable areas.

On 24 July 2025, the International Criminal Court (ICC) convicted two ex-militia commanders, Alfred Yekatom and Patrice Edouard Ngaïssona, of multiple war crimes and crimes against humanity. Their crimes included the killings of predominantly Muslim civilians and a deliberate attack on a religious building during the conflict that erupted between 2013 and 2014.

he arrests suggest that Hasm retains operational capability and the group’s intentions to resurface, contrary to previous reports that the movement has been suppressed. Hasm’s propaganda video also strongly suggests efforts to ramp up recruitment by appealing to disillusioned youth. Egyptian authorities are likely to intensify counterterrorism operations in areas such as Cairo, Faiyum, Damietta, and Beheira.

Far-right mobilisation may intensify in the coming weeks, particularly around asylum hotels and key symbolic dates, with a heightened risk of escalation and social unrest at some confirmed anti-immigration protests that could attract participants with disruptive or extremist affiliations. The spread of misinformation appears to be an increasingly influential driver of protest activity, with unverified claims alone capable of triggering rapid mobilisation and significant po

Despite war appearing to be an unlikely outcome, the prospect has become more realistic than a few months ago. Considering Thailand’s overwhelming military strength relative to Cambodia, it is unsurprising that Phnom Penh would seek to avoid escalating the matter too far at the current time. Additionally, while there have been clashes over Preah Vihear before, a full-scale war has not broken out yet.

Türkiye remains particularly alert to the threat of both intercommunal violence and Israeli military expansion. Ankara’s backing of President al-Sharaa is assessed to have played a significant role in the leader’s ascent to power, and continues to remain a critical factor in ensuring the regime’s present survival.

France’s latest withdrawal adds to the growing wave of anti-colonial sentiments and perceived threats to sovereignty, particularly towards France across Africa. Anti-French protests were organised in Mali, Senegal, Niger and Burkina Faso as protesters demanded the departure of French troops and a reassertion of national sovereignty. In 2021, several French-owned businesses were torched and looted during mass demonstrations in Senegal.

Cenit has suspended oil pumping operations following an incident where unknown individuals attacked a section of the 773-kilometrtes Cano Limon-Covenas oil pipeline with explosives on 13 July 2025 in the eastern part of the country. The attack caused spillage near the rural Agua Santa village in Arauca department which prompted the company to activate emergency and contingency plan to mitigate any environmental risks.

U.S. President Donald Trump hosted leaders from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal at the White House for a three-day summit that began with a working lunch in the State Dining Room on 09 July 2025. A high-stakes summit designed to reassess American influence across a continent. Each of these countries is currently facing a 10% tariff on exports to the U.S. 

If Xi Jinping’s political standing weakens or China’s internal challenges deepen, the appeal of escalating tensions over Taiwan as a means of distraction could grow. Alternatively, if Beijing concludes that its military advantage over Taiwan is at its peak and that waiting would risk a shift in the strategic balance, it may be judged that it is now or never. There are multiple scenarios under which an invasion could be triggered. But just how long China is willing to wait rem